Securities Times reporter Sun Xiangfeng Liu Xiaoyou
The seesaw effect of stocks and bonds is prominent.
Recently, the stock market has recovered, while investors in the bond market are facing a test.
Wind data shows that yesterday, the 10-year treasury bond yield rose to 2.86%, and the 3-year treasury bond yield rose to 2.49%; the main contract of the 10-year treasury bond futures fell 0.27%, and the 5-year treasury bond futures fell 0.31%.
So far, the bond market has fallen for five consecutive trading days.
The recent adjustments in the bond market are mainly affected by factors such as liquidity convergence, optimization of epidemic prevention and control, and real estate support policies.
With the volatility of the bond market, the net value of bond funds has generally retreated recently, and net value wealth management products have also ushered in a "broken net tide".
There is a general retracement in net worth
Bond markets have been volatile this week.
"Recently, the performance of everyone's products has not been very good, and my products have also been affected, and the net value retracement is relatively large." A bond fund manager of a tens of billions of private placements in Shanghai said in an interview with a reporter from the Securities Times that the company has recently experienced single orders in many products. The daily retracement exceeds 0.15%, which is not small for many bond funds with an annualized rate of return of only about 5%.
Wind data shows that bond funds have generally fallen recently. On November 14, the average decline of medium and long-term pure bond funds in the whole market reached 0.29%.
On November 15, the medium and long-term pure bond funds in the whole market fell by an average of 0.09%.
The fluctuations in the bond market are behind the market's positive changes in macroeconomic and liquidity expectations.
"The interest rate of the national debt in the early stage has been at a historically low level, and the bond market's reaction to the bullish factors has been blunted. The introduction of the "Sixteen Financial Measures" policy has significantly improved the market's expectations for the future of the economy, and the bond market has ushered in a drastic adjustment under the resonance of multiple factors, and there is a rare market where bond interest rates rise by more than 10BP in a single day." Li Xifeng, a researcher at the R&D Department of China Securities Pengyuan told the Securities Times reporter.
CITIC Securities Chief Economist Mingming also expressed a similar view.
He told the Securities Times reporter that the recent introduction of a series of positive policies has gradually improved and repaired the entire market's expectations for the future economy, and the market's risk appetite is increasing.
In terms of liquidity, Mingming believes that the market was also betting that the central bank will continue to cut interest rates and RRR cuts. However, the central bank’s operation has been very stable recently, which has led to market expectations for lower interest rates and RRR cuts. It also led to adjustments in the bond market.
The central bank's recent operations also confirmed some of the market's judgments about liquidity.
On November 15, the central bank launched an 850 billion yuan one-year MLF (medium-term lending facility) operation and a 172 billion yuan 7-day open market reverse repurchase operation.
This month, the maturity of MLF is 1 trillion yuan, the central bank continued to issue 850 billion yuan, and the net withdrawal of MLF was 150 billion yuan.
Many organizations have called
Volatility in the bond market has an impact on bank wealth management that takes bond assets as the main allocation.
After 1,200 products "broke the net" in March, there has been a new round of "broken net" in bank wealth management in the past two days.
According to Wind data, as of November 15, among the 34,364 bank wealth management products in the market (the issuers include banks and wealth management companies), a total of 1,776 products have fallen below 1 in net value.
In the face of fluctuations in net worth, many investors concentrated on redeeming products.
A public offering fund executive told reporters that although many fund companies have also encountered redemptions to varying degrees, the overall situation is controllable.
Guosen Securities Bank analyst Wang Jian analyzed that the scale of wealth management has increased a lot since last year, from 26 trillion at the end of June last year to 29 trillion this year. There should be many customers with low risk appetite buying.
However, some investors still buy products with the thinking of just redemption in the past, and cannot accept the fluctuation of net value, so they start to redeem.
Liao Zhiming, chief analyst of the banking industry at China Merchants Securities, also noticed that wealth management products encountered pressure from customers to redeem.
He said that investors can look at it from another angle: the higher the coupon rate, the better the expected return on financial management in the future.
At this time, you should not redeem it, but you should consider buying it on a large scale.
Guoyuan Securities fixed income analysts believe that the current redemption of generalized funds such as bank wealth management has appeared, and the impact is mainly concentrated in the short-term debt and credit bond markets.
Judging from the data of the Foreign Exchange Trading Center, the main net selling institutions in the market in the past half week are still non-bank institutions such as securities companies and funds. Active agency "trading expectations", the stage of short-term debt reduction by the cargo base.
ICBC Wealth Management said that the current bond market, especially short-term assets, has basically adjusted to a cost-effective area after a rapid emotional release.
Bond products have coupon value, and only by holding them for a long time can they obtain stable returns.
In addition, managers including Bank of China Wealth Management, Southern Bank Wealth Management, Xingyin Wealth Management, CCB Wealth Management, and wealth management agency sales agencies including WeBank also came out to speak out, conveying to investors the idea that fixed-income wealth management is still a good investment choice (because it still has low volatility), and investors are expected to hold the product with a long-term perspective.
The bond market is hard to reverse in the short term
For the recent market adjustment, some market participants are pessimistic.
"We are very cautious in trading recently, and maintaining the annual income is the biggest appeal." The above-mentioned private equity agency person said that his private equity firm is relatively pessimistic about the bond market, and believes that short-term government bond yields are difficult to change the upward trend.
Xu Hanfei, Chief Bond Strategist of Industrial Bank's financial market business, recently issued an article that in the rest of 2022, the bond market will be affected by negative factors such as the inflection point of global liquidity margin loosening, the inflection point of improvement in risk appetite, and the internal factors of bond market adjustment. With a wave of falling market, it is expected that interest rates will rebound at least around 20BP, and the 10-year treasury bond rate may return to 3% again.
However, many market participants believe that it is difficult to reverse the bond market in the short term.
"Looking at the current situation, it is still too early to assert that the turning point in the bond market has occurred." The aforementioned fixed-income analyst at Guoyuan Securities believes that the probability of a major policy shift at this stage is low, so bonds temporarily lack the basis for the trend to turn from bulls to bears. With the adjustment of the yield rate, the attractiveness of bond assets is also gradually recovering, and the allocation value and transaction value will re-balance, thus stabilizing the market.
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