The Spanish economy stops growing when it is still 2% below the pre-pandemic level
Inflation
set
a new
historical record in the Eurozone
in the month of
October
, when prices were on average
10.7%
higher than in the same month of the previous year.
Spain
, with a harmonized inflation of
7.3%
in October, was the
second country with a more moderate rise in prices
, behind France, where the CPI rose by 7.1%, according to data published on Monday by Eurostat.
This is an unprecedented increase in inflation, which puts the
European Central Bank (ECB) on the ropes.
The institution that regulates the monetary policy of the euro zone
has already raised interest rates to 2%
since the summer and, even so, this tightening of financing conditions has not had an effect for the time being.
Economists who defend that the inflation that Europe suffers is due to supply and not to demand, maintain that no matter how much they raise rates to cool down the economy -which could worsen the recession-, the ECB will not be able to contain inflation.
The institution chaired by
Christine Lagarde
, however, is using
all its tools
to try to fulfill its mandate:
price stability,
which involves achieving stable inflation of around 2%, five times lower than the current rate.
Despite constant rate hikes
, inflation has continued to rise: it
was 8.1% in May;
8.6%, in June;
8.9% in July;
9.1% in August;
9.9% in September and 10.7% in October.
Eurostat has explained that the main components that have pushed up prices in October have been
energy,
which would have increased
by 41.9% year-on-year in October
-the highest rate recorded-;
food
, alcoholic beverages and tobacco
(+13.1%);
non-energy industrial products (+6%) and services (+4.4%).
Core
inflation -
which excludes the price of fresh food and energy products, as they are the most volatile - stood at
6.4% year
-on-year in October, four tenths above the level of September.
In monthly
terms , headline
inflation rose 1.5% in October compared to September, while core inflation rose seven tenths.
The countries with the highest inflation levels were
Estonia (22.4%), Lithuania (22%), Latvia (21.8%),
the Netherlands (16.8%), Slovakia (14.5%), Belgium (13.1%) and Italy (12.8%).
In Germany, inflation stood at 11.6%, compared to 10.9% in September;
while in Portugal it rose to 10.6% in October, from 9.8% in September.
growth stalls
Eurostat also advanced this Monday a preliminary estimate of the
economic growth of the Eurozone and the EU,
which registered a
GDP advance of 0.2% in the third quarter,
in line with that of Spain.
This implies a
stagnation of economic growth
on the continent, after GDP grew by 0.8% in the Eurozone and 0.7% in the EU in the second quarter.
"While the cracks in the Eurozone economy are clearly showing,
the economy continued to expand in the third quarter.
In
Germany
, it appears that this was mainly due to the later stages of the uptick in consumption, while in
France
consumption growth had already stagnated and investment was the positive surprise.
Spain
experienced a rapid slowdown in growth, but
the recovery in tourism prevented the economy from entering the red in the third quarter, "explain
ING
analysts
.
They warn that "
the outlook remains bleak":
consumer confidence is near record lows as real wage growth is at a multi-decade low right now.
"This weighs heavily on the consumer outlook, as retail sales have already trended lower in recent quarters. The reopening of economies boosted services, but that effect is now fading. With interest rates rising and the economic outlook uncertain, investment expectations are also weakening. Therefore,
we still expect the economy to contract in the coming quarters," they
warn.
The quarterly growth of 0.2% in Spain is in line with that registered in the average for the continent.
The countries that grew the most
in the period were
Sweden
(+0.7%) and
Italy
(+0.5%), while some countries have already seen their economy shrink:
Latvia lost 1.7% and Belgium and Austria decreased by 0.1%.
In year-on-
year
terms , compared to the third quarter of 2021,
GDP grew by 2.1% in the Eurozone
and 2.4% in the EU in the third quarter, slowing down considerably compared to the 4.3% rebound it had registered in the previous quarter in both zones.
Spain
the
second country with the highest growth (3.8%),
only behind
Portugal
, whose GDP rose by 4.9%.
The only country that decreases in year-on-year terms is Latvia, whose GDP contracted by 0.4% compared to the third quarter of 2021.
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