With the establishment of the first housing loan interest rate policy dynamic adjustment mechanism, the number of cities with lower housing loan interest rates after the Spring Festival has gradually increased, and the support policies on the real estate demand side are accelerating.
On January 29, the reporter learned from the staff of several banks in Zhengzhou that the bank had received interest rate adjustment news on the same day. After the adjustment, the first housing loan interest rate (commercial loan) was reduced from 4.1% to 3.8%, but some banks still Waiting for official execution notice.
Another staff member of a local branch in Jining, a major bank, revealed that the bank may adjust the mortgage interest rate in the near future, and it has to "wait for notice" for details.
Previously, many places in Guangdong announced that starting from January 18, the lower limit of interest rates for commercial personal housing loans for the first home will be phased out.
According to the statistics of the Zhongzhi Research Institute, since the central bank and the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission announced the establishment of the dynamic adjustment mechanism for the first housing loan interest rate policy (hereinafter referred to as the "dynamic mechanism") on January 5, at least 12 cities have adjusted the first housing loan interest rate.
The Shell Research Institute report pointed out that with the establishment of a dynamic adjustment mechanism, the first-home loan interest rate will be linked to housing prices, and future adjustments will be more frequent.
According to Chen Wenjing, director of market research at the China Index Research Institute, in the short term, it is expected that the lower limit of interest rates in more eligible second-tier and third-tier and fourth-tier cities will fall below 4%, and core first-tier and second-tier cities are also expected to reduce the rate increase. The down payment ratio for the first house also has a certain decline expectation.
In addition, the market has high expectations for the reduction of the LPR over the five-year period, but the divergence has intensified in the short term.
First home loan interest rate continues to drop
"The first set is 3.8%, and the second set remains unchanged (4.9%)." On January 29, a personal loan staff member of a branch of Zhongyuan Bank in Zhengzhou told reporters that the bank had just lowered the interest rate on the first set of housing loans on the same day. Before adjustment (4.1%), it has been greatly reduced by 30BP.
On the same day, the staff of Zhengzhou local branches of many banks, including Industrial and Commercial Bank of China and China Merchants Bank, said that they had received the notice of the reduction of the first-home loan interest rate in the morning of the same day, but most banks are still waiting for official documents, and the specific implementation date is uncertain. .
Judging from the content of the preliminary notice, the adjustment range of each bank is basically the same, that is, the interest rate of the first home loan is reduced from 4.1% to 3.8%, and the interest rate of the second home loan remains unchanged at 4.9%.
However, some personal loan managers of major banks said that although the minimum interest rate for first-home loans in their branches has dropped to 3.8%, the specific implementation depends on the cooperation with different real estate projects and intermediaries.
Before Zhengzhou, Tangshan, Taiyuan, Lishui, Jiujiang, and Zhuhai, Jiangmen, Zhaoqing, Zhongshan, Huizhou, Zhanjiang, Shaoguan, Yunfu and other cities in Guangdong Province have successively lowered the first-home loan interest rate.
This change is closely related to the dynamic mechanism announced by the central bank and the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission on January 5, that is, in cities where the sales price of new commercial housing has declined for three consecutive months month-on-month and year-on-year, the local first housing can be maintained, lowered or cancelled. The lower limit of the loan interest rate policy.
According to the notice, starting from the fourth quarter of 2022, the municipal governments can conduct dynamic assessments of changes in the sales prices of new local commercial housing at the end of each quarter, from the end of the previous quarter to the second month of this quarter.
According to the sales price index of new commercial housing in 70 large and medium-sized cities from September to November released by the National Bureau of Statistics, as of the release of the "New Deal", a total of 39 cities are eligible. The aforementioned cities such as Zhengzhou, Tangshan, Taiyuan, and Jiujiang are all in List.
This is the third time since 2022 that the central government has adjusted the lower limit of mortgage interest rates.
In May last year, the central bank and the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission announced that they would lower the interest rate of newly issued first-time commercial personal housing loans, and adjust the lower limit from LPR (loan market quotation rate) not lower than the corresponding period to LPR-20BP; A notice was issued to decide to implement a differentiated housing credit policy in phases. For cities where the sales price of new commercial housing has continued to decline month-on-month and year-on-year from June to August 2022, before the end of 2022, commercial personal housing loans for the first set of housing will be relaxed in phases. For the lower limit of interest rates, there were 23 large and medium-sized cities that were "shortlisted" at that time.
Coupled with the cumulative reduction of 35 basis points in the LPR with a period of more than 5 years, many cities have implemented the minimum mortgage rate (4.1%) for the first home that is 20 basis points lower than the LPR, and some cities that meet the conditions have dropped below 4%. Around 4.9%.
Since September last year, Wuhan, Qingyuan, Jiangmen, Jining and other cities have lowered or canceled the lower limit of the first-home loan interest rate. According to the statistics of the Shell Research Institute, as of November 18, 2022, there have been 18 cities under its monitoring range. The mainstream interest rate has entered the "3 era", including 6 cities in the second-tier cities and 12 cities in the third- and fourth-tier cities.
Taking Jining as an example, the reporter learned after the National Day holiday that some banks, including China Construction Bank, have lowered the local minimum interest rate for first-home loans to 3.95%.
According to the reporter's understanding from the local staff of a major bank in Jining, the news of the adjustment of the housing loan interest rate has also been received recently, but it is still uncertain when the official notification will be made and how much it will be lowered. At present, the first-home loan interest rate is still implemented at 4.1%.
