Joachim Rukwied is an unexcited man.

The farmer and president of the German Farmers' Association is not actually known for big drumbeats, he is rather a lobbyist as he is in the picture book: always a friendly functionary smile and a well-considered saying on his lips.

It was all the more astonishing what he recently said in an interview with the “Redaktionsnetzwerk Deutschland” and now confirmed in a conversation with the FAZ: “I see the supply secured until spring 2023.

For the period after that, I dare not make any predictions.”

Jessica von Blazekovic

Editor in Business.

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This sentence makes you sit up and take notice, as it confirms the fears of many consumers in view of the numerous negative messages currently coming from the food sector: traffic jams on the oceans, war between the important growing regions Russia and Ukraine, export embargo for a large part of Indonesian palm oil production.

Farmer President Rukwied sees the real threat to the food system elsewhere: is there enough gas available in spring to run the energy-intensive production of food?

"And the crucial question is: Do we have enough fertilizer to get the harvest going for 2023?" The agricultural official doubts that.

"I don't mean to create panic, and it's looking into a crystal ball.

But we now have to take appropriate precautions so that the supply is secured,” said Rukwied.

The Farmers' Association is calling for the establishment of a national fertilizer reserve similar to the gas reserve.

There is also sympathy for the proposal in the Union and in the agricultural industry.

In fact, the situation on the fertilizer market is tense.

Record prices are currently being paid for all components of mineral fertilizers, whether ammonia, calcium ammonium nitrate, urea or phosphorus. In some cases, they cost three to five times as much as last year.

The higher price of natural gas had already made fertilizers more expensive in 2021.

This accounts for about 80 percent of the cost of producing nitrogen fertilizer.

The situation has now worsened as a result of the war in Ukraine and sanctions against the world's largest nitrogen exporter, Russia.

Fertilizer needed for self-sufficiency

"The war completely derailed the entire market," says Wienke von Schenck from the Agrarmarkt-Informations-Gesellschaft (AMI).

In view of the high costs, some fertilizer manufacturers have cut back production, and some have reduced or canceled deliveries entirely, citing "force majeure".

Von Schenck can understand the farmers' desire for government support.

“To secure the supply, it is important to secure the equipment.

When they're gone, we'll look stupid."

In other words: The best agriculture is useless if the means to develop its potential are not available.

Accordingly, the “degree of self-sufficiency”, to which the Federal Ministry of Agriculture refers when asked by the FAZ, is not very meaningful: “The supply of food is guaranteed in Germany, even beyond spring 2023.

One of the reasons for this is Germany's high degree of self-sufficiency for many products.” The degree of self-sufficiency indicates what percentage of the required agricultural products are produced in the country.

For many basic foods, the value in Germany is more than 100 percent, such as potatoes, sugar, meat, milk and cereals.