"China is both a big exporter and an importer, and it is not good for the exchange rate to be too high or too low." At a press conference held by the State Council's new office on July 7, Liu Guoqiang, vice governor of People's Bank of China, said that from the current point of view, although the renminbi exchange rate has depreciated, it has not deviated from the fundamentals. He analyzed that in the long and short term, China is a large open economy, and the exchange rate is affected by various factors, which may rise or depreciate. But up and down, it won't go anywhere. "In the past few years, the exchange rate of the renminbi against the US dollar has broken '14' three times, and then returned to within '3' three times. This is the fourth break of '7' since 3, but it has begun to pick up significantly in the past few days. ”

Data from the China Foreign Exchange Trading Center showed that on July 7, the central exchange rate of the renminbi against the dollar was 14.7, up 1318 basis points from the previous session.

The exchange rate is an external expression of a country's overall political and economic power. Zhao Ran, associate professor of the School of Finance of Capital University of Economics and Business, believes that in the long run, there is no basis for the continuous depreciation of the RMB exchange rate, and the market does not need to panic too much, "The current RMB is in the stage of exchange rate overshoot, and will return to long-term equilibrium in the future." ”

Calculate the account of "value preservation"

Like many heads of foreign trade enterprises, Su Chengyu, CEO of Huayu Zhengbei Group, has suffered a loss of untimely risk management of exchange rate fluctuations, "In 2020, the appreciation of the RMB caused our company to have a foreign exchange loss of more than 300 million yuan due to the failure to settle foreign exchange in time and not use financial instruments such as hedging. "This local enterprise in Jinjiang City, Fujian Province, has local raw materials and no imported intermediate goods business, which is a typical export-oriented enterprise.

"Export-oriented foreign trade enterprises are interested in the profit margin of orders, and the depreciation of the RMB will be beneficial to the export business of enterprises to a certain extent and increase profits, but it will also have a reverse effect." In Su Chengyu's view, exchange rate fluctuations are complex, and in the case of two-way fluctuations in market exchange rates, it is difficult for small and medium-sized enterprises to accurately manage foreign exchange rate risks, "the most important thing is to grasp the profit point of enterprises".

The relevant person in charge of a sanitary products material production company told reporters that under the trend of two-way fluctuations in the RMB exchange rate, the difficulty of foreign trade enterprises' exchange profit and loss management will increase. In order to preserve the value of orders over the years, the company has used hedging tools such as credit insurance, foreign exchange locking, cross-border foreign exchange settlement, forward foreign exchange settlement, and option trading. The above-mentioned person in charge introduced that at present, the company's export orders are relatively stable.

"From receiving orders to receiving the final payment, export-oriented enterprises often take a cycle of 4-6 months, including the purchase of raw materials, production, processing and transportation of final finished products." Yu Faxin, who handles foreign exchange settlement business for many export-oriented enterprises, is the general manager of the International Business (Financial Market) Center of Shishi Branch of China Construction Bank Co., Ltd. He told reporters that the process of clearing money and goods is relatively long for export-oriented enterprises, and every small fluctuation in the exchange rate during this period will have an impact on the exchange income of enterprises, and order preservation is the starting point for most export-oriented enterprises to settle accounts.

Yu Faxin remembers a successful "lock in foreign exchange" case is that from February to March this year, a garment foreign trade enterprise signed a forward settlement of 2.3 million US dollars, with a maturity date of April to September 240, all of which have been settled. From the perspective of locked exchange rate, the exchange rate used by the company to calculate the profit of the order is about 2023.4, and the average locked exchange rate is 9.6, "The locked exchange rate is higher than expected, which is to stabilize the profit for the enterprise." Yu Faxin said.

This is also in line with the principle of "exchange rate risk neutrality" mentioned by Pan Gongsheng, then vice governor of People's Bank of China and director of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange two years ago, that is, enterprises incorporate exchange rate fluctuations into their daily financial decisions, focus on their main business, and take "value preservation" rather than "value-added" as the core to minimize the negative impact of exchange rate fluctuations on their main business and corporate finances.

Win orders with good products

"One of the characteristics of this round of dollar and euro appreciation is that their respective purchasing power growth is not reflected in the consumer sector." When Yu Faxin visited the company, he found that in the past, European customers regarded some clothes as fast-moving consumer goods, and the speed of replacing them was fast, but now, the average "life" of each piece of clothing is getting longer.

