China News Service, March 9th (China News Finance reporter Xie Yiguan) On the 9th, the National Bureau of Statistics announced the national consumer price (CPI) data for February.
Affected by factors such as the high comparison base in the same period last year, the CPI rose by 1.0% year-on-year in February, returning to the "1 era".
CPI rise and fall trend chart.
From the Office for National Statistics.
Year-on-year increase in CPI fell significantly in February
According to Dong Lijuan, chief statistician of the Urban Department of the National Bureau of Statistics, from a year-on-year perspective, the CPI rose by 1.0% in February, a drop of 1.1 percentage points from the previous month.
"The year-on-year increase has fallen more, mainly due to the wrong month of the Spring Festival, and the comparison base in the same period last year was relatively high."
Specifically, food prices rose by 2.6%, a decrease of 3.6 percentage points from the previous month, affecting an increase of about 0.48 percentage points in the CPI; non-food prices rose by 0.6%, a decrease of 0.6 percentage points from the previous month, affecting an increase of about 0.50 percentage points in the CPI .
Among foodstuffs, the prices of potatoes, fresh fruits, eggs and poultry rose by 14.4%, 8.5%, 7.9% and 6.4% respectively, and the increases were all down from the previous month; the price of pork rose by 3.9%, a drop of 7.9 percentage points; The prices of vegetables and aquatic products changed from rising to falling, with a decrease of 3.8% and 1.5% respectively.
"According to calculations, in the 1.0% year-on-year increase in CPI in February, the carry-over effect of price changes in the previous year was about 0.7 percentage points, and the impact of new price increases was about 0.3 percentage points." Dong Lijuan said that after deducting the core of food and energy prices The CPI rose by 0.6% year-on-year, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month.
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Prices of pork and fresh vegetables drop month-on-month
From a month-on-month perspective, the CPI in February turned from an increase of 0.8% in the previous month to a decrease of 0.5%.
Among them, food prices turned from a 2.8% increase in the previous month to a 2.0% decrease, which affected the CPI to drop by about 0.38 percentage points.
Dong Lijuan mentioned that in food, consumer demand fell after the festival, coupled with the warmer weather and sufficient supply, the prices of most fresh food fell. Among them, the prices of pork and fresh vegetables fell by 11.4% and 4.4% respectively, which together affected the CPI drop by about 0.28 percentage points, accounting for more than 50% of the total decline in CPI.
Data map: Citizens of Lanzhou choose and buy vegetables at the Wuquan Vegetable Market in Chengguan District.
Photo by Li Yalong
Recently, a reporter from Zhongxin Finance and Economics noticed that the price of front and back pork in a supermarket in Beijing has dropped to 13.8 yuan per catty, which is 3 yuan cheaper per catty than before January, and 6 yuan cheaper per catty if compared with the beginning of January. .
CITIC Securities pointed out that after the festival, farms and slaughter companies resumed work one after another, and the excess supply before the festival was postponed to after the Spring Festival. The supply of live pigs increased, but consumption was weak after the festival, and pork prices continued to fall, constituting the biggest drag on food items.
CPI in February may become a relatively low point for the whole year
According to the monitoring of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, in the ninth week of 2023 (February 27-March 5), the weekly average price of pork wholesale market is 20.98 yuan per kilogram, a month-on-month increase of 0.7%, and a year-on-year increase of 13.9%; the weekly average price of egg wholesale market 10.19 yuan per kilogram, down 0.2% month-on-month, and 18.8% higher than the same period last year; the average weekly price of 28 kinds of vegetables under key monitoring was 5.65 yuan per kilogram, down 2.2% from the previous month, and 1.2% lower than the same period last year; the average weekly price per kilogram of six kinds of fruits under key monitoring 7.57 yuan, a month-on-month increase of 0.3%, and a year-on-year increase of 12.3%.
As one of the important factors affecting the changes in CPI food prices, the price of pigs has rebounded recently.
However, Meng Weixiao, an analyst at Zheshang Securities, said, "The recent slowdown in hog slaughtering and IOTA shipments reflects that there is no obvious positive support for downstream demand. We maintain the previous judgment of a weak rebound in hog prices, and the height of hog price rebound may be lower than market expectation."
In the view of Wen Bin, chief economist of China Minsheng Bank, due to various reasons, the CPI in February may become a relatively low point for the whole year.
"First, the negative factors such as the dislocation of the Spring Festival have gradually subsided; second, the price of pork has basically bottomed out, and the depressive effect on the overall CPI chain price will gradually weaken; third, with the recovery of the economy, my country's core CPI is expected to fall to the range above 1% year-on-year. The price of services and residences will rebound in a trend.”
"It is expected that the year-on-year increase in CPI will likely remain in the range of 1% to 2% in the next few months, and it is unlikely to break through the 3% inflation control target in the government work report within this year." Wen Bin said.
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