Author: Zhu Yanran

　　"We have done a lot of monitoring recently. Orders for key projects such as energy equipment, petrochemical equipment, mining machinery, construction machinery, CNC machine tools, and industrial robots in China have grown significantly. These have provided rare opportunities for upstream and downstream enterprises." National Development Zhao Chenxin, member of the party group and deputy director of the Reform Commission, said at the first press conference of the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China on October 17.

　　Zhao Chenxin revealed that from the current situation, the economy rebounded significantly in the third quarter.

Major economic indicators such as industry, service industry, investment, and consumption are all recovering continuously, and the overall trend of recovery and development has been maintained.

　　In recent months, there have been twists and turns in economic recovery, and as short-term supply shocks have eased, insufficient demand remains the core issue of current economic operations.

Many places and departments have intensively implemented policies to effectively expand domestic demand, continuously expand effective investment space, and continue to promote the recovery of the consumer market.

　　During the golden autumn season, every weekend in the squares or open green spaces in Shanghai, Fuzhou and other places, young people can often be seen in groups to experience novel sports.

Niche sports such as Frisbee, flag football, and land surfing have gradually emerged, not only driving people's enthusiasm for participating in sports and fitness, but also driving the rapid growth of sports consumption.

　　A few days ago, a press conference on the implementation of the duty-free shopping policy for tourists on outlying islands in Hainan revealed that two more duty-free shops in outlying islands in Hainan have been approved according to procedures.

Among them, Haikou International Duty Free City will officially open on October 28 this year, and will become the world's largest single duty-free shop after opening.

　　The agency predicts that the fourth quarter is the traditional peak season for consumption, and there are many consumption-promoting scenarios such as the National Day holiday and "Double Eleven", which will help stimulate consumer demand, but the degree of repair is still greatly affected by the epidemic.

In terms of investment, fixed asset investment will maintain a rapid recovery in the fourth quarter, the real estate market is expected to bottom out and stabilize at a low level, and infrastructure investment and manufacturing investment will maintain rapid growth.

　　Core CPI hits 18-month low

　　China's economic development is facing the triple pressure of demand contraction, supply shock and weakening expectations. Since the beginning of this year, due to the rebound of the epidemic in some regions and related epidemic prevention measures, the contradiction of insufficient demand has become more prominent.

　　According to the manufacturing PMI survey data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, although the new order index rebounded for two consecutive months in September, the index was still below 50%, which was lower than the production index in the same period, indicating that the recovery of the demand side was weaker than that of the supply side.

The enterprise survey showed that although the proportion of manufacturing enterprises reflecting insufficient market demand decreased by 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, it was still at a relatively high level of more than 54%.

　　Inflation data also confirms this.

China's consumer price index (CPI) rose 2.8% year-on-year in September.

Among them, the core CPI excluding food and energy prices rose by 0.6% year-on-year, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month and a new low since April 2021.

　　Core CPI reflects weak overall demand.

Wang Qing, chief macro analyst at Oriental Jincheng, said that the core CPI, which can better reflect the overall price level after deducting the volatile food and energy prices, rose 0.6% year-on-year in September, the lowest level in the past 18 months.

Behind the slow recovery of domestic consumption, the supply of various goods and services is sufficient, and the market supply and demand balance does not support the sharp rise in prices; at the same time, this also reflects that the domestic macro policy has not been flooded in recent years, which has provided stability for prices. A more favorable financial and monetary environment.

　　Wen Bin, chief economist of the Minsheng Bank Research Institute, analyzed the reasons for the decline in rents by 0.2% month-on-month. The combination of services and durable consumer goods fell month-on-month, resulting in a weak core CPI, which also reflects that the current lack of domestic demand is still the main contradiction of the economy.

　　In terms of producer price index (PPI), the PPI in September rose by 0.9% year-on-year, a decrease of 1.4 percentage points from the previous month.

In September's 0.9% year-on-year increase in PPI, the impact of last year's price changes was about 1.3 percentage points, and the impact of new price increases was about -0.4 percentage points.

The international crude oil and other bulk commodity prices continued to decline, the demand of some domestic industries rebounded, and the overall trend of industrial product prices declined, but the downward trend was slowing down.

　　Due to the slow recovery of end consumer demand and the continued weak growth of downstream commodity prices, the positive effect on the overall PPI is relatively limited.

Wang Qing said that with the rapid decline of the PPI of the means of production recently, the increase of the PPI of the means of living has surpassed that of the means of production, which is conducive to improving the profit margins of mid- and downstream enterprises from the cost side.

However, the current growth of PPI for living materials is still sluggish, indicating that the price rise of downstream commodities continues to be weak.

This also means that the current operating pressure of mid- and downstream enterprises has shifted from the cost side to the demand side, and the policy focus of ensuring market players has shifted from tax credits and financial subsidies to intensifying efforts to boost macroeconomic aggregate demand.

　　Wen Bin also believes that from the overall performance of the upstream and downstream of the industry chain, the upstream price increase pressure has basically been transmitted to the downstream, and as the external imported inflation pressure has dropped, the upstream and downstream price increase pressure has been inverted, and the profit space of the middle and downstream has rebounded. .