High frequency adjustment or become normal
The central bank stated that the housing loan interest rate policy is linked to the trend of new housing prices and adjusted dynamically, which is conducive to supporting the city government to scientifically evaluate the changes in the sales price of local commercial housing, and to make full use of the policy toolbox to better support rigid housing. Housing demand, forming a long-term mechanism to support the stable and healthy operation of the real estate market.
The reporter consulted the personal loan departments of banks in a number of eligible cities and learned that the pace of adjustment of first-home loan interest rates is different in various places.
The Shell Research Institute report pointed out that with the establishment of a dynamic adjustment mechanism, the first-home loan interest rate will be linked to housing prices, and future adjustments will be more frequent.
Taking the announcement issued by the People's Government of Jiujiang City, Jiangxi Province on January 18 as an example, the announcement announced that the lower limit of the commercial personal housing loan interest rate for the first house in Jiujiang City will be adjusted to LPR-30BP, which will be implemented from the next day of the announcement.
In the follow-up evaluation period (the evaluation period from the last month of the last quarter to the second month of this quarter) there is a rise in the sales price of new commercial housing for three consecutive months month-on-month and year-on-year. The lower limit of interest rates for commercial personal housing loans for the first set of housing.
On January 27, the Guangdong mobile government service platform "Yue Shengshi" disclosed the adjustment of the first-home loan interest rates in Zhaoqing, Shaoguan, Zhanjiang, Huizhou, Yunfu, and Jiangmen. The six cities will gradually cancel the lower limit of the first-home loan interest rate from January 18. , Duocheng emphasized the possibility of interest rate adjustments that may be brought about by house price changes during the subsequent evaluation period.
Among them, Jiangmen City also emphasized that after the lower limit of interest rates is abolished, banks can independently determine the first-home loan interest rate. From October 1 to December 31 last year, the first-home loan interest rate of major commercial banks in the city has dropped to a historical low of 3.9%.
According to the data of the Shell Research Institute, in January this year, the mainstream interest rate of the first house in 100 cities across the country averaged 4.1%, an increase of 1BP from the previous month, and the average rate of the second house was 4.91%.
Among them, the first-tier cities have the highest mortgage interest rates, with an average of 4.6% for the first home and 5.13% for the second-tier cities; the average first-home loan interest rate is 4.07% in the second-tier cities, and 4.08% in the third- and fourth-tier cities. The latter has the largest year-on-year decrease.
Chen Wenjing, director of market research at the Index Division of the China Index Research Institute, told reporters that in the short term, it is expected that the lower limit of interest rates in more eligible second-tier and third-tier and fourth-tier cities will fall below 4%, and core first-tier and second-tier cities are also expected to reduce the interest rate increase. The latter’s down payment ratio for the first house also has a certain decline expectation.
Incremental adjustment expectations diverge
In the view of many institutions, the dynamic mechanism is actually the normalization of the phased adjustment of the differentiated housing credit policy in September.
Jiang Yuhui, chief analyst of the real estate industry at Cinda Securities, believes that this policy signal is expected to reverse the expectation of house price declines in terms of the sentiment of home buyers. The continuous reduction of mortgage interest rates and the reduction of home purchase costs are expected to boost home buyers' willingness to buy houses and boost the demand side.
Judging from the sluggish mid-to-long-term loan data for residents in 2022, as well as the high deposits of residents, the high willingness to save, and the tendency to repay loans in advance, residents' willingness to buy houses continued to be at a low ebb last year.
In addition, according to the results of the questionnaire released by the central bank, residents’ housing price expectations in the fourth quarter of last year were still relatively pessimistic. Xie Yunliang, chief macro analyst at Cinda Securities, believes that residents’ expectations are weakening and the pressure of demand contraction is still relatively large.
According to data from the Crane Real Estate Research Center, during the first small Spring Festival holiday after the epidemic was released, although the third and fourth tiers returned to their hometowns to buy properties, the overall decline in transactions was difficult to reverse. During the period, transactions fell by 14% year-on-year. Compared with 2019, the decline still reached more than 30%.
In addition, according to the survey data of analysts from various regions of the Middle Finger Research Institute, the average number of visits to projects in Beijing, Hangzhou, Chengdu, Xi’an and other key cities has increased compared with last year’s Spring Festival, but most buyers stay on the sidelines, and the actual transactions are generally common. Relatively small.
Next, in addition to continuing to reduce the cost of housing purchases for residents by implementing policies in various cities, the market's expectations for incremental policies on the real estate demand side are still heating up.
Xie Yunliang believes that in the future, the space for increasing relevant policies can focus on possible interest rate cuts, LPR reductions, further relaxation of purchase and loan restrictions in major cities, etc.
On January 20, the latest LPR quotation released by the National Interbank Funding Center showed that the price of 1-year products was 3.65%, and the price of products with a maturity of more than 5 years was 4.30%, which remained unchanged for 5 consecutive months.
Wang Qing, the chief macro analyst of Dongfang Jincheng, believes that the reason why the quotation of LPR with a period of more than 5 years has not been lowered in January may be that there may be reasons behind the recent rapid increase in the marginal cost of funds of banks, and the implementation of 16 policies to support real estate. Support the property market to stabilize and recover as soon as possible. In the short term, there is still room for 5-year LPR quotations to be lowered.
However, there are also opinions that, taking into account factors such as the recovery of credit demand and the increasing pressure on bank interest margins, the downward space and motivation of LPR may be insufficient, and interest rate cuts are needed to help.
Mingming, the chief economist of CITIC Securities, also pointed out that after the establishment of the dynamic adjustment system of mortgage interest rates, the credit cost of residential housing purchases has been substantially reduced, and the necessity of short-term LPR cuts has been reduced. There is room for downward adjustment of LPR under pressure.