Medium and long-term loans to enterprises grow steadily
According to financial statistics released by the People's Bank of China on December 12, at the end of November, the balance of broad money (M_2) was 264.7 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.4%, and the growth rate was 0.6 and 3.9 percentage points higher than the end of the previous month and the same period of the previous year. .
According to preliminary statistics, the social financing scale increased by 1.99 trillion yuan in November, 610.9 billion yuan less than the same period last year.
In November, RMB loans increased by 1.21 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 59.6 billion yuan.
Credit demand picks up in the real sector
Regarding the maintenance of M_2 growth rate at a high level, Wen Bin, Chief Economist of China Minsheng Bank, said that on the one hand, under the continuous strengthening of growth stabilization policies, credit supply and non-standard financing will maintain a certain level of prosperity, which will help drive M_2 growth rate; On the one hand, under the tone of stable growth, the central bank maintains reasonable and sufficient liquidity through various monetary policy tools. Fiscal deposits decreased by 368.1 billion yuan in November, a decrease of 1.51 trillion yuan month-on-month, helping to maintain the growth rate of M_2 at a high level.
"Supported by the monetary and credit-side policies, the credit and social finance data in November both improved month-on-month, and the demand for credit in the real sector has picked up, but it is still at a relatively low level in history." JLL Greater China Chief Economics Pang Ming, an economist and director of the research department, believes that the epidemic has temporarily disrupted economic recovery and the improvement of the credit structure, and the endogenous credit demand in the real sector still needs policy protection.
In the view of Dong Ximiao, chief researcher of China Merchants Union Finance, M_2 maintained a relatively rapid growth rate in November, indicating that market liquidity is in a reasonable and sufficient state, and monetary policy is relatively strong in supporting the real economy.
The growth rate of narrow money (M_1) has slowed down month-on-month, reflecting that business operations and investment activities are still suppressed due to the impact of the epidemic.
At the same time, in November, my country's social financing scale and RMB loans both showed a month-on-month increase and a year-on-year decrease, indicating that with the gradual implementation of the previous policy of stabilizing growth, market confidence and expectations have recovered, but the recovery trend is not stable. Effective financing needs Still not enough.
Corporate loans are still an important support for new credit.
From the perspective of credit structure, the growth of corporate loans is still good, while the growth of household loans is slow.
In November, loans to enterprises (institutions) increased by 883.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 315.8 billion yuan.
Among them, medium and long-term loans increased by 736.7 billion yuan, an increase of 432 billion yuan year-on-year.
In particular, medium and long-term loans to enterprises (institutions) have increased year-on-year for four consecutive months.
"Development-oriented and policy-based financial instruments and special re-loans for equipment renewal and transformation have been launched, and financial institutions have increased their support for infrastructure, major projects and other fields, and continued to promote the steady growth of medium and long-term loans for enterprises. This shows that enterprises have confidence in the future It is gradually recovering, and expectations are relatively positive." Dong Ximiao said.
Increased medium and long-term loans
"Commercial banks continue to expand medium- and long-term loan grants under the wide credit policy combination. The new policy of stabilizing real estate has increased credit to help the real estate market's expectations, confidence, and sentiment to build a bottom. Superimposed on the tight issuance rhythm and strong issuance of special bonds since the end of October have given infrastructure and The support of major project financing is the main reason for the growth of medium and long-term loans for enterprises." Pang Ming believes that household loans, especially short-term loans, are relatively weak due to the impact of macro recovery and the recovery effect of social effective demand.
In fact, household loans have improved significantly month-on-month, but medium- and long-term loans to households still contracted relatively sharply year-on-year.
In November, household loans increased by 262.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 471.0 billion yuan, and a month-on-month increase of 280.7 billion yuan.
Among them, short-term loans increased by 52.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 99.2 billion yuan, and a month-on-month increase of 103.7 billion yuan.
"In November, the scope of the epidemic's impact was further expanded, and both production and consumption were greatly disturbed, which affected the endogenous financing needs of entities. In November, the PMI business activity index of the service industry fell further, falling 1.9 percentage points month-on-month to 45.1%, driving residents' short-term loans year-on-year Continue to decline." Wen Bin said, but the optimization of the epidemic prevention and control policies has accelerated, and the short-term loans of residents have improved month-on-month.
