On Tuesday, November 1, the Russian currency slightly depreciates on the Moscow Exchange.

During the opening of trading, the dollar rose

by 0.07% - up to 61.52 rubles, and the euro exchange rate - by 0.35%, up to 61.09 rubles.

The national currency is weakening in the first auctions of November after a moderate depreciation in October.

So, for the second month of autumn, the dollar exchange rate on the Moscow Exchange increased by 5.18% - to 61.48 rubles, and the euro - by 7.36%, to 60.88 rubles.

At the same time, at a certain point, the indicators briefly rose to 64.93 and 64.08 rubles, respectively, the highest levels since the beginning of July.

In the near future, the ruble will remain under certain speculative pressure, Oleg Syrovatkin, a leading analyst at the Otkritie Investments global research department, believes.

In his opinion, in November, some market participants may begin to actively sell Russian currency on the stock exchange and buy foreign currency in anticipation of the previously announced Western sanctions against Moscow.

In particular, we are talking about the European ban on sea supplies of oil from Russia and the establishment of a ceiling price for the transportation of this raw material to third countries.

The restrictions are expected to come into effect on December 5.

“Much will depend on the actual implementation of these restrictions and on the success of Russian companies in redirecting supplies to other markets.

Under these conditions, some of the investors may want to play against the ruble, ”Syrovatkin said in a conversation with RT.

However, as the analyst emphasized, the ruble is still significantly supported by the imbalance of supply and demand in the Russian foreign exchange market.

Thus, dollars and euros received from exports continue to enter the country in significant volumes, including due to high prices for energy resources.

Meanwhile, business interest in foreign banknotes remains relatively low, as imports have not yet recovered from the spring collapse.

As a result, according to the latest calculations of the Central Bank, from January to September 2022, the current account surplus of Russia's balance of payments (the difference between the inflow of foreign currency from abroad and its outflow outside the country) reached $198.4 billion. This is approximately 2.6 times more than for the same period in 2021.

At the same time, as experts of the Central Bank note, the situation in Russia's foreign trade has now begun to gradually change.

According to the regulator, if from April to June the export of goods from the country increased by 27% in annual terms, then from July to September the growth was only 5%.

“This was due to the slowdown in the annual growth rate of world prices for many commodities.

In addition, the physical volume of energy exports decreased, mainly due to the suspension of gas transportation through the Nord Stream 1 pipeline and the increased effect of restrictions imposed by unfriendly countries on the supply of domestic goods to the world market, ”the Central Bank explained.

Meanwhile, in the dynamics of imports, on the contrary, recovery trends are noted.

Thus, from April to June, the volume of deliveries of foreign goods to Russia decreased by 23% in annual terms, but from July to September, the figure decreased by only 14%.

The Central Bank attributes this to the reorientation to alternative suppliers and the activation of parallel imports.

“The growth of export flows from Russia is likely to continue to slow down in the foreseeable future, while import flows are able to grow.

In this case, the rate of increase in the trade surplus will decrease, and the ruble will move to a moderate weakening, ”said Mikhail Zeltser, an expert on the BCS World of Investments stock market, in an interview with RT.

Balance of factors

Also, the general deterioration of the situation in the global economy can play against the ruble, as previously stated by the chairman of the Central Bank Elvira Nabiullina.

She said attempts by many countries to curb high inflation by raising interest rates risk spilling over into another global recession.

Such a development of events will have a negative impact on the supply of Russian goods abroad and the dynamics of the national currency, the head of the Central Bank believes.

“The situation in the global economy is deteriorating... Further intensification of crisis processes in the world and the expansion of sanctions mean a shift towards an even greater reduction in Russian exports and a possible weakening of the ruble,” Nabiullina said during a press conference on October 28.

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At the same time, the decision of the Central Bank to take a break in easing its monetary policy can support the national currency.

Georgy Vashchenko, deputy director of the analytical department of Freedom Finance Global, spoke about this in an interview with RT.

Recall that since April, the Central Bank has been continuously reducing the key rate for six months to stimulate economic activity in the country.

The actions of the regulator also led to a drop in the yield of Russian federal loan bonds (OFZ).

It became less and less profitable for large investors to keep money in these securities, and the outflow of funds from the OFZ market put pressure on the ruble.

However, already in October the Central Bank decided not to change the rate, which could have a positive impact on the Russian currency, says Georgy Vashchenko.

“The Bank of Russia has suspended the rate cut cycle, which means that bond yields will remain close to current levels.

Accordingly, high demand for these securities from financial institutions will continue,” the analyst explained.

Against this background, experts interviewed by RT do not expect a significant depreciation of the national currency in the coming month.

According to Mikhail Zeltser, until the end of November, the dollar and euro will continue to fluctuate in the range of 61-65 rubles, and Oleg Syrovatkin predicts that the indicators will remain in the corridor of 61-64 rubles.

Georgy Vashchenko adheres to a similar assessment.

“The dollar exchange rate in November, most likely, will be traded in the range of 60-65.

In principle, the equilibrium level has already been formed, and so far there are no weighty reasons that would seriously unbalance supply and demand, ”concluded Vashchenko.