Sino-Singapore Jingwei, November 15 (Wang Yongle) Recently, the National Bureau of Statistics announced the consumer price index (CPI) of 31 provinces in October 2022.

China-Singapore Jingwei combing found that in October, the year-on-year CPI growth rate in 28 provinces was lower than that of the previous month.

Among them, the highest in Xinjiang was up 3.6%, and the lowest in Hainan was 1.0%.

CPI growth in 28 places narrowed

8 places to return to "1 era"

　　According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, in October 2022, the national CPI rose by 0.1% month-on-month and 2.1% year-on-year.

The year-on-year increase was significantly lower than that in September, and was lower than market expectations for the fourth consecutive month.

　　China-Singapore Jingwei combing found that the CPI of 31 provinces increased year-on-year in October, 12 provinces had an increase higher or lower than the national level, and 10 and 16 in September.

In addition, it is worth noting that only Xinjiang and Tibet rose higher than September, Yunnan was the same as last month, 28 provinces’ CPI year-on-year growth rate was lower than last month, and 28 provinces saw their growth increase last month.

　　Specifically, 12 provinces, including Xinjiang, Hubei, Sichuan, Chongqing, Yunnan, Jiangsu, Jiangxi, Tibet, Qinghai, Ningxia, Guizhou, and Hunan, rose higher than the national level. Among them, Xinjiang was the only province in the "3" era, which reached the 7; Liaoning, Heilongjiang, Anhui, Fujian, Henan, Guangxi, Gansu rose at the same level as the national level; Shanxi, Inner Mongolia, Zhejiang, Guangdong, Jilin, Shandong, Shanghai, Shaanxi, Tianjin, Hebei, Beijing, Hainan and other 12 provinces saw low growth At the national level, among them, 8 provinces including Hainan have returned to the "1 era".

　　In addition, from the perspective of increase and decrease, Xinjiang ranks first, reaching 0.5 percentage points, and Hainan has the largest drop of 1.7 percentage points.

　　Wang Qing, chief macro analyst of Dongfang Jincheng, pointed out that the CPI in October fell relatively fast. In addition to the increase in the base in the same period of the previous year, it was mainly due to the decline in vegetable prices in the month, which offset the impact of the increase in pork prices and pulled down the food CPI. At the same time, the decline in international oil prices in the previous period also drove the price of domestic refined oil products lower month-on-month, and the year-on-year increase narrowed.

In addition, the core CPI continued to be at a low level below 1.0% year-on-year, indicating that the current overall price situation is stable.

How will CPI go in the future?

　　Since November, the upward trend of pork prices has been effectively contained, and institutions generally predict that the year-on-year CPI growth in November will still be adjusted.

　　Regarding pork prices, Meng Weixiao, chief analyst of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery at Zheshang Securities Research Institute, recently told Sino-Singapore Jingwei that pig prices will have a significant correction in November.

The main reason is that the short-term secondary fattening has increased, and there is still some time before the traditional peak season for pork demand such as cured meat and sausage, and the support for the continued rise in pig prices is weak.

　　"With the advent of the peak consumption season in December, the operating rate of slaughtering companies has increased significantly, and the price of pigs should remain high and fluctuating. At the same time, we must also pay attention to the amount of imported frozen meat." Meng Weixiao explained.

　　According to the macro report of Western Securities, consumption may still face certain downward pressure due to the impact of the epidemic.

Judging from high-frequency data, the prices of agricultural products have continued to fall since November, and the CPI may remain low during the year.

　　Wang Qing said that under the prospect that pork prices have basically peaked, vegetable prices have expanded year-on-year declines, and weak consumption will continue to curb the growth of core CPI, the CPI in November may further fall to about 1.8% year-on-year, and prices have remained stable in the fourth quarter. suspense.

　　The macro research team of BOC Securities predicts that under the influence of the base effect in November, the year-on-year CPI growth rate will still have room to decline, but the year-on-year CPI growth rate will increase significantly since December.

　　According to Yang Xin, an analyst at Hongta Securities, the fall in the CPI in October indicates that the CPI in September may be the highest point of the year, and the price of pigs may continue to rise. However, under the guidance of the policy, the upward curve is expected to be moderate, and the inflation pressure will remain relatively low during the year.

　　The team of Zhongtai Macro Chen Xing said that under the frequent intervention of stockpiling and storage, the increase in pig prices has slowed down significantly since November, and the prices of vegetables and fruits continued to fall. It may turn negative, and the year-on-year growth rate will fall under a high base, or fall below 2%.

Looking forward to next year, the year-on-year growth rate of CPI is high in the first quarter, but it is difficult to exceed 3%.

(Sino-Singapore Jingwei APP)

(The opinions in this article are for reference only and do not constitute investment advice. Investment is risky, and you need to be cautious when entering the market.)

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