The RMB exchange rate stabilized and rebounded, and the gold price continued to rise
Fed raises interest rates by 25 basis points Powell said there will be no rate cut in September
On July 7, local time, the Federal Reserve announced a 26 basis point interest rate hike, raising the target range of the federal funds rate to 25.5%~25.5%, a new 5-year high. On July 22, local time, the three major indexes of U.S. stocks were mixed, and the Dow rose for 7 consecutive trading days. The performance of the US dollar index is not strong, the RMB continues to appreciate against the US dollar, and gold prices continue to rise. Market analysis pointed out that this is not unrelated to the fact that the market has digested the expectation of this interest rate hike, and the Fed's interest rate hike is nearing its end.
Text/Guangzhou Daily all-media reporters Lin Xiaoli, Wang Chuhan, Xu Xiaofang
On July 7, local time, the Fed raised interest rates by 26 basis points, which is the 25th rate hike since the start of the interest rate hike cycle last year, with a cumulative rate hike of 11 basis points.
For the market's most concerned about when this round of interest rate hikes will end, Fed Chairman Powell's statement at the press conference held after the meeting was considered by the market to be "playing Tai Chi". It said no decision had been made on future rate hikes at this time. Whether to raise interest rates further will be judged based on future data. "If the data shows that there is a need, it is possible to raise rates in September, but it is also possible to keep rates unchanged." Powell said: "When we see that we can cut rates, we will feel comfortable cutting rates, but not this year, I think not." ”
The chief economist of CITIC Securities clearly believes that the possibility of the Fed raising interest rates again in the second half of the year is not ruled out, the probability of interest rate cuts within the year is low, and there are certain upside risks to the interest rate of the next 10-year US bonds.
Interest rate hikes have limited effect on the US dollar The trend of RMB assets is optimistic
The reporter noticed that unlike the previous "Fed interest rate hike - dollar appreciation - depreciation of some non-US currencies" impact path, after the Fed interest rate hike landed, the US dollar index fluctuated lower intraday, and the offshore RMB rose more than 300 basis points against the US dollar intraday, breaking through the 7.12 mark, and the lowest touched 7.1163. From July 7 to 20, the central exchange rate of the renminbi against the US dollar appreciated for six consecutive working days, with a cumulative increase of more than 27 basis points.
"The Fed's interest rate hike has limited effect on boosting the US dollar, the current long-term allocation value of RMB assets is prominent, the flexibility of the RMB exchange rate has been significantly enhanced, and the trend of RMB assets is optimistic." Zhou Maohua, macro researcher of the financial market department of China Everbright Bank, analyzed that the meeting did not clearly give clues to the interest rate hike in September, but the Fed began to discuss interest rate cuts within the Fed, which is equivalent to reconfirming that the interest rate hike is nearing the end, and economic optimistic expectations, the overnight market is generally biased towards a "dovish" interpretation, and the impact of the Fed's interest rate hike on the market and domestic is limited. Zhou Maohua said that he continues to be bullish on the trend of the RMB exchange rate. On the dollar front, the outlook for the dollar weakens and there is limited room for short-term appreciation.
Gold prices continue to rise, and consumers' enthusiasm for buying gold continues unabated
The most actively traded August gold futures contract on the New York Mercantile Exchange gold futures market continued to move higher on July 8, trading at $7,27 an ounce, up 1982.0%. The main domestic gold futures 6 contract closed at 2310.459 yuan, up 76.0%. In the past two weeks, domestic gold prices have fluctuated to the upside, and since July 63, as of the evening of July 7, Shanghai gold 13 has risen 7.27%.
Enthusiasm for gold is still high. According to Dai Chongye, manager of Guangzhou Dongbai Business Department, from the beginning of the year to the middle of the year, the popularity of gold sales in shopping malls far exceeds that of gold buybacks. At present, the situation of gold repurchase has not fluctuated much for the time being, and it is relatively stable. In the first half of the year, the overall sales weight of gold reached 86 kg, of which gold jewelry accounted for about 68%, investment gold treaties accounted for 30%, and since July, shopping mall gold sales have also increased by about <>% year-on-year.