The world's major stock indexes are "booming" during the Chinese New Year holiday. Under this atmosphere, can A-shares usher in a "good start" for the Year of the Rabbit?
The Paper collected the views of 10 brokerages, and most brokerages believe that the unexpected data related to the Spring Festival holiday has released a positive signal of economic recovery. boost market risk appetite.
Adding factors such as the fact that the current overall valuation of A-shares is still not high, domestic capital is expected to relay foreign capital into the market and other factors, A-shares are expected to have a positive start after the Spring Festival.
CICC pointed out that there is still some room for recovery in current economic activities and the slope may still be high.
At the same time, although the market valuation has been restored to a certain extent, the overall valuation is still not high, and the main logic supporting market restoration is still in the process of being realized.
Therefore, superimposed on the outstanding performance of major markets such as overseas and Hong Kong stocks during the Spring Festival, the A-share market is expected to usher in a positive start after the festival.
"As travel during the Spring Festival exceeds expectations, investor sentiment and confidence will accelerate, and the relay effect of domestic and foreign capital in A-shares will become more obvious. With active funds relaying funds to find depressions, a comprehensive recovery of the market is on the way." CITIC Securities further pointed out.
Huaxi Securities analyzed that under the background of increasing risk of global economic recession, the Fed's current round of interest rate hikes has come to an end.
Next, China is expected to become the main growth engine of the global economy, and the attractiveness of RMB assets will continue to increase, which will support the continuation of the A-share index’s volatile upward market.
In terms of allocation, the growth sector has become a promising direction for many institutions.
CITIC Securities recommends that investors can continue to add high-elastic growth depressions after the festival.
The flexibility of A-shares after the festival comes from risk appetite and liquidity recovery, so the growth style is dominant. In the short term, you can focus on varieties with low institutional positions, smooth industry logic, and high performance flexibility, such as medicine and medical care, Xinchuang, etc.
"Under the resonance of the three factors of economic recovery, liquidity improvement, and increased risk appetite, A-shares are expected to launch a spring offensive in February, with a growth style. Investors can choose non-bank financial, computer, electrical equipment and other industries for their layout." National Hai Securities said.
CITIC Securities: After the festival, the relay effect of domestic and foreign capital in A shares is more obvious
Looking forward to the market outlook, as travel during the Spring Festival exceeds expectations, investor sentiment and confidence will accelerate, and the relay effect of domestic and foreign capital in A-shares will become more obvious.
Specifically, first of all, judging from the resumption of travel and market performance during the Spring Festival, investors have doubled their confidence in China's economic return to normal.
Secondly, from the perspective of high elasticity after the festival, the elasticity of A-shares comes from risk appetite and liquidity restoration, and the growth style dominates. The elasticity of Hong Kong stocks comes from the return of allocated funds during the continuous restoration of fundamentals, and the recovery of domestic demand dominates. .
Finally, from the perspective of capital structure and investor behavior characteristics, after allocating foreign capital fully compensates for the outflow in the previous period, the inflow speed is expected to slow down in the future. The increase in domestic active funds is the main source of incremental funds in the market after the festival, and it will be fully restored. Market liquidity continues to spread under the market, and it is expected that growth depressions will become the consensus of funds.
In terms of allocation, it is recommended that investors continue to add high-elastic growth depressions.
Among them, in the short term, you can pay attention to varieties with low institutional positions, smooth industrial logic, and high performance flexibility, such as medicine and medical care, Xinchuang, and digital economy, as well as specialized and special new stocks in the machinery, chemical, and environmental protection sectors.
CICC: A shares are expected to have a positive start
The high-frequency data during the Spring Festival holiday shows that the recovery of domestic demand and consumption is still in progress. With the gradual implementation of the previous policy of stabilizing growth after the holiday, the endogenous financing needs of enterprises have gradually improved. There is still room for the recovery of current economic activities and the slope may still be relatively low. high.
At present, although the market valuation has been restored to a certain extent, the overall valuation is still not high, and the main logic supporting market restoration is still in the process of being realized.
Superimposed on the outstanding performance of major markets such as overseas and Hong Kong stocks during the Spring Festival, the A-share market is expected to usher in a positive start after the festival.
In terms of allocation, as overseas countries enter the window period of weakening inflationary pressures and domestic growth expectations gradually stabilize, some subdivided growth areas that are expected to benefit from the support of industrial policies may continue to perform well. The structural market of medium-term dimensional growth style is worthy of attention.
In terms of short-term allocation, investors are advised to closely follow the marginal changes in policies and pay attention to three main lines: First, areas that are not expected to be high and marginal changes in policies will be greatly affected, such as the real estate chain and consumption.
The second is a manufacturing growth track with high prosperity and policy support, such as technology software and hardware, high-end manufacturing, etc.
The third is medicine, the Internet, etc.
Haitong Securities: After the festival, domestic capital is expected to relay foreign capital into the market
In January of this year, the A-share market ushered in a good start.
