China News Service, Beijing, July 20 (Reporter Wang Enbo) Since the beginning of this year, international energy and food prices have risen sharply, and the "high fever" of inflation has plagued the global economy, especially in major economies such as the United States and Europe. The inflation rate has soared.
In the second half of the year, will this phenomenon "infect" China?
In June, the U.S. consumer price index (CPI) rose by 9.1% year-on-year, the highest in nearly 41 years; the euro zone CPI increased by 8.6% year-on-year, continuing to hit a new record high.
In stark contrast, China's CPI rose by 2.5% year-on-year in June, and an average increase of 1.7% in the first half of the year, significantly lower than that of other major economies.
Analysis believes that the degree of policy relaxation is an important reason for China's price stability.
Since the beginning of this year, China has continued to strengthen the construction of the production, supply, storage and marketing system for important commodities such as grain and coal, and coped with the uncertainty of the external environment with the certainty of domestic supply and stable prices.
Taking grain and other important livelihood commodities as an example, Wan Jinsong, director of the Price Department of the National Development and Reform Commission, said that China is making every effort to stabilize grain production, strengthen regulation and stabilize pig production capacity, and strengthen the connection between vegetable production and sales.
Since the Ukrainian crisis, food prices in China have risen by an average of about 1.4%, far lower than the 7.5% to 9.5% rise in the United States and Europe.
In terms of energy, China has also continued to increase coal production and supply, improve the coal market price formation mechanism, guide coal prices to operate within a reasonable range, and stabilize electricity prices, energy costs, and residential electricity and gas prices by stabilizing coal prices. Always remain basically stable.
The sharp rise in electricity and gas prices for residents in major economies such as the United States and Europe has not been staged in China.
While intensifying efforts to ensure supply and price stability, China has chosen a more scientific and prudent policy orientation in macro-control, refraining from "flooding"-style strong stimulus to effectively curb the divergence of inflation expectations.
Jerome Haegeli, chief economist of Swiss Re Group, said in an interview with a reporter from China News Agency that in recent years, major economies such as the United States and Europe have introduced a series of very strong monetary and fiscal stimulus policies, leading to overheating of the economy.
China is relatively restrained in terms of stimulus policies, leaving room for adjustment when necessary in the future. In addition, the recovery trend of China's economy has been clarified, and the overall inflation risk is controllable.
In the first half of the year, China's prices were generally stable. However, affected by multiple factors such as high international inflation, the Ukrainian crisis, and repeated epidemics, there are still many uncertain and unstable factors in the price operation in the second half of the year.
Not only are international energy and food prices fluctuating at a high level, but imported inflationary pressures still exist. With the start of a new round of pig cycles, the re-rising of pork prices will also bring a certain impetus to the CPI.
Regarding the price trend in the second half of the year, Wan Jinsong emphasized that the supply capacity of China's commodity and service market is generally sufficient, the high-quality coal production capacity continues to be released, the grain production has achieved "eighteen consecutive harvests", this summer's wheat harvest has high yield and good quality, and the production capacity of live pigs is generally reasonable and sufficient. In the near future, the stock of breeding sows is still further increasing, the production of cattle, sheep, poultry, eggs, vegetables and fruits is normal, the supply is sufficient, and there is a solid material basis for ensuring supply and stable prices.
Guo Liyan, director of the Comprehensive Situation Research Office of the China Academy of Macroeconomics, also pointed out that China has accumulated a complete set of mechanisms to ensure the supply and price stability of key livelihood commodities, and the entire chain of production, supply, storage and sales to deal with emergencies. Has been relatively complete.
This is the confidence and confidence that China can stabilize prices in the first half of the year and continue to stabilize prices in the second half.
Guo Liyan also mentioned that China has done a lot of work in coordinating epidemic prevention and control, economic and social development, and responding to the impact. At present, the resumption of production and production of industrial chains and supply chains in key regions is progressing steadily.
Since the outbreak of the epidemic, especially last year and this year, the overall relationship between domestic supply and demand has been relatively stable, and there has not been a similar mismatch between supply and demand in the international market, which is a prerequisite for stabilizing prices.
In Anrenli's view, the integrity of China's industrial supply chain far exceeds that of other emerging economies in the world, which will help China to be less exposed to global systemic supply chain risks.
The Swiss Re Institute of Swiss Re believes that the growth rate of consumer prices in China will be within the expected target of "about 3%" for the whole year of this year, which is significantly lower than that of the United States and the euro area.
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