Per edited Bilu Name
Liquid funds are looking for the "optimal solution" for wealth appreciation. On the evening of May 5, starting from the "first shot" of the industry by commercial banks such as Ping An Bank and Dongying Bank, this interbank "interest rate cut" action has become more and more intense.
According to a report by the Qianjiang Evening News on May 5, Ms. Lu, who lives in Linping, Hangzhou, also has a call deposit of 19,30 yuan in her name, and after the interest rate is reduced, the annual income is less than 1000,33 yuan. In addition to call deposits, Ms. Lu also has 1,2 yuan in regular deposits, which are 3-year, 1-year and 9-year respectively, with interest rates of 2.4%, 3.<>% and <>% respectively. The account manager told her that in the future, when these deposits mature, they will most likely be reduced.
However, at present, there is still a way to "eat" high interest - buying large certificates of deposit. But now it is difficult to find large deposits, and many products are either sold out or only support designated customer groups. According to the reporter's understanding, the difficulty of buying medium and large deposit certificates is comparable to grabbing train tickets.
Behind the above phenomenon, on the one hand, the national household deposits decreased by more than one trillion yuan in April, on the other hand, banks have reduced deposit interest rates since April, long-term fixed deposit interest rates of more than 4% are rare, and deposit interest rates have entered the "4 era". In the face of the phenomenon of deposit relocation and cross-regional movement, the more urgent thing for commercial banks at present is to stabilize the net interest margin. On the whole, banks mostly optimize the debt structure through "one decrease and one increase", that is, reducing high-interest deposits and increasing low-interest deposits. "It is not easy to expand low-cost deposit sources, and the company's assessment in this area is also increasing." A number of bankers believe that in the long run, controlling the cost of debt is conducive to easing the pressure on interest margins and ensuring certain profit margins.
Buying a large certificate of deposit is like grabbing a train ticket
According to the daily Linping report, the reporter visited a bank branch in Hangzhou as a customer. The staff said that at present, most of the high-interest deposits are large-amount certificates of deposit, the deposit period is generally 3 years, and the minimum deposit amount is 20,30 or <>,<>.
But now it is difficult to find large deposits, and many products are either sold out or only support designated customer groups. Last month, the bank was approved a large deposit certificate quota of 5000 million, and the large-amount deposit certificate product was listed at 9:30, and it was robbed at 9:33, which is comparable to the rush of train tickets. The reporter casually flipped through the APP of major banks, and on the SPD Bank APP, there is a product with an interest rate of 3.1% for large-sum deposit certificates, which only supports new customers to buy.
On the China Merchants Bank app, large deposit certificates with an interest rate of 3.1% have been sold out.
Under the background of the continuous narrowing of bank net interest margin and the increase of debt pressure, since the beginning of this year, the deposit interest rate of the banking industry has undergone three rounds of adjustment, and the team of banks that have lowered the deposit interest rate has gradually grown. From the latest data, the decline in deposit interest rates has had a certain impact on residents' saving habits. Many experts believe that bank deposits are "moving" to financial management.
Data recently released by the central bank showed that household deposits fell by 4.1 trillion yuan in April. But Shanghai is increasing "against the trend". Data show that Shanghai RMB deposits increased by 2.4 billion yuan in April, a year-on-year increase of 1215.1084 billion yuan, of which household deposits increased by 131.40 billion yuan, an increase of <> billion yuan year-on-year.
In this regard, Song Xuetao, chief analyst of Tianfeng Securities, said that the decline in residents' deposits in April was due to the wealth management of residents' deposits on the one hand, and the increase in the scale of prepayment on the other hand, of which the former was the core reason.
Recently, the chief economist of CITIC Securities clearly released a research report saying that the reduction of deposit interest rates has weakened the attractiveness of depositors, the phenomenon of "deposit moving" may be strengthened, and individuals may transfer deposit funds to consumer investment and other activities. The lowering of the cap on deposit interest rates has reduced interest income for savers, and the attractiveness of deposits as an asset allocation option has declined. According to the central bank's recent questionnaire, due to the recovery of residents' income confidence and the recovery of consumption, investment and other scenarios, residents' willingness to save has weakened marginally compared with the end of last year. This is also confirmed by the decline in household deposits in April, and it is expected that the decline in willingness to save will continue in the short term until it returns to normal levels.
How can ordinary people stabilize their "money bags"?
Industry insiders believe that the current net interest margin of banks continues to narrow, and banks need to reduce deposit costs. Reducing the cost of deposits can help ease the pressure on banks' liabilities, while appropriately lowering deposit rates may also help households convert savings into consumption.
The first quarterly report shows that in the first quarter of this year, the net interest margin of many A-share listed banks decreased compared with the end of 2022, and the net interest margin continued to narrow, which affected the revenue of some banks.
Wang Yifeng, chief analyst of the banking industry of Everbright Securities, said in the research report that the current assessment pressure of small and medium-sized banks is generally higher than that of state-stock banks, and the safety margin of some small and medium-sized banks to separate the passing line is insufficient, considering that the EPA and MPA (macro-prudential assessment system) have introduced deposit interest rate pricing as deduction points, and the overall assessment has become stricter, and it is expected that a considerable number of small and medium-sized banks will implement pricing reduction requirements.
Wang Yifeng believes that there are still cards in the control of deposit costs, and "demand-like" deposits are an important starting point. It is expected that the subsequent self-regulatory management of deposit pricing includes, but is not limited to: incorporating innovative demand deposits such as agreement deposits and call deposits into the management of the self-regulatory mechanism; Interbank Deposit Shell Agreement deposits need to be corrected; "Fake" structured deposits with too low option value must still be regulated, and the total (guaranteed income + option value) of structured deposits may be included in the upper limit of the self-regulatory mechanism at the same time, further reducing the interest rate of structured deposits.
Liao Zhiming, chief analyst of the banking industry of China Merchants Securities, mentioned in the research report that the economy will recover in 2023, and the urgency of further reducing loan interest rates is not high. However, banks generally use volume top-ups, which makes the loan price war fierce, and it is difficult for loan interest rates to rise.
Considering the impact of repricing of existing loans, the pressure on bank interest margins will increase in 2023, and controlling deposit costs has become a top priority. Small and medium-sized banks may have an incentive to take the initiative to follow up on the reduction of deposit rates. However, considering the savings income of ordinary people, it is unlikely that national banks will further cut deposit rates significantly in the short term. In the long run, the decline in deposit rates is the general trend.
According to a report by Qianjiang Evening News on May 5, Dong Ximiao, chief researcher of CMF Finance, said: It is expected that the deposit interest rate may still decline in the future, but considering that the deposit interest rate is currently at a low level, and with the macroeconomic recovery and rising financing demand, the space for the future decline of the deposit interest rate is relatively limited.
Dong Ximiao said: "In the long run, the decline in the market's risk-free interest rate is the general trend. For individual residents, if there are more medium and long-term deposits in the asset allocation, the yield may decline. Dong Ximiao suggested that residents should balance the relationship between risk and return, and if they pursue stable returns, they can appropriately allocate cash management wealth management products and monetary funds in addition to deposits.
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