Securities Times reporter Wu Jiaming

　　"In the past one or two months, many owners have come to list their properties. A small number of them want to test the market conditions, but most of them are sincerely selling." Manager Zhang, who has been engaged in the real estate agency industry for nearly 10 years in Shenzhen Futian Bagualing, told Reporter, "In the community above our store, there are now more than 20 second-hand houses for sale, and in the past, there were only about 10 under normal circumstances."

　　Recently, the number of second-hand houses for sale in many cities, including Shenzhen, has increased significantly. Why is this happening?

What impact will it bring to the property market?

　　There are many reasons to sell a home

　　According to the latest data released by the Shenzhen Real Estate Intermediary Association, as of November 14, there were 42,049 effective second-hand houses for sale in Shenzhen, an increase of 948 from last week, and the number of second-hand houses for sale continued to increase.

　　"Shenzhen now has stricter censorship on housing listings on intermediary platforms, and those with incomplete information cannot be displayed to the public, so not all housing listings you see on mobile platforms are selling second-hand listings." Manager Zhang said, "From the past In terms of the chemical cycle, there are a lot of listings, so there must be some pressure."

　　So, what kind of concept is the number of second-hand houses for sale that exceeds 40,000?

The reporter found that in the past six months, the monthly second-hand housing transfers in Shenzhen were 2,318, 2,241, 2,036, 2,000, 1,730, and 1,733 sets.

According to the data of Leyoujia Research Center, taking the community as the unit and measuring by the listing rate (listing rate = number of listings/total number of households), a listing rate of 1% to 5% is a normal circulation state, while a listing rate of more than 5% %, indicating that there are a large number of listings in the community, fierce competition among sellers, and even a slow sale.

Among the second-hand residential communities listed on Leyoujia.com, the average listing rate is 3%, which is still in a reasonable state overall.

The area with the highest proportion of slow sales in the community is Longgang District, followed by Nanshan District.

　　Shenzhen Zhongyuan Research Center believes that the number of second-hand housing listings continues to hit new highs, the listing prices have fallen, the number of visitors is still at a low level, and the room for bargaining has risen to a high level. Various indicators indicate that the market is still adjusting.

On the other hand, the "involution" of the new housing market is serious, discounts are becoming more and more common, and the prices of new properties entering the market have also continued to hit new lows in the area in recent years, which will further suppress the second-hand housing market.

　　The reporter interviewed nearly 10 second-hand house owners who came to put up their listings in several areas of Luohu and Futian. The answers they received mainly included that some owners had been hesitant to sell their vacant houses before why they chose to put their listings at this time. , but considering the current property market regulation and market performance, I feel that I don’t want to "wait" anymore; or due to my own economic factors, cashing out is an option now; The cycle is lengthened, so prepare in advance; some investors with multiple suites also said that the current leasing market is also under great pressure, the vacancy period is getting longer, and the cost of holding is getting higher and higher, so they choose to sell.

　　Both sides of supply and demand need two-way boost

　　In addition to Shenzhen, public market data show that the sales volume of second-hand housing in Beijing, Hangzhou and other cities has also risen to a high level.

Li Yujia, chief researcher of the Housing Policy Research Center of the Guangdong Provincial Urban Planning Institute, said that the increase in the number of second-hand houses listed for sale is mainly because when the expectation of rising house prices weakens, the cost of holding houses will become higher for many investors, so they will choose to sell. .

There were too many investors when the property market rose last round, and now selling properties for profit is their profit logic.

In addition, the current housing rental yield in first-tier cities is only 1.5% to 2%.

In the past, most people chose to hold real estate because house prices were expected to rise, so they did not pay much attention to rental yields.

When housing prices "do not rise", concerns about low rental yields will emerge.

　　He Qianru, director of the National Research Center of Midland Realty, believes that the increase in the number of second-hand housing listed for sale indicates to a certain extent that poor sales in the second-hand housing market have led to an increase in inventory.

However, if the circulation of second-hand housing is not smooth, it will be reversely transmitted to the first-hand housing market, resulting in a decline in the transaction volume of first-hand housing.

Generally speaking, these phenomena reflect that there is still a relatively large sales pressure in the national real estate market, and it is expected that the latest stimulus policies will activate the market and promote recovery.

　　Xu Yuejin, deputy research director of the Index Business Department of the China Index Research Institute, also believes that in the future, local governments are expected to further introduce and implement relevant property market support policies, gradually improve market expectations, and second-hand housing market transactions are expected to recover slowly, forming support for market operations, but This process can be relatively long.

　　Recently, favorable policies related to the property market have come into play again, and compared with the previous easing, which was mainly aimed at home buyers, most recent policies have begun to target real estate companies, including supply-side financing support, pre-sale funds revitalization and other policies.

With the introduction of more favorable policies for the property market, the impact of these policies will gradually be reflected in the property market.

　　Li Yujia believes that "if the supply-side risks are not eliminated, it will be difficult to boost the demand side, because home buyers and banks will think that developers are at risk, so banks will not grant loans, financial institutions will not provide financing, and home buyers will not buy houses. This leads to more tension in the capital chain of developers. In this case, price reduction promotions will be triggered, but price reduction promotions will cause land prices and house prices to fall to a certain extent, and also worsen market expectations. The demand side is the internal source of developers Financing, that is, the hematopoietic function of developers should be improved, and the supply-side problems will be dealt with more smoothly."