Without sudden movements: how gasoline prices in Russia can change in autumn

During the week, from September 5 to September 11, the average retail price of AI-92 gasoline in Russia did not change and remained at the level of 47.24 rubles per liter, AI-95 fuel went up by 1 kopeck - up to 51.34 rubles per liter, and the cost diesel fuel increased by 2 kopecks - up to 54.76 rubles per liter.

Such data on Wednesday, September 14, was published by Rosstat.

According to the Ministry of Economic Development, since the beginning of 2022, gasoline at Russian gas stations has risen in price by an average of 0.67%.

At the same time, over the past 12 months, prices have added only 3.12%, which is 4.5

times lower than the annual inflation rate

(14.06%).

According to experts, the weak dynamics of gasoline prices is largely due to an excess of fuel in the country.

Against the backdrop of large-scale Western sanctions against Moscow, oil companies began to experience difficulties in selling raw materials abroad, and businesses redirected part of their supplies to the domestic market.

“Recently, the prices at filling stations have hardly changed, as the overall situation on the market has been relatively stable.

Difficulties with exports still persist, and therefore manufacturers are now devoting more time to selling fuel within the country, ”said Stanislav Mitrakhovich, an expert at the National Energy Security Fund, to RT.

As a result of a surplus in the Russian market, the wholesale price of AI-92 gasoline has dropped by almost 12% since the beginning of the year, to 43.4 thousand rubles per ton, while AI-95 fuel has fallen in price by more than 9%, to 46.7 thousand rubles. rubles per ton, according to the St. Petersburg International Commodity Exchange.

“In September, wholesale gasoline prices in Russia continued to decline slightly, as demand for fuel in the country fell sharply.

The fact is that with the end of summer, the high season also ended, when the period of holidays and agricultural work stimulated active purchases of fuel, ”Artyom Deev, head of the AMarkets analytical department, explained to RT.

According to experts, the so-called damper also has a positive impact on the cost of gasoline in retail.

Under this mechanism, the state reimburses oil companies for lost revenues from fuel supplies to the domestic market.

So, if the prices for fuel inside the country are lower than export prices, the oilmen receive compensation from the budget.

At higher prices in the domestic market, companies, on the contrary, deduct part of their profits to the treasury.

This avoids sharp jumps in the cost of fuel for consumers.

Meanwhile, since September 2022, the damper in Russia began to temporarily work according to an updated formula.

Now the mechanism takes into account the size of the discount with which companies continue to export oil, in particular to friendly countries.

As a result, the amount of compensation to oil workers from the budget will be cut, which will save the treasury about 100 billion rubles.

This assessment was given at the end of June by Deputy Finance Minister Alexei Sazanov.

“She (damper adjustment. -

) will be valid for only four months, from September to December 2022.

At this stage, the adjustment is made only for 2022, because it is not clear what will happen to the demand for our oil products in 2023, ”Interfax quotes Sazanov.

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According to Stanislav Mitrakhovich, as budgetary compensation decreases, companies may begin to increase the cost of fuel for ordinary consumers.

However, the expert does not expect a serious rise in prices in the foreseeable future.

A similar point of view is shared by Artyom Deev.

“Gas stations will gradually increase prices, but this process will not be abrupt, but smooth and gradual.

In addition, the volume of fuel in the domestic market may now be somewhat reduced, as oil refineries are now leaving for scheduled repairs.

This also plays in favor of higher fuel prices,” Deev explained.

Price framework

Nevertheless, further growth in prices for motor fuel in Russia will continue to remain within the limits of inflation, experts believe.

And in the event of a sharp increase in the cost of gasoline, the authorities may use additional mechanisms to stabilize the situation, Mitrahovich said.

“In previous years, the government managed to keep the cost of fuel within inflationary limits.

Now it is still difficult to predict exactly what inflation will be in the fall and at the end of the year, but the authorities will try not to change traditions and restrain the increase in fuel prices if necessary, ”the expert emphasized.

It should be noted that after the inflation jump in April to a record 17.8%, the growth rate of consumer prices for goods and services has been systematically slowing down in recent months.

As President Vladimir Putin said last week, this dynamic may continue in the near future.

“I think that according to the results of the year (inflation. -

) we will have somewhere around 12%, and, according to many of our experts, in the first quarter - by the second quarter of next year we will most likely reach the targets.

Someone says that 5-6%, and someone says that the level of 4% will be reached.

Let's see.

In any case, the trends in this sense are positive," Putin said.

As Nikolai Pereslavsky, an employee of the Department of Economic and Financial Research at the CMS Institute, suggested in an interview with RT, in the coming months the cost of a liter of AI-95 at Russian gas stations will remain in the range of 52-55 rubles.

At the same time, according to Artyom Deev, AI-92 fuel can rise in price up to 50 rubles per liter, and diesel fuel - up to 60 rubles.