Among them, the substantial inflow of foreign capital is the biggest marginal change in the A-share market this year.
Since November 2022, the net inflow of capital from the north has exceeded 200 billion yuan. This is similar to October 2018-February 2019. Domestic policies are active, fundamentals are expected to improve, the renminbi appreciates, and foreign capital inflows accelerate.
The market is in the first wave of rising bull market. Drawing lessons from history, time and space are not over. After the Spring Festival, domestic capital is expected to relay foreign capital into the market.
On the whole, the first wave of bull market rises since the end of October 2022 may not be over yet. Drawing lessons from the first wave of bull market rises in history, although there may also be a short-term retracement during the rise, this does not change the market's upward momentum. trend.
Looking back at the first wave of rises in the early stages of the bull market in history, we can find that the market will show the characteristics of general rises and round rises in various industries during the period, and the final market style is often more balanced.
Looking forward to the market outlook, judging from the three dimensions of policy, technology and market, the digital economy in the growth sector may be more worthy of attention; in addition, new energy and securities companies can be paid attention to.
In the whole year of 2023, we can pay attention to the consumption of fundamental recovery.
GF Securities: The market’s confidence in economic recovery products is expected to be further boosted
During the Spring Festival holiday, the economy at home and abroad is still "ebb and flow".
Overseas "economic slowdown, austerity retreat".
Overseas equity markets generally rose, emerging and developed markets resonated, growth was better than value, and the Hang Seng Index was the top gainer.
Overseas liquidity and credit risk indicators have improved significantly overall, and overseas risk premiums have declined somewhat.
During the Spring Festival in 2023, there will be obvious signs of recovery in major offline consumption such as film and television, tourism, catering, and travel.
Looking forward to the follow-up, the significant recovery of consumption during the Spring Festival has initially released a positive signal of economic recovery in 2023, and the recent upward revision of profit expectations is also evidence, which is expected to further boost market confidence in economic recovery products.
At the current stage of strong expectations, it is recommended to pay attention to film and television theaters, gold jewelry, medical equipment, vaccines with satisfactory valuations in the post-epidemic recovery chain, decoration and building materials, real estate, furniture with low valuations in the real estate chain, and insurance that is still at the bottom of the valuation , securities.
In addition, you can pay attention to general automation, computer, and semiconductor design, which are expected to improve in 2023.
Tianfeng Securities: The restless effect after the Spring Festival can still be realized
From the perspective of the calendar effect, most of the real spring turmoil occurs between the Spring Festival and the two sessions of the year. This stage has the highest index rise probability. The rise probability of CSI 500, CSI 1000, and Wind Quan A exceeds 90%. (past 14 years).
This time before the Spring Festival, it has already risen sharply. Has it overdrawn the room for restlessness after the Spring Festival in advance?
However, before New Year’s Day this year, various sectors of the market have experienced a decline of 1-2 years. The 300 non-financial stock bond yield gap pierced -2X standard deviation at the end of October, showing an extremely pessimistic state, which corresponds to the large market At the bottom, even after the rebound in January, the current stock-bond yield gap has only reached the position of -1X standard deviation.
Therefore, in the current position, the historical restless window from the Spring Festival to the two sessions may still bring good opportunities.
Looking forward to the future market, when the expected recovery represented by consumption is relatively sufficient, and the actual fundamentals after the start of the season have yet to be tested, the market style will most likely respond relatively little to fundamental expectations (the proportion of turnover is low or Just got up), but basically switch to a good growth sector.
Focus on encouraging policies for new energy vehicles (automotive chains), promotion of new nationwide systems (semiconductors, Xinchuang), promotion of low-interest loans for manufacturing transformation and upgrading and equipment renewal (schools, hospitals, industrial Internet), population aging Response policies (medical infrastructure, etc.).
Essence Securities: Starting from February, the main pricing will be "vigorously fight the economy"
From the current point of view, the external and domestic information during the Spring Festival is positive, especially the recovery of the consumer market during the Spring Festival is exciting.
Potential risks lie in the pressure of domestic urban investment, the profit-killing of overseas U.S. stocks, and the intensification of conflicts between Russia and Ukraine. However, the suppression of A shares by these risk factors is relatively limited at present.
Observing from the fund quarterly report in the fourth quarter of 2022, the core logic of institutional allocation since the end of last year is: buying reversal (including the reversal of policies and business climate expectations, and the obvious addition of medicine, travel chain, computer and platform economy in the fourth quarter), From February onwards, the process of "vigorously striving for the economy" will be the main pricing process. The current appeal for "quantity growth" is obviously different from the "pursuit of quality" in the first half of 2019.
Looking ahead, the spring of A-shares in 2023 is the spring of core assets and industry-themed investments, and core asset investments will last longer than in early 2019; growth opportunities are more inclined to industrial-themed investments such as technological growth.
