Not surprisingly, Zhou Heiya handed over a financial report with a sharp drop in performance.

On February 14, Zhou Heiya appeared on the Weibo hot search due to a sharp drop of more than 90% in net profit. The night before, Zhou Heiya announced that his net profit in 2022 is expected to be no less than 20 million yuan, a drop of more than 94% from the same period last year.

　　Can't sell duck products anymore?

This is the first reaction of many netizens after seeing the performance of Zhou Hei Ya, Juewei Food, and Huang Shanghuang.

In recent years, whenever lo-mei giants release financial reports, topics similar to "young people don't eat duck necks" will occupy the hot search list on Weibo. Behind this seemingly joke is the fact that the performance of the lo-mei giants has declined.

When consumption is sluggish, costs are rising, and the market structure has become a reality, the lo-mei giants may also realize that the "hurricane" of performance has become a thing of the past.

　　Collective decline in performance

　　On the evening of February 13, Zhou Heiya issued a profit warning on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. It is estimated that the net profit in 2022 will be no less than 20 million yuan, and the net profit in the same period in 2021 will be 342.4 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of more than 94%; the total income during the reporting period is expected to decrease year-on-year About 20%, the total revenue in the same period in 2021 will be 2.87 billion yuan.

This report card made "Zhou Hei Ya's performance drop by more than 90%" directly ranked second in the hot search on February 14.

　　"Some stores are temporarily closed, which has a certain impact on the company's sales profit; the rise in raw material prices has led to increased pressure on the cost side; exchange rate changes have led to increased exchange losses, which has a greater impact on the company's profits." This is Zhou Heiya's response to a reporter from Beijing Business Daily. reasons for the decline in performance.

When asked about the performance of the franchise, Zhou Heiya did not give any further response, but only said, "As the performance of the franchise has not been released yet, please pay attention to the company's expected release at the end of March 2023." Performance Announcement".

　　There are traces of Zhou Heiya's sharp decline in performance.

In January, affected by the rumor that "Zhou Heiya expects the company's net profit in 2023 to be only 150 million to 200 million yuan", Zhou Heiya's stock price fell by more than 20% in one day.

On January 12, Zhou Heiya issued a clarification announcement stating that the company’s business operations are normal. It also stated that it will strive to achieve an annual profit of 200 million yuan or more in 2023, and emphasized that “please note that this is a goal rather than a forecast.”

　　From the perspective of the industry, there is no need to be surprised that Zhou Hei Ya’s performance has declined. From the perspective of the entire industry, the lo-mei market has reached the ceiling, and the performance of the lo-mei giants has shown varying degrees of decline.

Juewei Food expects its net profit to be 220 million to 260 million yuan in 2022, a year-on-year decrease of 73.49% to 77.57%; deducting non-net profit from 250 million to 290 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of about 60% to 65%.

Huangshanghuang expects to make a profit of 30 million to 40 million yuan in 2022, a year-on-year decrease of 72% to 79%; non-net profit is expected to decline by more than 90%.

　　Xu Xiongjun, a strategic positioning expert and founder of Jiude Positioning Consulting Company, believes that the duck neck product itself is a non-rigid consumer product, and Zhou Hei Ya is the leading brand in the industry, which is obviously affected by the general environment.

Superimposed factors such as the impact of the epidemic on offline stores and the decline in purchasing power have caused a decline in the performance of Zhou Hei Ya and the overall braised duck neck food.

　　Unsold duck neck

　　Every time when the lo-mei giants release their financial reports, there will be topics such as duck necks that cannot be sold, and young people who do not eat duck necks. Search.

　　When hearing the question "Why don't you buy duck necks?", Ms. Wang from Chaoyang, Beijing asked back: "Why do you want to buy duck necks?" In her opinion, no matter whether it is Juewei, Huangshanghuang or Zhouhei Ya, all duck products are different. It's the same, but the price is not low. I can't find any reason to buy duck products as snacks.

"It doesn't feel worth it if you don't like food, and there are plenty of substitutes for those who love food."

　　"It's expensive and rare, and the price always goes up. You can buy a whole duck for dozens of yuan if you weigh it casually." Xiaojun is a duck lover, but the increasingly high price also makes her discouraged.

She posted a consumption bill. In July 2022, the prices of the small duck collarbone (180g) and black duck neck (240g) purchased at Juewei Duck Neck Chaoyang Tower Camp were 18.8 yuan and 24.8 yuan respectively. The prices of the two products with the same specification rose to 21.8 yuan and 28.8 yuan respectively.

