Our reporter Liu Qi

　　On October 31, the People's Bank of China (hereinafter referred to as the "Central Bank") conducted a 70 billion yuan 7-day reverse repurchase operation through interest rate bidding to maintain stable liquidity at the end of the month, and the operating interest rate remained unchanged at 2%.

Since 10 billion yuan of reverse repurchase expired on that day, the central bank's open market realized a net investment of 60 billion yuan.

　　Looking back at the central bank's recent open market operations, from October 9 to October 21, an average of 2 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repurchase was carried out, and it rose to 10 billion yuan on October 24.

On October 25, the central bank announced that in order to hedge against the impact of factors such as the peak of the tax period and government bond issuance and payment, and to maintain stable liquidity at the end of the month, a reverse repurchase operation of 230 billion yuan was carried out.

On October 26 and October 27, the reverse repurchase operations remained at the level of 100 billion yuan, 280 billion yuan and 240 billion yuan respectively. On October 28, the amount was reduced to 90 billion yuan.

　　Regarding the change in the scale of reverse repurchase operations, Zhou Maohua, a macro researcher at the Financial Market Department of China Everbright Bank, told the Securities Daily reporter that since October 24, the scale of reverse repurchase operations has increased first and then decreased, but the overall investment has remained net, mainly 10%. Disturbed by short-term factors such as tax peaks and local government bond issuance at the end of the month, market interest rates rose rapidly, reflecting the increased market demand for liquidity.

In the past two days, the scale of the central bank’s reverse repurchase operation has dropped to less than 100 billion yuan, mainly because the aforementioned short-term disturbance factors have faded out, and the central bank has taken care of funds before, and market liquidity has tended to be loose. The central bank flexibly adjusted the intensity of open market operations to ensure liquidity. Sexually adequate.

　　Judging from the liquidity indicator DR007 (the 7-day repurchase rate of interbank depository financial institutions pledged with interest rate bonds), data from the National Interbank Funding Center shows that DR007 has been rising since October 21, and on October 27 It rose to the highest level in the month at 2.0229%, slightly higher than the current 7-day reverse repurchase rate.

Then DR007 fell, and the weighted average interest rate on October 28 was 1.9658%.

As of 16:00 on October 31, the weighted average interest rate of DR007 was reported at 1.938%.

　　Looking forward to November, Mingming, chief economist of CITIC Securities, said in an interview with a reporter from "Securities Daily" that completely excluding the factors of MLF (Medium-Term Lending Facility) and the expiration of reverse repurchase, there will be no liquidity gap in November.

　　Zhou Maohua predicts that market liquidity will continue to remain reasonably sufficient in November.

At present, my country continues to implement a proactive fiscal policy and a prudent monetary policy to create a suitable monetary and financial environment for the recovery of domestic economic demand.

At the same time, the central bank has a wealth of tools to deal with short-term capital disturbances.

　　It is worth mentioning that Yi Gang, the governor of the central bank, was commissioned by the State Council to report to the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress on the financial work situation, saying that he would "continue to implement a prudent monetary policy."

It mentioned, “In terms of aggregate, keep liquidity reasonably sufficient, increase credit support for the real economy, keep the growth rate of money supply and social financing scale basically matching the growth rate of the nominal economy, dredge the monetary policy transmission mechanism, strengthen the The stability of credit growth will help realize the comprehensive effect of expanding investment, creating employment, and promoting consumption, and stabilize the macroeconomic market.”

　　In addition, it should be noted that the maturity of MLF in November was 1 trillion yuan, the largest in the year.

In this context, is it possible to usher in a RRR cut in November?

Mingming believes that the probability of the RRR cut in November is not particularly high, but the liquidity is expected to remain reasonably sufficient, and the capital interest rate center may rise slightly.

The current monetary policy is still in the loose range, and there is still a possibility of RRR cuts in the next few months, but the distribution of the landing probability of RRR cuts from high to low is January next year, December this year, and November this year.

　　"From the perspective of the current economic recovery and the attitude of the central bank, there is no need to worry about the rapid tightening of funds. After the end of the month, it is expected that DR007 will still decline. If the central bank does not cut the reserve ratio in November, then the probability of the same amount of continued MLF will be reduced. The substantial increase may lead to a slight increase in the capital interest rate center, but it is still lower than the monthly level, and it is expected that DR007 will fluctuate within the range of 1.7% to 1.9%." Mingming said.

(Securities Daily)

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