Reporter Meng Ke trainee reporter Mao Yirong
"Through the cold winter, the willows are dark and the flowers are bright", this is the warmest keyword that the reporter of "Securities Daily" heard when interviewing ten chief experts.
The interviewed experts generally believe that China's economy has entered a restorative growth cycle, which is expected to drive up the risk appetite of domestic funds. The most important opportunity in the Year of the Rabbit lies in equity assets.
In addition, commodities may have structural differentiation, and the value of gold asset allocation with risk aversion attributes has emerged.
A-share equity assets are more cost-effective
According to the judgments of all parties, the fundamentals of China's long-term economic growth have not changed, and the positive factors driving the overall economic improvement have increased significantly.
Luo Zhiheng, chief economist of Yuekai Securities, said that my country's economy is gradually recovering, market risk appetite is rising, domestic policies are relatively loose, and external factors such as the Fed's interest rate hike are gradually lifted. year.
From the perspective of asset allocation, the risk of overseas assets has risen, so it is advisable to allocate more RMB assets and allocate a higher proportion of equity assets.
"The domestic macro environment is 'good for stocks and bad for bonds', and the annual trend of A-shares may show an 'N-type', and it has the characteristics of 'value first and then growth'." Zhao Wei, chief economist of Sinolink Securities, said, "Overseas capital markets On the one hand, the current U.S. economy has entered a recession cycle, and the decline in productivity and reduction in overseas income may have an impact on the profitability of U.S. stocks. Therefore, capital markets such as Europe and the United States will still face the risk of continued adjustment in 2023."
Dong Zhongyun, chief economist of AVIC Securities, said that in 2023, my country's economy will move towards recovery, and the global attractiveness of domestic assets will increase.
In an environment where liquidity remains abundant and credit expansion is gradually restored, the domestic stock market is likely to perform better than the bond market.
The chief economist of CITIC Securities clearly judged that in the first half of the year, my country's economy was in a stage of rapid recovery. The improvement of profit expectations combined with changes in overseas liquidity drove the discount rate down. A shares and Hong Kong stocks are expected to resume growth significantly.
In the context of China's obvious advantages in assets, what changes will occur in the logic of asset allocation in 2023?
"With the policy's efforts to expand domestic demand and stabilize confidence, China's economy recovers and market confidence is restored, the A-share market will have a stronger performance in the Year of the Rabbit." Deng Haiqing, chief economist of AVIC Fund, said that on the one hand, in 2023 China's economic growth will pick up, and the increase in GDP and corporate profits will bring opportunities for cyclical stocks; "The double main line is worth layout.
Liu Feng, chief economist of China Galaxy Securities, believes that the most important opportunity this year lies in equity assets, and suggests increasing the allocation of equity assets.
In terms of industry direction, it is recommended to focus on consumption, advanced manufacturing, and "double carbon" fields.
Yao Zhipeng, Chief Investment Officer of Harvest Fund Stock Investment Research, holds a similar view.
He believes that the price/performance ratio of A-share equity assets has continued to stand out.
From the perspective of specific industries, Yao Zhipeng said, first, the overall prosperity is still at a high level, the valuation is fully digested, and the industrial logic is still in the new energy vehicle industry chain; the second is the big security theme under the new growth paradigm of development and safety. , including the long-term low valuation and the direction of computers and semiconductors where the industry is expected to reverse its difficulties; the third is the real estate industry chain related to optional consumption and cycle-related real estate policy optimization and demand improvement.
The report of the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China proposed to "organically combine the implementation of the strategy of expanding domestic demand with the deepening of supply-side structural reforms."
At the same time, recently, a series of documents to expand domestic demand have been intensively issued at the national level.
Li Zhan, chief economist of the Research Department of China Merchants Fund, said that expanding domestic demand will be the main driving force for steady growth in 2023.
First, investment in the manufacturing industry is expected to increase significantly; second, the intensity of infrastructure investment policies will not decrease; third, the recovery of the economy and employment will drive the recovery of confidence in the resident sector, and the superimposed consumption scene will recover, and the consumer end is expected to usher in a significant recovery.
"The domestic environment in the first half of 2023 is that the economy is improving, the policy of stabilizing growth continues to make efforts, and the liquidity remains reasonable and sufficient. The A-share market is expected to perform a volatile upward market based on valuation restoration." Li Zhan believes.
Yang Delong, chief economist of Qianhai Kaiyuan Fund, said that after the economy improves and investor confidence picks up, a large number of residents' savings are expected to enter the market through buying funds or opening accounts, which will become a steady stream of incremental funds in the A-share market.
Gold, Bond Market or Deposit Trading Opportunities
"Overseas interest rate hikes combined with more pessimistic economic expectations in many countries will cause a large drop in global commodity prices in 2022. In 2023, the domestic macro economy will recover, and the demand for commodities is expected to exceed expectations." Chief Economist and Research Institute of Chuancai Securities Chief Chen Li said.
In terms of industry direction, Chen Li said that, first of all, there is still the possibility of changes in the energy sector. Many factors such as low capital expenditure of global fossil energy, European energy dependence on Russia and structural imbalance, and geopolitics will continue to promote fluctuations in oil, coal and natural gas prices. ;Secondly, in terms of precious metals and base metals, the current inventory level is relatively low. Under the influence of slowing interest rate hikes, the pressure has been released, and there is still an upward momentum; thirdly, ferrous metals and chemical products need to focus on the transmission of terminal demand .
Since the beginning of 2023, the international gold price has been particularly eye-catching. As of 16:10 on January 29, Beijing time, the COMEX gold price was reported at US$1,927.60 per ounce, and the price of gold reached a high level in nearly nine months.
Zhao Wei believes that the price of gold is highly linked to the real yield of U.S. debt.
The emergence of the "cumulative effect" of liquidity crunch may expose risks such as European bonds and US high-yield bonds one after another, and the risk aversion drive is conducive to the staged performance of gold.
"Gold and other precious metals are stabilizers. During the inflation cycle stage in Europe and the United States, it is recommended to properly allocate gold." Liu Feng said.
In terms of the bond market, Mingming believes that the seesaw effect of stocks and bonds will still be more obvious.
In the first half of this year, long-term interest rates may experience upward pressure. In the second half of the year, the domestic and foreign economic resonance superimposed the easing window, and there are trading opportunities for bonds.
In Zhao Wei's view, a periodic correction of bond yields may be inevitable.
Under the influence and resonance of multiple factors such as fundamentals, the 2023 10-year treasury bond yield is 3.3% or not the end point.
Deng Haiqing believes that as China's economy enters the recovery channel, the monetary policy in 2023 will be based on structural policies, widening credit and stabilizing prices at the same time.
Long-term bonds are affected by economic recovery and long-term monetary policy tightening expectations. The general trend of shocks and upward movement is relatively certain. In 2023, the yield of 10-year government bonds is likely to return to the normal range of 2.9% to 3.20%, and the high point may exceed 3.30%. .