According to RBC, the results of the study are presented in the article "The Economics of the Exporter of Raw Materials in the "New Reality": Quantitative and Structural Parameters", published in the December issue of the scientific journal "Economic Issues".
Economists have identified three development options - neutral, pessimistic and optimistic.
According to the optimistic scenario, analogues of retired imports will be created without difficulty, and there will be no productivity loss when import-substituting goods are used in production.
In this case, GDP initially declines, but then slowly recovers over 15 years and exceeds the base level by then.
The neutral scenario assumes incomplete import substitution.
In this case, GDP initially declines, but then recovers only partially.
In the pessimistic scenario, the replacement rate remains low.
As a result, GDP is not recovering, but on the contrary, it is declining.
Earlier, Deputy Energy Minister Eduard Sheremetsev said that the department plans to completely replace the foreign software of the ministry with domestic software in 2023.
The same goes for technology.