Residential medium and long-term loans increased by 210.3 billion yuan, a significant improvement from the previous month.
Real estate sales did not see a significant improvement in November, and the effectiveness of a series of measures to stabilize real estate will be concentrated on the supply side. Home buyers are still in a wait-and-see mood. In November, the year-on-year decrease in medium and long-term loans to residents is still large, but the real estate stabilization policy is in essence Under the change, the policy effect has appeared to some extent.
In terms of social financing, the issuance of government bonds is still an important supporting factor, but due to the lack of conditions to drive down the bond market interest rate in the near future, it has dragged down the net financing scale of corporate bonds.
"The bond market adjusted sharply in the middle and late November, and the rapid rise in benchmark interest rates led to an increase in corporate financing costs. Many corporate bond issuances were cancelled, and corporate direct financing fell sharply by 341 billion yuan year-on-year." Wen Bin said.
Monetary policy will be more precise and powerful
Looking ahead, Wen Bin said that from the financial data, it can be seen that repeated epidemics and unstable expectations have caused continuous disturbance to wide credit, and it is necessary to continue to strengthen the policy of stabilizing growth to consolidate the foundation of economic stabilization and growth, and to drive the steady expansion of credit and social financing. .
Pang Ming believes that we should attach great importance to the external impact of frequent outbreaks of the epidemic on the pace of economic recovery and the continued efforts of policies. It is expected that the next stage of economic work will address the contradiction of weak effective social demand, with the basic role of consumption and the key to investment The role is to support, stabilize the confidence of market entities and the expectations of the resident sector, focusing on expanding domestic demand, expanding effective investment, promoting consumption recovery, and enhancing the endogenous momentum of the economy.
"In the next step, in order to effectively stimulate the demand for loans in the real economy and stabilize the operation of the macro economy, policy efforts may be made in several aspects." Wang Qing, chief macro analyst at Oriental Jincheng, believes that the first is to promote the effective transmission of wide money to wide credit , the focus is to guide the loan market to lower the quoted interest rate and reduce the financing costs of enterprises and residents.
The second is to urge policy-oriented development banks to implement an additional 800 billion yuan in credit scale as soon as possible, guide banks to increase loans for infrastructure projects, and support the acceleration of infrastructure investment.
The third is to fully tap the potential of various structural monetary policy tools, speed up the issuance of relevant loans, and promote the growth of total credit.
Fourth, regulators will step up assessment of banks and guide financial institutions to increase lending to the real economy.
How accurate and powerful is a prudent monetary policy?
Experts believe that the follow-up monetary policy will continue to take into account the short-term and long-term and handle the relationship between stable growth and structural adjustment, take into account economic growth and price stability, and properly handle the relationship between keeping the economy operating within a reasonable range and preventing inflation from heating up. Balance and properly handle the relationship between investment, consumption, employment, exchange rate and other macro-policy trade-off dimensions.
Pang Ming said that it is expected that relevant departments will continue to increase the implementation of prudent monetary policies, comprehensively use various monetary policy tools, optimize policy mix, maintain a reasonable and sufficient state of liquidity, keep market interest rates running smoothly, further guide policy interest rates downward, and strive to pass Reduce the capital cost of financial institutions, reduce the inclusive small and micro loans in the existing loans and the relatively high mortgage loan interest rate, drive the comprehensive financing cost of the real economy, the corporate loan interest rate, and the cost of personal consumption credit to decline steadily, and maintain the money supply and The scale of social financing will increase reasonably, and strive to achieve better results in economic operation.
Experts suggest that, first of all, give full play to the dual functions of the aggregate and structure of monetary policy tools, and provide more powerful support for the real economy, market entities, and household sectors; secondly, future credit support should continue to focus on aggregate and structural issues, and emphasize The support for the real economy, especially key areas, weak links and severely affected industries, must be practical. Financial services must be inclusive, accessible, and market-oriented, and work together to support the stable and healthy development of the real estate market; finally, maintain reasonable liquidity Sufficiency is still the basic prerequisite for maintaining wide credit, supporting economic recovery, and successfully completing the task of stabilizing growth. It is also conducive to providing guarantees for financial institutions to continue to increase their support and care for the real economy.
Yao Jin