Reporter Li Qiaoyu
Recently, some media quoted data from aviation industry consulting firm IBA that from April 2020 to July this year, the rent of a new Boeing (BA) 737 Max rose by more than 20% to $316,000 per month.
The Airbus (EADSY) A320neo climbed to $324,000 per month, up more than 14% from April 2020; the larger A321neo, rented for $375,000 per month in July.
"Changes in aircraft leasing prices are determined by the relationship between supply and demand." An industry insider who did not want to be named told the Securities Daily reporter that with the recovery of the global civil aviation market, the shortage of suppliers' spare parts has become a common problem faced by aircraft manufacturers. , affecting the production of new aircraft.
"The overall impact is not felt." When talking about the increase in aircraft leasing prices, a number of listed airlines told the "Securities Daily" reporter.
Aircraft leasing prices increase
The recovery in market demand and problems in the aircraft production supply chain have jointly pushed up aircraft leasing prices.
The recovery of the travel market is an important driving force behind the rise in aircraft leasing prices.
From the perspective of the domestic market, the latest data disclosed by the Civil Aviation Administration shows that in July this year, civil aviation transportation production continued to maintain a recovery trend. The total transportation turnover of the entire industry was 6.80 billion ton-kilometers, an increase of 27.5% month-on-month; passenger transportation scale for three consecutive months It rebounded, and the passenger transport volume was 33.996 million, a month-on-month increase of 54.5%.
According to Qunar data, in July this year, the long-term tourism boom has improved, and hotel bookings in Lijiang, Yantai, Qingdao and other popular tourist cities have exceeded the first half of this year.
From the perspective of the international market, according to the statistics and forecasts of the International Air Transport Association (IATA), the total global passenger traffic will recover to 83% of the level in 2019 in 2022, rise to 94% in 2023, and reach 94% in 2024. 4 billion, which will exceed the pre-pandemic level.
Shrinking supply is also driving up aircraft leasing prices.
In June, Boeing Chief Executive David Calhoun said supply chain problems could continue through the end of 2023 due to labor shortages at suppliers and a faster-than-expected recovery in demand.
Airbus CEO Fury also said recently that the shortage of labor and raw materials poses a major challenge to the company's increase in production capacity.
Talking about the supply chain of aircraft manufacturers, Zhao Xin, CFO of Zhongguancun e-Valley, told the "Securities Daily" reporter that during the epidemic, the global civil aviation industry was hit hard. Temporary closure, which has caused the aircraft manufacturing supply chain to fail to recover in time and meet market demand in the event of a recovery in the industry.
"In the early stage of the epidemic, major companies have adopted strategies of laying off employees, withdrawing aircraft or accelerating the elimination of old aircraft in response to the market changes in which demand has plummeted. The process of market recovery after the epidemic will inevitably be accompanied by a short-term rapid increase in aircraft demand. , the corresponding increase in aircraft leasing prices is an inevitable result.”
Zou Jianjun, a professor at China Civil Aviation Management Institute, told the "Securities Daily" reporter that in the long run, the increase in aircraft leasing prices will not last for too long, and will gradually return with the growth of new aircraft deliveries.
Listed airlines influence geometry
Leasing is an important way for airlines to introduce aircraft.
A reporter from Securities Daily found that Air China will introduce a total of 43 aircraft in 2021, including 4 A350s, 23 A320NEOs, 11 A321NEOs, 4 ARJ21-700s and 1 business jet.
Among them, 29 aircraft were introduced through financial leasing and 14 aircraft were introduced through operating leasing.
According to the announcement disclosed by China Eastern Airlines, as of the end of 2021, the company has a total of 752 passenger aircraft, including 274 financial lease aircraft and 217 operating lease aircraft.
As of the end of 2021, China Southern Airlines has a total of 878 passenger and freighter aircraft; of which 255 are finance leased aircraft and 306 are operating leased aircraft.
According to various interviews with reporters, the increase in rental prices of some aircraft models has not affected the overall performance of listed airlines.
A listed airline practitioner who did not want to be named told the "Securities Daily" reporter that aircraft rental mainly depends on the economy of the model itself and the number of aircraft sources in the market. There will be price increases under limited circumstances, but the price fluctuations of some models will not affect the overall cost of listed airlines.
"The increase in aircraft leasing prices reflects the full recovery of the foreign civil aviation market. The strong demand of airlines for capacity growth is a direct reflection of the change in the relationship between supply and demand." Gao Peng, a practitioner in the civil aviation industry, told the "Securities Daily" reporter.
Gao Peng believes that although some models of aircraft leasing costs have been adjusted, the increase in air ticket prices can make up for the space for aircraft leasing prices to rise.
On the whole, the increase in the rental price of some aircraft models may lead to a slight increase in the rental fee in the financial report data of listed airlines, but on the whole, it has no adverse effect on the company's performance.
(Securities Daily)