Looking forward to the fourth quarter, with the continuous tightening of monetary policies in major economies, the future international commodity prices will change from a unilateral rise in the previous period to wide fluctuations, and the external inflation pressure faced by my country will generally ease.

At present, my country's inflation situation is quite different from that of Europe and the United States. In particular, my country's core inflation is still weak, and PPI is also facing deflation. Monetary policy should be "me-based", giving priority to boosting domestic demand and achieving internal balance.

　　Boosting domestic demand becomes a top priority

　　Insufficient effective demand is one of the main factors affecting my country's economic recovery and development.

Many places and departments are making effective domestic demand expansion a top priority for stabilizing the economy.

Adhering to expanding domestic demand and building a strong domestic market will not only help to achieve sustained and stable economic growth, but also help to cope with external risks and improve people's well-being.

　　The report of the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China pointed out that we must adhere to the theme of promoting high-quality development, organically combine the implementation of the strategy of expanding domestic demand with the deepening of supply-side structural reforms, enhance the endogenous power and reliability of the domestic cycle, and improve the quality and level of the international cycle. , accelerate the construction of a modern economic system, focus on improving total factor productivity, focus on improving the resilience and safety of industrial chains and supply chains, focus on promoting urban-rural integration and coordinated regional development, and promote the effective improvement of quality and rational growth of the economy.

　　Zhao Chenxin said that although the Chinese economy has fluctuated from month to month since the beginning of this year, it has generally continued to recover and develop.

　　Zhao Chenxin said that from the current situation, the economy rebounded significantly in the third quarter.

From a global perspective, China's economic performance is still outstanding. Consumer prices have risen moderately, in sharp contrast to the high global inflation. The employment situation is generally stable, the balance of payments is basically balanced, and foreign exchange reserves have remained above 3 trillion US dollars.

From a comprehensive perspective of multiple economic indicators, my country's economic performance is still outstanding.

　　Wang Xiaohong, deputy director of the Scientific Research Information Department of the China International Economic Exchange Center, said that my country has a population of more than 1.4 billion and more than 400 million middle-income groups. Consumption has been the first engine of economic growth for many years, and the trend of consumption upgrading is in the ascendant.

In the future, my country's promotion of high-quality development must meet the people's growing needs for a better life. We must adhere to the strategic basis of expanding domestic demand, enhance the resilience of the supply system, form a more efficient and high-quality input-output relationship, and enhance the domestic cycle. Endogenous power and reliability.

　　Luo Zhiheng, chief economist of Yuekai Securities, told Yicai.com that there are two ways to expand domestic demand—consumption and investment. Among them, consumption is a slow variable in the entire economic activity, and it is expected that it will be difficult to make major changes in the short term. Consumption must be carried out by improving residents' consumption capacity and marginal consumption propensity, which also involves a series of in-depth reforms and measures such as adjusting the pattern of national income distribution, increasing the income of rural low-income groups, and improving the level of social security, which is difficult to solve in the short term.

Therefore, stabilizing the economy still depends on investment, and the biggest starting point is still infrastructure investment.

　　The previous policies to stabilize the growth of infrastructure, which have been gradually increased, are gradually taking effect.

Funds in place for infrastructure investment increased by 17.4% in August, supporting a growth rate of more than 15% in infrastructure investment in the month; two batches of policy development financial instruments of more than 600 billion yuan have basically fallen into the project. As of mid-September, China Development Bank and Agricultural Development Bank The issuance has invested 360 billion yuan and 190 billion yuan respectively; more than 500 billion yuan of special bond balance limits have also been allocated to local governments, which will be reviewed and approved by the standing committees of the provincial people's congresses at the end of September, and it is planned to be issued in October.

　　For the continuous downturn in the real estate market, policy efforts are also increasing.

In September, the special loan funds for "guaranteing and handing over buildings" began to be implemented. The Monetary Policy Committee's third-quarter regular meeting emphasized the need to promote accelerated implementation and use, and said that appropriate efforts should be increased as needed to guide commercial banks to provide supporting financing support.

　　Everbright Securities pointed out that in terms of investment expansion, there is still a lot of room for manufacturing and infrastructure.

From the perspective of supporting policies, in addition to making good project reserves, securing project construction funds is the key.

In terms of promoting consumption, targeted consumption promotion policies need to be adopted in the short term to accelerate the recovery of key consumption such as bulk items.

In the medium and long term, it is necessary to speed up the supply-side structural reform, adapt to the needs of consumption upgrading, and tap the space for green consumption and rural consumption.

　　Wang Qing said that the key to stabilizing the macroeconomic market in the fourth quarter is to boost effective demand.

The focus of the next macro policy will be to promote residents' consumption and expand private investment, especially to promote the stabilization and recovery of the real estate industry as soon as possible, increase the activity of the real economy, fully release the credit easing effect, and smooth the macroeconomic cycle at both ends of supply and demand.