The 3000-point defense battle has started again: private equity reiterates its bullishness on A shares and believes that there is strong support

　　A-shares started the 3,000-point defense battle again.

　　As of the close on October 20, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.31% to 3035.05 points; the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.56% to 10965.33 points; the ChiNext Index fell 1% to 2401.72 points.

　　In the current external context of rising inflation and strong expectations of Fed rate hikes, where will A shares go?

A number of well-known private equity firms reiterated their optimism on A-shares, bringing more confidence to the market.

Is 3000 the bottom?

　　According to a previous survey conducted by PE Pai Pai.com, 78% of the PE firms believed that the 3,000-point Shanghai index has fully reflected various negative factors, and the valuation is already at a relatively bottom. Therefore, they believe that 3,000 points are the bottom and have strong support.

　　"With the decline of the market index, the risk premium of the equity market is close to a historically high position, indicating that many future uncertainties are reflected in the stock price." Dong Chengfei, partner and chief research officer of Ruijun Asset, said in pointed out in the September monthly report.

　　From the perspective of Xianju Capital, the current market already has the characteristics of a bottom: the market has severely shrunk, valuations have entered the bottom area, sentiment indicators have bottomed out, inertial selling or panic selling, etc.

Bear markets are not easy to bottom out. Historically, the bottom of each bear market is a large range, and it takes several painful bottoms. At this stage, you need more patience and confidence.

　　Qinghequan Investment believes that the market position has once again reached the historical bottom.

The first is the valuation quantile: the current market valuation quantile is about 35%, and the CSI 300 and the ChiNext Index are both around 30%.

The second is the calculation of the stock-bond return (ERP): the current market-wide static PE is 16.2 times, the risk-free rate of return is 2.75%, and the ERP is 3.4%, which is at a historically high level.

In extreme cases, the outsole space is less than 10% from several times in history.

The third is market sentiment: the latest internal indicators have fallen below 30%, which is in the historically cold range, which means that the market's downward momentum is very limited.

Fourth, other indicators: the current market break-even rate exceeds 12%, which is at a high level in the past 13 years.

　　"Although the current market lacks strong driving forces, the bottom of the market also reflects a great pessimistic outlook. Historical experience shows that when the bottom reverses, expectations are often more important than reality, and only a little confidence is needed at this time. Rebuilding." Qinghequan Investment pointed out.

　　Kou Zhiwei, a partner of Chongyang Investment, also believes that A-shares are indeed in a bottom range. This bottom may not be a short-term bottom, but a bottom in the next 2 to 3 years or even longer.

　　"The recent market sentiment is extremely pessimistic, and we continue to believe that there is no need to be overly pessimistic in the medium and long term." Jinglin Asset believes that there are three main reasons.

　　First, the turnover of A-shares has recently reached the bottom again, showing signs of bottoming out in market sentiment; second, market valuations have become relatively cheap, and are approaching the historical extreme level; third, various internal and external factors since the third quarter As a result, the performance of Chinese assets is relatively sluggish, especially in September, the adjustment of Chinese assets is relatively large, indicating that the recent market sentiment is extremely pessimistic, but the issues that the market is most concerned about are gradually improving and optimizing.

The market breeds a new round of opportunities

　　Where is the potential turning point in the future market?

　　Gathering Capital believes that on the one hand, it pays attention to the progress of the Fed’s rate hike rhythm, and on the other hand, it pays attention to the repair of the domestic economy.

　　Xiangju Capital pointed out that the policy has been gradually exerted in China, but it has not been transmitted to credit expansion, and the effect of economic recovery remains to be seen.

The situation in the United States is relatively more complicated. At present, the US economy has shown signs of recession, but inflation and employment data are still high.

In the future, pay attention to the month-on-month inflation data or employment data. If there are consecutive months of declines in the market, the market may begin to shift the trading policy to expectations; but in this process, we need to pay attention to the fact that if the economy has a "hard landing" before inflation falls, you need to beware of "" black swan" risk.

　　In the view of Chongyang Investment, China's economic development is resilient, the importance of the capital market in high-quality development continues to increase, and the situation of more money and lack of assets in the context of economic transformation drives long-term funds to enter the market. Under these circumstances, A-shares do not have a full-scale bear market. The basics.

The current weakness of the A-share market is more of a structural rebalancing after the structural market has been deduced to the extreme.

After the short-term risks are released, the market may be breeding a new round of structural market opportunities.

　　Zhao Jun, founder of Danshuiquan, said in a road show a few days ago that after this round of adjustment, outstanding companies should be able to survive the difficult period and finally achieve performance that surpasses the best operating level in history. Large market share or competitiveness.

　　Star Stone Investment pointed out that the release of internal and external risks, especially when external demand weakens, new changes will occur in the market, and a turnaround is coming.

The turnaround in domestic demand is coming, and the strengthening of domestic demand policies will eventually be reflected in the fundamentals.

Optimistic about consumption, medicine, new energy and other sectors

　　"Gold is pouring everywhere." Xia Junjie, the founder of 10 billion private equity Renqiao Assets, said that he would live up to the opportunity and be brave. "Currently, our portfolio maintains the highest stock position in history and the highest proportion of Hong Kong stocks."

　　Xia Junjie pointed out that the future market is worth looking forward to. On the one hand, for China, the stabilization of the economy requires sufficient liquidity, some policy adjustments, and of course some time; on the other hand, for the United States, The Fed's judgment on inflation has been too lagging. Inflation will ease, and recession will turn from worry to reality. At that time, monetary policy will be loosened again, and global liquidity will reverse.

　　In terms of specific sectors, Zhao Jun pointed out that when the economy returns from excessive contraction to the equilibrium point, he is optimistic about two types of investment opportunities.

　　The first is investment opportunities related to stable growth, which is a recovery opportunity after being suppressed by short-term extremely pessimistic fundamentals and emotions; the second is consumer-related opportunities, and we are optimistic about its resilience and elasticity.

To lay out these assets may sacrifice part of the time efficiency, but its certainty is high.

　　The industries currently concerned by Star Stone Investment are concentrated in aviation tourism, medicine, logistics, media and Internet, etc., and other industries are also actively concerned.

　　Star Stone Investment said that the pharmaceutical industry has been suppressed by policies in the past few years. Whether it is a centralized procurement policy or innovative negotiations, the pharmaceutical industry continues to "squeeze water"; The landscape is being continuously optimized, and investment opportunities in sub-sectors are emerging.

The current valuation of the pharmaceutical industry is at a historically low level.

　　"The investment opportunities we focus on focus on innovative drugs, consumer goods and medical services." Star Stone Investment said that although the current investment opportunities may not be systematic in the industry, with the further normalization of policies, pharmaceutical investment opportunities will shift from local to partial entire industry.

　　Qinghequan Investment said that it is now in an investment cycle of "high inflation, high interest rates and low growth", with rising inflation rates and interest rate centers, challenges to loose liquidity, and increased economic and market volatility.

The essence is to require individual stocks to have a certain margin of safety, and to look for opportunities to maintain medium-to-high growth in performance in the next 2 to 3 years.

"So, in terms of investment opportunities, we are optimistic about structural opportunities in new and old energy, chemical materials, TMT, food and beverages."