The first good news for consumers could now be regarding price developments: unlike in previous months, inflation does not seem to rise any more in December at least.

The Federal Statistical Office is on vacation and is still silent.

Unlike in other months, it does not want to present its first estimate for the inflation rate for December until January.

However, a small survey by the FAZ among economists shows that, based on the data on December price developments so far, observers largely do not expect the inflation rate to rise any further.

The uncertainty is still great.

In December, however, oil and gasoline in particular became significantly cheaper on average than in November - that seems to have brought some relief.

Christian Siedenbiedel

Editor in business.

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Depending on which inflation rate you are looking at, the forecasts are somewhat different. Commerzbank expects the inflation rate for the euro area to have fallen from 4.9 percent in November to 4.5 percent in December. For Germany, she expects the inflation rate to stagnate at 5.2 percent according to the national calculation method of the consumer price index (CPI). "Energy prices fell in December - but the rise in producer prices at company level accelerated to 19.2 percent in November, and retailers are likely to have passed this price surge on to their customers in December," says Jörg Krämer, chief economist at Commerzbank . Commerzbank does not issue a forecast for the European method of calculating the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP);here, however, the Bundesbank believes a decline in the rate in December is possible. She refers to the statistical effects of package tours: Due to a corona-related premature adjustment of the weightings of the various goods and services in the HICP index, they are weighted much less heavily than a year ago - so the seasonal price increase in December should be less significant.

Crude oil, heating oil and gasoline cheaper

For Germany, the chances are good that the reported inflation rate fell slightly in December, says Holger Schmieding, chief economist at the Berenberg bank.

However, there is great uncertainty.

Oil has become cheaper, but natural gas is more expensive for consumers.

Karsten Junius from Bankhaus Sarasin and Michael Heise from the fund company HQ Trust made similar statements.

The latter assumes 5.1 percent inflation in December.

The oil price had fallen - due to new corona worries and the reluctance of the oil states to produce - from more than 85 dollars at times in November to a good 76 dollars per barrel (around 159 liters) for the North Sea Brent.

This also had an impact on consumers: heating oil became cheaper in December compared to the previous month, as reported by the Internet portal Heizoel24, which 500 dealers report to.

"In the first half of November in particular, an average of 88 cents per liter was still recorded - in December the price fell to 81 cents per liter," said Oliver Klapschus from Heizoel24.