The Bank of Spain warns that gas consumption could increase by 25% in a particularly cold winter

The Bank of Spain has published a preview of its next Quarterly Report on the Spanish Economy in which it warns that if the country faces a winter as cold as that of 2004-2005, gas consumption could increase by

.

However, if the temperatures are closer to those of last winter and the energy consumption patterns derived from the crisis and the saving measures are maintained, there would be a year-on-year reduction of 10%.

The Banco de España estimate is made with respect to the two most particular records in recent years between December 1 and February 28.

The period of 2021-2022, with maximum temperatures of 1.6º above the historical average -14.9 degrees-, and that of 2004-2005, with a daily maximum 1.3º below this figure.

The document also provides data on the evident relationship between maximum temperature and gas consumption, which is "very negative for low temperatures", but at the same time "not significant for high temperatures".

With a decrease of one degree, the consumption of households and SMEs "increases

when the maximum daily temperature is already below 20 degrees."

However, it "barely changes" above that threshold.

In any case, everything indicates that the coming months

.

This is clear, for example, from Aemet's seasonal prediction, which details that there is "a greater probability that the temperature is in the upper tercile in mainland Spain and the Balearic Islands".

Also according to the latest data published by Enagás, it seems that Spain is closer to facing

.

In November, the demand of the conventional market -that is, that destined for the consumption of homes, businesses and industries, without electricity generation- fell by 32% compared to the same month of 2021 and the temperature was 3.1 degrees higher, according to you can read in the company's Statistical Bulletin.

In spite of everything, the Bank warns that "even taking into account these recent changes in consumption patterns", if next winter were as cold as that of 2004, "natural gas consumption in our country could increase by around 25% compared to last year.

less gas

These recent changes in consumption patterns have meant that since August the national demand for natural gas has

.

As revealed by the Minister of Ecological Transition, Teresa Ribera, in the balance of the first months of the +SE plan, if we add to this the energy balance with France and Portugal -exports have increased enormously- the percentage rises to 21% .

In addition, Ribera explained that the electricity demand has also been reduced by 7%.

The Bank's analysis also explains how temperature influences electricity consumption, which in this case is a U-shaped relationship: both cold and heat cause it to increase, since electric heating or air conditioning come into play. .

According to the criteria of The Trust Project

Know more

• Gas