Our reporter Wang Ning
Recently, the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) the main natural gas contract in September hit a new high, causing the market to worry about the international natural gas supply crisis.
Several analysts told the "Securities Daily" reporter that the rise in international natural gas prices was due to the imbalance between supply and demand, and the current supply side was once blocked. With the continuous push from the demand side, the international natural gas futures price hit a record high; at the same time, the pressure on international natural gas supply and demand was inevitable. It will be transmitted to the Asian market, and Chinese companies should speed up their preparations, such as signing long-term and short-term portfolio agreements as much as possible, and making good use of derivatives tools to avoid cost-side risks.
The main contract remains high and volatile
As a leading energy commodity as important as crude oil, the volatility of natural gas prices is also a barometer of the market.
Recently, the main U.S. natural gas futures contract in September hit a record high, reaching $9.677/million British thermal.
As of the press release in Asian time on August 22, the contract closed at $9.539/million British thermal, an increase of 2.79%.
Many analysts believe that the main reason for the recent rise in international natural gas futures prices is the imbalance between supply and demand, especially the unexpected decline in the supply side, which directly led to a sharp rise in futures prices.
Jin Xiao, chief energy analyst of the Orient Securities Derivatives Research Institute, told the Securities Daily reporter that the core contradiction in the international natural gas market is that European imports continue to rise, which cannot effectively hedge against the decline in Russian pipeline natural gas supply.
"Preliminary estimates show that the natural gas supply gap in the European market this winter may be around 30 billion cubic meters. If we want to achieve a balance between supply and demand, we can only squeeze out demand through further price increases. However, 40% of the natural gas demand structure in the European market is Residential and commercial gas, this part of demand is relatively less sensitive to price, and more passively accepted.”
Wang Ying, a researcher at the investment consulting department of China Derivatives Futures, also told reporters that on the one hand, Russia's natural gas supply to the European market has declined, causing a crisis in European energy supply; of anxiety.
"Currently, the European market is also facing the difficulty of replenishing storage, and extreme weather is expected to intensify the demand for gas and electricity."
It is worth mentioning that, for a long time, international oil prices and natural gas prices have been complementary to each other. However, in the context of the surge in natural gas futures prices, the trend of international oil prices unexpectedly deviates. As of press time, the price of WIT crude oil has fallen below 90 US dollars / bucket.
Li Zhenyu, a researcher at Dayou Futures Investment Research Center, told the "Securities Daily" reporter that the current international oil and gas prices are deviating from the trend, mainly due to the Federal Reserve's accelerated monetary policy tightening and the expected impact of downside risks in the global economy, which will drag down oil prices, but natural gas Due to the strong support on the demand side, the price once soared.
Pressure will be transmitted to Asian markets
Many experts believe that higher natural gas prices in the European and American markets will increase the pressure on the cost side, which will soon be transmitted to the Asian market.
"The shortage of natural gas supply in the European and American markets will naturally transmit the pressure to the Asian market, mainly through the LNG (liquefied natural gas) trade flow to adjust." In Jin Xiao's view, the European and American markets will push LNG to a higher premium, and the trade flow will increase. The adjustment will eventually make the price trend of the Asian and European markets more consistent. Although there will be a price difference, the final cost-side pressure mainly depends on the degree of its own supply and demand gap.
Talking about how the natural gas futures price will be interpreted, many analysts believe that the price is still easy to rise and hard to fall.
"Although the current U.S. natural gas has accelerated the replenishment rate, it is still not optimistic based on the expectation of the subsequent extreme weather and the actual situation on the residential and commercial demand side." Wang Ying said that at the same time, the natural gas futures price will rise this time. Provide some support for oil prices.
Jin Xiao also believes that although natural gas futures prices have reached new highs, they may continue to rise in the future.
"European natural gas inventories are at a normal level, but the market is worried that the Russian gas supply level will continue to be low, resulting in a far shortage of inventories in the European market. In the past, the supply and demand balance in the European heating season was based on the supply side maintaining a high level, but at present There has been an imbalance between supply and demand.”
It is worth noting that while the pressure is bound to be transmitted to the Asian market, the cost of imported natural gas in China will also rise.
Talking about how Chinese companies deal with the cost-side risks caused by rising prices, Jin Xiao told reporters, "Long-term agreements adopted by imported natural gas companies are generally linked to Brent crude oil contracts, and the impact on such trade will be relatively limited, especially in the near future. In the context of falling oil prices, importers have limited response to short-term increases in long-term agreements in order to reduce spot risk exposure. Therefore, importers are advised to find corresponding derivative instruments to avoid price risks."
"Higher international natural gas prices will lead to an increase in my country's natural gas import prices. At the same time, Europe's intensified search for natural gas supplies will also lead to increased trade volumes and aggravate the shortage of shipping vessels, which will affect domestic imports at that time." Li Zhenyu said that Chinese companies should reasonably match long-term The ratio of the agreement to the spot volume, try to sign a combination contract to prevent the risk of short-term price fluctuations.
(Securities Daily)