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In Jeddah, Saudi Arabia poses as a unifier of the "Arab family"

Mohamed bin Salman (pictured) wants to create a regional climate more conducive to achieving his main goal, "Vision 2030", an ambitious plan to modernize Saudi Arabia. AP - Leon Neal

Text by: Guilhem Delteil Follow

7 min

Saudi Arabia is hosting, this Friday, May 19, the summit of the Arab League in Jeddah, on the shores of the Red Sea. A summit already marked by the announced presence of the Syrian president. Bashar al-Assad was invited to this regional meeting for the first time in twelve years. For the host country, this summit must mark a turning point in the contemporary history of the region.

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From our Special Envoy in Jeddah,

It is a full Arab League that meets this Friday in Jeddah. On Sunday, May 7, the regional organization agreed to reintegrate Syria, suspended in 2011 because of the repression of the protest movement targeting the regime of Bashar al-Assad. But after being ostracized for twelve years, the Syrian president makes a remarkable comeback, this Friday, on the regional scene. A return desired by a growing number of countries in the region but orchestrated by Saudi Arabia: it is it that has managed to remove the last objections of Member States, such as Qatar and Morocco. And it is at her home that this return takes place.

The official photo of this meeting will bring together the twenty-two Member States around the Saudi Crown Prince and Prime Minister, Mohamed bin Salman. An important image for the young leader who then poses as head of the family and who increases his political weight. "Saudi Arabia is already the leading economic power in the Arab world, by far. But it intends to play its full role. Both because of its status as a custodian of Islam's holy sites, but also as a politically essential country in the Middle East," said Bertrand Besancenot, France's ambassador to Riyadh from 2007 to 2016.

Regional stability

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It is a projection of Saudi Arabia's growing role in the region," confirms Aziz Alghashian, associate researcher at Lancaster University's SEPAD: "In his speeches, Mohamed bin Salman always stresses the need for regional stability. This has been at the heart of his concerns in recent years. And I think he is working for the establishment of a new regional order. This change of position vis-à-vis Syria is part of it.

This diplomatic success establishes Mohamed bin Salman as leader of the Arab world. But the crown prince intends to use it with other countries as well. In its relations with Iran in particular. The restoration of diplomatic relations between the two countries has not resolved all differences between them, and it is therefore important for it to weigh as a regional leader and not just as the leader of a country. But "we have the impression that Mohamed bin Salman wants to send a message to the US administration, which always shuns him to tell them that Saudi Arabia is now the heavyweight of the Arab world and that from now on, nothing is done in the Middle East without it or without the crown prince," said Hasni Abidi, director of the Geneva-based Center for Studies and Research on the Arab and Mediterranean World (Cermam). "So it's a message sent more abroad to establish its acceptability and international legitimacy.

Vision 2030

However, this diplomatic success also has implications for the domestic scene. By posing as the leader of the Arab world, by managing to reduce the tensions that cross the region, the powerful crown prince also strengthens his stature as a leader among his population and tries to soften his image after a brutal beginning: the arrest in 2017 of sixty Saudi princes and dignitaries accused of corruption and expropriated of their property, the war in Yemen, the murder of journalist and opponent Jamal Kashoggi for which he was blamed by the US intelligence services.

Most importantly, Mohamed bin Salman is creating a regional climate more conducive to achieving his main objective. "Today, Riyadh's first concern is to successfully implement the 2030 vision," its ambitious plan to modernize the country over the next decade, said former ambassador Bertrand Besancenot. But to succeed, it needs to attract both foreign and domestic investors. "For this, we must 'calm the game'. Because when we look at the geographical situation of Saudi Arabia, it is surrounded by countries that are either at war, or in difficulties, or countries with which they have problems, "says the former French diplomat.

Sudan, "a major crisis"

In recent years, Saudi Arabia has lifted the blockade imposed on Qatar, begun negotiations with the Houthis, the rebels it is fighting in Yemen, re-engaged in dialogue with Iran, reintegrated Syria into the regional landscape, changed its positions on Iraqi and Lebanese issues; It is trying to bring about a more peaceful regional climate. But the Sudanese crisis is a powerful reminder that the Arab world remains turbulent. And the fighting between the army loyal to General Al Burhan and the paramilitaries of General Hemeti's Rapid Support Forces has direct consequences for Saudi Arabia.

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Sudan is a major crisis " for Riyadh, says Hasni Abidi. The country is just a stone's throw from Saudi Arabia, on the other side of the Red Sea. However, this coastline is at the heart of Mohamed bin Salman's 2030 vision: several projects are to see the light of day on its coasts. "Nobody wants to see a Syria, or a Syrian-style scenario, on their landing," Alghashian said.

The Saudi authorities quickly took up the case. Riyadh has evacuated more than 8,500 people from the country. But above all, there is a "renewed initiative of the Saudis and the crown prince to convince the two belligerents to negotiate a humanitarian truce that could lead to a political agreement for a ceasefire," said Hasni Abidi, director of Cermam. "It's not won yet. But there is a commitment from Saudi Arabia on the Sudanese issue and I think that Riyadh is better placed than its Arab peers to intervene and act as a major mediator in this file. »

The Palestinian issue returns as a major concern

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The quad – that is to say the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, the United Kingdom and the United States – has seized the Sudanese file. But it is Saudi Arabia that is maneuvering within this group," says Aziz Alghashian, for whom the country "should capitalize on these efforts within the Arab League". At this Jeddah summit, Riyadh is expected to obtain support from other countries in the region to conduct the negotiations, obtain a mandate from the organization. "We should see a regional approach and not a bilateral or trilateral one," the Saudi researcher anticipates.

If Sudan has emerged at the top of the summit agenda, Saudi Arabia should also want to discuss the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. "In recent weeks, the country has received both the president of the Palestinian Authority and the leaders of other Palestinian factions," said Hasni Abidi, who sees it as a sign of Saudi commitment to this issue. An observation shared by Aziz Alghashian who evokes the prospect of strengthening the Arab peace initiative. This peace plan adopted in 2002 by the regional organization at the initiative of Saudi Arabia has been neglected in recent years by Arab countries, which have favoured individual rather than collective approaches to this issue. Mohamed bin Salman now wants to put it back on the table. Because, says Aziz Alghashian, "it will be very difficult to keep an image of leader of the Arab world without progress on the Israeli-Palestinian issue".

>> READ ALSO: Syria's return to the Arab League should not change the country's economic situation

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Read on on the same topics:

• Saudi Arabia
• Arab League
• Diplomacy
• Mohammed ben Salman
• Syria
• Bashar al-Assad
• Sudan
• Palestinian Territories