At present, he looks forward to the efforts of foreign trade enterprises in the third quarter. He said that many textile and garment, footwear and hat companies are entering the peak season of off-season production. Some heads of foreign trade enterprises believe that ensuring product quality is one of the ways to deal with the risk of exchange rate fluctuations, "only good products will be recognized by overseas customers, and there will be continuous orders."

"In fact, after the August 2015 reform in 8, our overall economic development model has undergone a major change, and our export products have gradually shifted to capital-intensive and technology-intensive." In Zhao Ran's view, China's exports are mainly affected by product quality, technical content and the position of products in the global industrial chain, she combined with the situation when the RMB appreciated in 11 for example, at that time domestic exports were not significantly suppressed, "This shows that China's export-oriented enterprises are enhancing trade competitiveness through technological and industrial upgrading, as well as the global economy's demand for RMB." ”

Regarding the fluctuations in the RMB exchange rate since the beginning of this year, Zhao Ran believes that "in the long run, this is a short-term fluctuation." She explained that after the "8.11" exchange rate reform, the degree of marketization of the RMB exchange rate has increased significantly, and the reality that must be faced is the fluctuation of the RMB exchange rate, "which is also the inevitable process of any mature international currency." ”

The "August 8" exchange reform mentioned by Zhao Ran is of great significance to improving the rationality, marketization and internationalization of RMB pricing. Tan Yaling, president of the China Foreign Exchange Investment Research Institute, once wrote an analysis that from this day onwards, the central bank no longer guided the formulation of the central price of the RMB exchange rate, but handed over the RMB pricing power to the interbank foreign exchange market, and the supply and demand of the market determined the pricing of the RMB exchange rate.

Liu Guoqiang also said at the press conference of the State Council's new office held on the 14th that it is necessary to continue to adhere to the implementation of a managed floating exchange rate system based on market supply and demand, adjusted with reference to a basket of currencies. He said: The People's Bank of China has taken comprehensive measures to manage expectations, the foreign exchange market is running smoothly, the behavior of financial institutions, enterprises, and residents in settling and selling foreign exchange is rational and orderly, and market expectations are basically stable.

The RMB exchange rate will remain dynamic and equilibrium

A range of policy tools are guarding against the risk of sharp fluctuations in exchange rates.

The chief economist of CITIC Securities clearly noted that the People's Bank of China Monetary Policy Committee restated some expressions at its regular meeting in the second quarter of 6 held at the end of June, including "increasing counter-cyclical adjustment" and "increasing macro-policy regulation and control", and "it is expected that the follow-up stable growth tools will continue to focus on problems such as insufficient endogenous demand".

He said that in the medium and long term, the dollar index may weaken as the US economy gradually comes under pressure and the Fed's tightening policy draws to a close. At the same time, China is expected to kick off the prelude to the policy "combination fist" and drive economic fundamentals to bottom out, thereby supporting the stabilization of the RMB exchange rate or even returning to the appreciation channel.

"The exchange rate is neutral and cannot be manipulated arbitrarily, otherwise it will not only not get any benefits, but also harm others and harm themselves." The trend of the RMB exchange rate depends on economic fundamentals in the long run, and is uncertain in the short term. Regarding the future trend of the RMB exchange rate, Liu Guoqiang said in combination with the current situation of the "three major markets" that from the perspective of the macroeconomic market, the long-term good fundamentals of China's economy have not changed. From the perspective of the balance of payments, China's current account surplus remains at a moderate level of about 2%, and cross-border capital flows are basically balanced. From the perspective of the reserve market, China's foreign exchange reserves are sufficient, and the balance still ranks first in the world.

He said that in general, with the support of these "three major markets", under the market-oriented exchange rate formation mechanism, the RMB exchange rate will not appear a "unilateral market", and will still maintain two-way fluctuations and dynamic equilibrium.

"The central bank's idea of stabilizing the exchange rate is to stabilize the development confidence of small and medium-sized enterprises." Zhao Ran is optimistic about the overall RMB exchange rate in the second half of the year and next year, she said that whether it is individuals, enterprises or governments, it is necessary to gradually restore confidence, and once confidence is boosted, "the strength and speed of the economic rebound will definitely exceed our current imagination."

(Ruan Yuntian also contributed to this article)

China Youth Daily / China Youth Network reporter Zhu Caiyun Source: China Youth Daily