Slack on French growth.

It should decelerate sharply, from 2.6% in 2022 to 0.5% in 2023, before rebounding to 1.8% in 2024, according to macroeconomic projections published Thursday by the Banque de France.

The central bank underlines that the uncertainty is very high and publishes a range of GDP evolution between + 0.8% and - 0.5% for 2023.

It does not exclude a "technical recession" of "two or three quarters of a drop in GDP around winter 2022-23", indicated the director general of the institution, Olivier Garnier, during a conference of hurry.

Whatever the scenario chosen for next year, the Banque de France is more pessimistic than the government, which forecasts 2.7% growth for this year and 1% for next year, counting on the resilience of the French economy.

Recovery planned for 2024

For the central bank, we have “a resilience that is better than expected during most of 2022;

a sharp slowdown from next winter", the extent of which is "surrounded by very large uncertainties" and finally "a resumption of economic expansion in 2024".

This uncertainty also affects the level of inflation which, after having reached 5.8% this year, will evolve next year in a range between 4.2% and 6.9%, then fall back to 2.7% in 2024. “Even if the war [in Ukraine] were unfortunately to continue, energy prices will inevitably end up stabilizing or even falling,” said

the governor of the Banque de France, François Villeroy de Galhau , in the daily

La Croix .

Decline in purchasing power

To measure inflation, the Banque de France uses the harmonized consumer price index (HICP), which allows comparison between European countries and gives more importance to energy prices than the consumer price index. consumption (CPI) used by INSEE and the French government.

In August over one year, the CPI rose by 5.9% and the HICP by 6.6%, INSEE reported on Thursday.

The high level of inflation weighs on the purchasing power of households, which should fall by 0.3% this year, and even by 0.5% if measured per capita.

It should remain stable next year (0.2% and 0.0% per capita) and start rising again in 2024 (+1.6% and 1.4% per capita), according to Banque de France projections. .

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