Original title: The annual salary is 200,000, and the fund lost 65,000!

Jimin laughed at himself: If you don't manage money, money will never leave you!

Why not vote?

the truth is...

  As the year was approaching, Ms. Shi, a financial white-collar worker, opened the fund account and took a tentative look: As of December 24, the overall loss this year was 15%, and the floating loss amounted to about 65,000 yuan.

The account information she showed to Chinese reporters of the brokerage company showed that all five non-money funds in the account went green, and the largest drop in net value was close to 30%.

"My annual salary is only 200,000 yuan, and the fund has lost one-third of it. It's because you don't manage money, and your money can't leave you!" Ms. Shi said to the reporter in a self-deprecating tone.

  This is not an isolated case, but what is more common is her "All In" investment method.

She bought these funds at one time before this year when the "Ten Billion Explosive Funds" were in vogue.

The reporter asked her why she didn't try fixed investment. She bluntly said that the rate of return of fund fixed investment is relatively low, which does not meet her high requirements for fund rate of return.

  However, the deduction of fixed investment based on real data shows that the return rate of the fund can be close to 140% within three years, but why are few Christians able to get positive feedback from it?

"Going to extremes" is the main reason.

Due to the lack of comprehensive understanding of fixed investment in funds, the holding time of basic investors is too short, and they leave the market too early and miss the market; in addition, their understanding of fixed investment is relatively rigid, and they think that as long as they buy funds and hold them for a long time, they can rest easy.

28-month fixed investment income can exceed 100%

  "I have never tried fixed investment." Ms. Shi said bluntly to the reporter: "I think I have a certain understanding of funds, and I continue to pay attention to the real-time changes in the financial market. I always feel that I can cover positions in time when the market is low; The income requirements are relatively high, and I have read some articles and data in the past, and I have the impression that the fixed investment rate of funds is relatively low.”

  What is the real situation of fixed investment rate of return?

For this reason, China Asset Management recently took the CSI All-A Index as the measurement target, and presented the ten-year income from December 1, 2012, with a monthly fixed investment of 1,000 yuan until December 1, 2022:

  Specifically, in the first 19 months since the start of fixed investment, the rate of return of fixed investment has almost hovered below 10%, and even lost money for a lot of time.

For example, on July 3, 2013, which is the eighth month since the regular investment started, the regular investment yield was -4.90%; by May 5, 2014, which was the 17th month since the regular investment started, the regular investment yield was -0.60 %; by the 18th month (June 3, 2014) when the fixed investment started, the fixed investment rate of return was -0.22%.

  However, starting from the 20th month of regular investment, the income has risen in a straight line; by the 27th month (March 3, 2015) the income has been close to 50%; the 28th month (May 4, 2015) income has exceeded 100%; the 31st month (June 3, 2015) return of regular investment is close to 140%.

This means that after getting through the initial stage of fluctuations and even floating losses, it is possible to usher in the opportunity to earn excess returns.

  "The long-term fixed investment usually refers to 3 to 5 years or more, and the funds are spread out to buy at different times. Although there may be fluctuations in the short term, in the long run, what you get is the average cost of a period of time." Jinhexin Quantitative Discovery Fund Manager Li Tianfeng told reporters that regular investment is a more comfortable way for Christians. It not only dilutes the cost, avoids the risk of being locked in that All In may face, but also does not need to follow the market every day. On the watch.

Can't help but miss the second half of the "smile curve"

  Since fixed investment is an effective investment method, why do Christians seldom get positive feedback from fixed investment?

The answer lies in "can't control it".

  Yinhua Fund said that short-term holding is one of the important factors for Christians to lose money, and leaving the market too early will often cause investors to miss the continuous development of the market.

Yinhua Fund quoted wind data to calculate, taking the partial stock mixed fund index from January 1, 2004 to December 31, 2021 as an example, by buying at any time and holding it for any number of days to obtain the positive return probability Look, it takes 598 days for a positive return probability of 70%; while holding for more than three years, the positive return probability is 80%; holding for nearly five years, the positive return probability is as high as 90%.

  In addition, according to the data obtained by the reporter from Chuangjin Hexin Fund, as of December 15, 2022, the cumulative rate of return of new customers of Chuangjin Hexin Fund in 2022 is nearly 5 percentage points higher than that of non-fixed investment customers.

  Chuangjin Hexin Fund believes that in an environment with large market fluctuations, fixed investment is a more effective fund investment strategy.

The reason why Jimin lacks positive feedback on fixed investment is also because there is a characteristic of chasing ups and downs in choosing the time of fixed investment.

"According to historical data, there are often more fixed investment investors when the market is good, but usually in a volatile market, which is a more suitable time for investors to make fixed investment, investors' enthusiasm for investment decreases." Ms. Shi said with emotion: "This year's stock and debt double kill, lack of confidence in fund investment, and I don't want to increase investment for the time being. The overall market has led to a decrease in attention to fund investment, so I didn't invest in selecting fund managers."