　　Product price increases, consumer fatigue, and performance diving, the three giants of lo-mei show their fatigue before the sluggish performance.

But in the past, this was not the case for them.

In September 2012, Huangshanghuang was listed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange, becoming the first listed company in the lo-mei industry; four years later, in 2016, Zhou Heiya was listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange; in 2017, Juewei Foods was listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange.

During the glorious period, the performance of the three companies maintained rapid growth, and the number of stores also expanded significantly.

　　Juewei Food’s net profit growth rate from 2013 to 2019 has been no less than 20%, reaching a maximum of 31.93%; Huangshanghuang’s net profit has shown positive growth from 2016 to 2020, with a growth rate of up to 59.76%; The growth rate has been maintained, and the growth rate has begun to decline since 2018.

　　In terms of the number of stores, since 2014, Juewei Food has aggressively opened stores at a rate of more than 1,000 stores per year; from 2019 to 2021, the number of Zhou Hei Ya franchised stores has increased from 5 to 1,535; Opened "ten thousand stores".

　　Entering 2022, the financial reports of the three companies began to "fall and fall", and their net profits continued to decline.

As of the first half of 2022, the total number of Juewei Food stores is the largest, with 14,921; Huangshanghuang stores have 4,024; Zhouheiya stores have 3,160.

Among them, the number of Huangshanghuang stores has decreased by 257 compared with the end of December 2021.

　　Zhu Danpeng, an analyst in China's food industry, said that at the moment when the lo-mei category and its own brand have grown to the ceiling, there are great uncertainties in the growth of Juewei Food's performance.

However, Huangshanghuang's product structure, operating model, and overall system are not enough to support the current scale. When competition intensifies, store closures are bound to come.

　　"Whether the three giants of lo-mei can reproduce the era of rapid growth in the future will depend on many factors. First, whether the impact of the epidemic on the catering industry will be alleviated will be one of the important factors; second, whether companies can take effective measures to deal with the market Competition and fluctuations in raw material prices are also crucial. At the same time, the development of enterprises in terms of product innovation and channel expansion will also determine their future development direction and competitiveness." Industry insiders said.

　　Regarding the follow-up measures to boost performance, the reporter from Beijing Business Daily also interviewed Juewei Foods and Huangshanghuang, but no reply was received as of press time.

　　Gradual changes in the market pattern

　　Although the growth rate of the three giants has shown signs of weakness, the overall market of the lo-mei market is not small, and industry competition has become increasingly fierce, and the market is gradually moving towards category segmentation.

　　According to the "2022 Lo-Mei Category Development Report" released by Meituan, from 2018 to 2021, the compound annual growth rate of the lo-mei industry will be 12.3%. In 2022, the scale of China's braised food industry will be about 369.1 billion yuan.

　　In addition to the Big Three, Ziyan Foods, which has just been listed in 2022, has not yet disclosed its annual report. As of the third quarter of 2022, Ziyan Foods has a revenue of 2.742 billion yuan and a net profit of 228 million yuan attributable to the parent.

The time-honored Dezhou Braised Chicken has recently updated its prospectus to speed up the listing process.

The once "three pillars" pattern of the lo-mei capital market has gradually changed.

　　In the lo-mei sub-category, Shengxiangting, a hot stewed food brand, and Wang Xiaohalogen, an online celebrity braised-flavored snack brand, have both received round B financing; Huohao, a brand of boneless chicken feet, has completed a round A round of financing worth tens of millions of yuan; Just completed the angel round of financing... The new players of lo-mei who are vying to enter the game are starting a new round of competition in various subdivided tracks.

　　According to the industry, as the field of lo-mei becomes more diversified, brands and categories are gradually increasing, which has a significant impact on leading companies.

According to the current competitive situation, duck products and other lo-mei have reached the ceiling. If the three giants of lo-mei cannot innovate, upgrade, and iterate their product structure in the future to enhance their attractiveness, their performance may continue to decline.

　　Zhu Danpeng believes that with the disappearance of consumption scenes, the rise of supply chain costs, and the superposition of consumption fatigue and other factors, it may become more and more difficult for the three giants of lo-mei to grow their performance in the future.

　　Beijing Business Daily reporter Guo Xiujuan Zhang Han