The intertwined rotation of large and small markets is an objective description. In fact, the credit spreads of industrial bonds have recently entered a period of volatility and decline after a rapid upward trend.
Standing in the dimension of a quarter, it will still be biased towards value.
Zhongtai Securities: The first quarter is still a strategic allocation period for bargain hunting
The Spring Festival data has not been repaired beyond expectations, and the market sentiment has been relatively high before the festival. Considering that the market will be in a window of data verification for a period of time in the future, the performance of the big consumer sector may face "challenges".
After the festival, under the influence of factors such as the recovery of the Spring Festival data that did not exceed expectations, economic performance entering a data verification vacuum period, urban investment bond defaults, and real estate stimulus policies that fell short of expectations, more patience may be needed for the market outlook.
The reason is that the current policy strength is still not enough to support a wave of continuous rise in the market. It needs to further increase the policy strength after the centralized release of "tail risks" in the first quarter. Therefore, from the perspective of the whole year, the first quarter is still a strategic allocation period for bargain hunting. .
But from a structural point of view, referring to the "post-holiday reversal" effect shown in the past market and the performance of various sectors before the holiday, it is necessary to pay special attention to the support of consumption data behind the big consumption market after the holiday; on the other hand, benefiting from the post-holiday With changes in market style and policy expectations, the market may be trading around the main line of security. It is recommended to pay attention to the military, technology, computer and other sectors related to supply chain security, and can properly allocate the power sector related to stable growth for defense.
Minsheng Securities: The upward momentum of the market has not yet ended
On the whole, from the past period to the present, the pendulum of overseas and domestic issues has swung to the most favorable position. The tailwind may continue, and the current upward momentum of the market has not yet come to an end.
On the domestic front, it echoes the recent changes in the focus of foreign investment, and the current market is still trading based on their respective expectations.
This is mainly because after the current round of policy adjustments, due to the fact that there are more directions for demand replenishment and more expected directions, the rift among various investors has also increased.
Before the new consensus converges, the rotation speed of the industry may still be at a relatively fast level, and the market will also explore new directions repeatedly.
The macro volatility of the Chinese economy is like a pendulum. From the past period to the present, it is a period of convergence of downward fluctuations, which is most beneficial to the market.
Overseas, a strong US dollar is the basis for suppressing all inflation, but the interest rate, purchasing power and exchange rate of the US dollar will continue to fluctuate.
In the medium and long term, the stickiness of inflation itself will bring market investors to realize the decline in purchasing power in the medium and long term, and drive up interest rates and depreciation of the dollar. This may be a contradiction after the start of the second quarter of 2023.
However, we still need to be wary of the dollar's rebound in the short term.
In terms of allocation, it is recommended that investors focus on domestic demand restoration led by old economic drivers and some new upward price forces, focusing on oil transportation, petroleum and petrochemicals, coal, real estate, non-ferrous metals, banks, and automobiles.
Sealand Securities: A-shares are expected to launch a spring offensive in February
Looking ahead, under the resonance of three factors including economic recovery, improved liquidity, and increased risk appetite, A-shares are expected to launch a spring offensive in February.
Among them, the improvement of both macro and market liquidity is the most obvious. The expectation of wide credit at the beginning of the year is strong, and the Fed’s interest rate hike is coming to an end.
At the same time, the economy has gone through the bottom, and the follow-up recovery is the main theme. During the Spring Festival, travel, tourism, and box office data are good. The upcoming economic peak season is worth looking forward to. The Chinese economy is expected to outshine the major economies.
In addition, boosting the economy is still the primary concern, and the policy maintains an accommodative tone.
Due to domestic policy expectations, etc., market risk appetite is expected to accelerate after the festival.
In terms of allocation, the style tends to grow in February. Investors can pay attention to flexible varieties and make a layout along three clues: one is securities companies, the other is safe assets, and the third is high-end manufacturing.
Among them, non-bank financial, computer, electrical equipment and other industries can be preferred.
Huaxi Securities: Actively layout the A-share market after the Spring Festival
Looking ahead, in the context of the increasing risk of global economic recession, China is expected to become the main growth engine of the global economy, and the attractiveness of RMB assets will continue to increase, which may support the continuation of the A-share index's volatile upward trend.
First of all, the inflection point of global liquidity has gradually become clear, and the Fed's current round of interest rate hikes has come to an end.
Secondly, after the release of the fourth quarter GDP of the United States and the PMI data of the euro zone, the market's confidence in the soft landing of the US and European economies has increased.
Thirdly, the consumption data of the Spring Festival shows that the passenger flow has picked up sharply, and there are bright spots such as theaters, tourism, and tax exemptions, which strengthen the expectation of domestic economic recovery.
At the same time, during the Spring Festival, major overseas equity markets generally strengthened, and Hong Kong stocks also ushered in a good start, which positively boosted the risk appetite of the A-share market.
Therefore, it is recommended to actively deploy the A-share market after the festival.