  China Asset Management said that if the market shows a trend of first falling and then rising for a period of time, it is often difficult for fixed investment to obtain good returns at the beginning. The segment itself is a process of sinking and accumulating; as the market enters the rising stage, fixed investment also begins to accumulate and accumulate, entering the second half of the "smiling curve".

After a lot of tossing, I discovered that "the road is as simple as possible"

  After understanding the real situation of fund fixed investment, how should Christians make fixed investment?

  To this end, Xu Liming, the fund manager of China Asset Management, took the past ten years (January 2013 to December 2022) as a time period to conduct investment calculations on the following four fixed investment methods: First, make monthly fixed investment at any time (from 2013 Beginning in January 2019, a fixed investment of 1,000 yuan will be invested on the 10th of each month to invest in partial stock hybrid fund index); second, moderate timing, investing when it falls; third, active timing, as long as the market rises, it will not invest, and only when it falls will it invest : The fourth is the timing of the trend. Only invest when the market rises, and don’t invest when the market falls, similar to "chasing the rise and killing the fall".

  Xu Liming found that there is no significant difference in the above four methods from the perspective of yield, but from the perspective of operational feasibility, option one is the best, and there is not much loss in yield and volatility.

Other options have operational difficulties. For example, option two, the difficulty lies in judging when the market is high and when it is low; option three, compared to avoiding a market crash, missing a market rise will be a greater loss.

  That is to say, the effective implementation of the last three fixed investment behaviors requires Christians to have considerable timing and market prediction capabilities.

But in reality, most Christians do not have professional investment capabilities and information advantages.

On the contrary, the overconfidence of most Christians often brings losses, and it is only after a lot of tossing that they discover that "the road is simple."

  For example, Li Tianfeng said about trend trading. Fundamentalists in this type of operation often do not buy when the fund falls, but only after a more certain upward trend emerges. However, how long the trend can last after the emergence depends on the is uncertain.

When he finds that the trend has lasted for a period of time and is about to turn around again, he will sell it quickly, and may make a little money, which is equivalent to a fish that can eat a part in the middle.

If the body of the fish is very long, you can eat more fish meat; if it is a small fish, you may not even eat the bones in the end.

  Why can the simplest fixed investment method make money?

In Xu Liming's view, this is essentially the result of a quantitative change to a qualitative change.

"In the early stage of fixed investment, the accumulation of assets is mainly determined by the investment principal, which has little to do with the speed of asset appreciation. Because there are very few stock assets in the initial stage, regardless of the rate of return, the overall impact on assets is relatively small. In contrast, every The dilution effect of a new fixed investment on the investment income (loss) of stock assets is obvious. However, in the middle and late stages of fixed investment, after the proportion of stock assets has increased in absolute terms, the overall accumulation of assets has become more and more from assets. rate of return.”

Before deciding to vote, ask yourself two questions

  Although fixed fund investment is effective, it does not mean that as long as you buy any fund and hold it for a long time, you can sit back and relax.

  Whether it is a fund company or a third-party wealth management institution, the data they deduce the fixed investment of the fund are all "big data", which is based on the statistical results obtained from a large sample, and there are two imperceptible assumptions behind it:

  First, although the macroeconomy fluctuates in the short term, it is still growing upwards in the long term.

Therefore, the long-term income of the fund can obtain a return level not lower than the macroeconomic beta (equivalent to the growth rate of national income + CPI growth rate), which is determined by the economic trend, and whether the basic people hold the fund and hold it for a long time Or short, it doesn't matter.

  The second is that the beta return provided by fund investment is in the "average sense" and erases individual differences.

On the one hand, among the tens of thousands of funds, not all funds follow the law of mean value, and there is no correlation or causality between the long-term net worth curve of some funds and macroeconomic growth; on the other hand, it is specific to every Christian , the distribution of beta returns among them is actually very uneven.

For example, Ms. Smith lost 15% this year, but some people still make money this year, and some people lose 30% or even higher.

  Therefore, the analysis of fixed investment data and income deduction of the above-mentioned fund companies, except for the marketing color, only brings directional advice to Christians, and Christians cannot be understood as "simple buying and long-term holding".

Jimin should ask himself two questions before deciding to invest: First, do the investment assets of the fund I hold represent the growth trend of China's economy?

If not, the time factor is likely to be invalid in the fixed investment; second, can I bear the high volatility brought about by these flexible assets in the fixed investment process?

If not, then consider reducing the purchase ratio of industry-themed funds, and appropriately increase broad-based index products or FOF and other products that have undergone secondary risk diversification.

(Brokers China)