China's new urban population has hit a 42-year low, falling below 10 million for the first time in 28 years

　　Author: Lin Xiaozhao

　　As economic development enters a new historical stage, my country's urbanization process is facing a shift in growth rate.

　　Based on the "China Statistical Yearbook 2022" and 2022 economic and social development data, a reporter from China Business News found that by the end of 2022, my country's urban permanent population will reach 920.71 million, an increase of 6.46 million compared with 2021, and the new urban population has hit a 42-year low.

　　Last year's new urban population hit a 42-year low

　　Since the reform and opening up, my country's urbanization rate has increased rapidly.

From the perspective of new urban population over the years, my country’s new urban population in the 1980s was 110 million, of which the cumulative increase in urban population in 1981, 1982, and 1984-1987 exceeded 10 million.

　　In the 10 years of the 1990s, the cumulative urban population increased by 142 million, an increase of 32 million over the 1980s.

What is particularly noteworthy is that after my country's urbanization rate reached 30% for the first time in 1996, my country's urbanization has entered an accelerated stage.

From 1996 to 2003, my country's annual new urban population exceeded 20 million.

Although the figures for 2004 and 2005 were below 20 million, they both exceeded 19 million.

　　In the first decade of the 21st century, only in 2008, affected by the international financial crisis, did the newly added urban population decline, but it also reached 17.7 million.

From the perspective of the first decade of the 21st century, the cumulative new urban population was 207.64 million, nearly 100 million more than in the 1980s.

　　Entering the second decade of the 21st century, with the in-depth development of my country's new industrialization, informatization and agricultural modernization and the implementation of the policy of urbanization of the agricultural transfer population, the new urban population has maintained a rapid growth trend. Among them, from 2010 to 2018 In 2009, the annual increase in urban population exceeded 20 million.

It also reached 19.93 million in 2019.

The accumulative new urban population reached 239.14 million in ten years, and this period was also the period of the fastest urbanization.

　　Entering the 2020s, my country's new urban population has been declining year after year. The new urban population in 2020 will be 1.99 million less than that in 2019, and the new urban population in 2021 will be 5.89 million less than that in 2020. For the first time in 28 years, it fell below 10 million, to only 6.46 million, less than one-third of 2019.

　　What are the reasons for the new urban population hitting a 42-year low?

On the one hand, due to the impact of the epidemic last year, some migrant workers from cities returned to their hometowns, and the number of new rural laborers entering cities also decreased.

Up to now, six provinces, Guangxi, Chongqing, Gansu, Qinghai, Jiangxi, and Guizhou, have released their 2022 population data, all of which are central and western provinces.

It is worth noting that in the case of a national population reduction of 850,000 in 2022, these six provinces will all achieve positive growth.

　　Ding Changfa, an associate professor of the Department of Economics of Xiamen University, analyzed Yicai. Last year, affected by the epidemic in the coastal areas, some provinces with population outflows returned. In the future, there will be more development opportunities in the central and western regions. take care of family.

　　On the other hand, from the perspective of the urbanization process itself, with the continuous improvement of the urbanization rate, the new urban population and the rate of urbanization increase are obviously slowing down when the current urban population is close to two-thirds.

　　Peng Peng, executive director of the Guangdong Provincial System Reform Research Association, analyzed China Business News that several first-tier cities and large second-tier cities were significantly affected by the epidemic last year, and many migrant workers returned to their hometowns.

After the optimization of epidemic prevention and control measures, the new urban population may rebound significantly this year and next year.

However, with the continuous improvement of the urbanization rate, urbanization will also shift from the stage of rapid development to the stage of platform development.

　　Niu Fengrui, president of the Research Institute of Small and Medium Cities, analyzed my country Business News that China's urbanization rate will continue to increase in the future.

After the optimization of epidemic prevention and control measures, the economy will pick up this year, and the new urban population will increase significantly. After reaching a certain peak, the annual new urban population will show a downward trend. Of course, this downward trend may not necessarily be a straight line, but may be waves. downlink.

　　How will it affect the property market?

　　With the urbanization rate exceeding 60%, it will enter the stage of secondary urbanization.

On the one hand, the focus of future urbanization will no longer be purely quantitative improvement, but more attention should be paid to the quality of urbanization.

According to Ding Changfa’s analysis, the urbanization rate of permanent residents in coastal areas such as the Yangtze River Delta and the Pearl River Delta is already very high. The next most important thing is to improve the quality of urbanization, and in the future, public services such as housing, education, and medical care must be accelerated. Make up for shortcomings in the industry, increase the supply of public goods, and accelerate the citizenization of migrant workers.

　　On the other hand, in terms of spatial flow, compared with the flow of population from rural to urban areas in the primary urbanization process, secondary urbanization is the flow between cities, from small and medium-sized cities to central cities and metropolises.

　　Niu Fengrui said that from the perspective of the spatial distribution of the population in the country, there are two major directions of population flow in recent years. One is that the population of the central, northwest, and northeast regions gathers to the southeast coast.

The other is that within each province, the population of small and medium-sized cities and rural areas flows to central cities.

　　While the population is gathering in central cities and economically developed areas, some cities with a continuous outflow of population are facing the situation of urban shrinkage.

For example, many prefecture-level cities in the Northeast have relatively early industrialization and urbanization, and the city scale is not small. For example, Hegang and Jixi have 6 municipal districts, Fuxin City also has 5 districts, and Qiqihar has 7 municipal districts. , Shuangyashan, Jiamusi, Mudanjiang and Benxi each have 4 districts.

However, after the depletion of resources and the shrinkage of industries, many cities are also facing the situation of urban shrinkage.

　　In January this year, Yichun City revoked the Shuanghezi Street and Tielin Street in the Friendship District and set them as Shuangzihe Town and Tielin Town.

In December last year, Yichun City abolished the Wumahe, Jinshan, Xiangyang, and Shuguang sub-district offices in Wucui District, and established Cuiluan Town and Wumahe Town.

The Nianzishan District of Qiqihar City, which is also located in Heilongjiang, also carried out the "removal of streets and establishment of towns" last year, and the establishment of Hua'an Township was abolished from Fuqiang Street.

　　As the urbanization rate continues to increase and the growth rate of the urbanization rate slows down, the property market, which has received wide attention, is also facing a series of changes.

Zhang Bo, director of 58 Anju Guest House Property Research Institute, analyzed Yicai. From the perspective of changes in the total population and new urban population, in the next five to ten years, or in terms of long-term development, the overall demand for real estate will not be large. It will not maintain the original high-speed growth, but enter a relatively stable range.

After the real estate industry enters the next cycle, a problem that needs to be faced directly is the reduction of overall demand.

　　At the same time, the property market differentiation in different regions and cities will further intensify.

Zhang Bo said that although from the perspective of population growth, the new urban population has declined, this does not mean that the average inflow of population from each city will decline. Due to the differentiation of cities, from the perspective of economic, social development and attractiveness to the population, There are big differences between cities.

　　Zhang Bo predicts that many new first-tier cities and second-tier cities will still be the main areas for population inflow in the future, and there will still be relatively strong support for these cities and regions; at the same time, first-tier cities will also have more talents with higher education and higher knowledge reserves Inflow, and then support the development of the property market in first-tier cities.