Firstly, it turns out differently and secondly than you think.
The slightly silly saying goes with every tax estimate: When circumstances change, it affects federal, state and local revenue.
Because this kind of thing happens all the time, the members of the working group usually meet twice a year.
For three days, they use programs and experience to play through how changing growth prospects, new employment prospects and updated inflation estimates are likely to affect the various taxes.
Although the result is always just a snapshot with a short expiration date, the tax estimate is helpful.
After all, finance ministers and parliaments need a basis for budget planning.
This fall, the result of the tax estimate is extraordinary: not because the revenue for the next few years is higher than expected.
That was often the case.
But that was due to better economic development, which not least benefited the state.
Now the situation is different: the federal government is expecting a recession – but the tax authorities should take in more.
The reason for this seemingly paradoxical development is obvious: it is the extremely high rate of inflation.
If salaries follow the prices - even if only partially and only with a delay - the tax authorities always collect above average thanks to the progressive income tax, even if the people can't really afford it anymore.
It is therefore correct that Finance Minister Christian Lindner took the initiative early on to further shift the key values of the tax rate in order to fully compensate for the "cold progression".
What should be taken for granted was not a matter of course in the coalition of SPD, Greens and FDP.
That inflation devalues savings is bad enough.
The state should not also enrich itself with their help at the expense of its citizens.