Anyone who walked through Dutch cities in the past few months guessed it: the wind on the real estate market is turning after almost a decade of boom.

Significantly more "Te koop" sales signs can be seen in the windows and in front of the doors.

The subjectively observed turnaround is now also reflected in figures - and in forecasts for the coming year.

Klaus Max Smolka

Editor in Business.

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The NVM brokers' association provided the most striking indication these days.

According to their calculations, the average price for an existing apartment fell by 6 percent in the third quarter compared to the second quarter.

The movements are taking place at an extremely high level, as the market has been considered overheated for years.

Year-on-year - compared to the third quarter of 2021 - prices were still slightly up, namely by 2 percent.

From this point of view, the price increases have leveled off very sharply, from rates that recently approached 20 percent.

In absolute terms, an average of 425,000 euros has to be paid for an existing apartment in the fifth-largest EU economy.

And bidders still pay more than the original asking price in two thirds of the cases.

Highest minus since measurements began

But the minus compared to the previous quarter is the highest that the NVM has measured since the survey began in the mid-1990s.

The figures "indicate that the extremely overheated market of the past year and a half has reached a turning point," said Lana Gerssen, acting NVM chairwoman.

Reasons: increased mortgage rates, energy costs and other types of inflation that reduce purchasing power.

That takes “the madness out of the market”.

The number of apartments for sale almost doubled within a year - albeit at a still low level compared to previous years.

The properties are now also longer for sale.

According to the land register office, the number of transactions has fallen compared to the previous year.

However, new construction is sluggish, which affects supply.

"We see that house prices are adjusting faster than before to the deteriorating economic environment," analyzes bank ABN Amro.

For the year as a whole, she now expects a less steep price increase, but still 14 percent.

In 2023, however, they expect the average price to fall by 2.5 percent instead of rising by this rate as previously forecast.

"If the economy goes downhill more quickly, a further decline in real estate prices cannot be ruled out." The central bank DNB sees problems for buyers who recently got involved with expensive and variable mortgage rates.

However, many buyers agree to fixed rates for longer periods;

and what used to be extremely easy mortgage conditions have been tightened.

All in all, DNB President Klaas Knot speaks of a “welcome cooling off”.

According to the series of figures from the statistics agency CBS, existing apartments cost more than four times as much today as they did in 1995. There was only a brief dip after the financial crisis.

The price hike has become a political issue because younger people without inheritance hardly have a chance.