Reference News Network reported on September 10 that Russian media said that the international rating agency Fitch adjusted the world economic forecast and believed that by 2021, the overall global growth would basically repair the decline caused by the new crown epidemic.

However, despite the rapid economic recovery from the crisis and the overall improvement in world economic indicators, the gross domestic product (GDP) of the United States and Russia will not be able to completely overcome the consequences of the economic recession next year-only hope China now.

In view of the situation in the second quarter of this year, Fitch also lowered its expectations for the economies of Europe and some developing countries.

　　According to a report by the Russian "Kommersant" on September 9, according to Fitch's updated forecast, the global economy will decline by 4.4% this year, slightly better than the 4.6% contraction predicted in June.

Fitch pointed out: “After experiencing record declines in March and April, the economic recovery has been faster than expected, but it has started to slow down in the near future.” Fitch’s analysts now predict that by 2021, global growth will be At 5.2%, this means that by the end of next year, the decline caused by the new crown epidemic will basically be compensated.

However, before the end of next year, the U.S. economy will not be able to recover to its pre-crisis level; Europe will not be able to recover to its pre-crisis level until the end of 2022 (and this is still on the premise that no new national quarantine measures will be taken. ).

　　According to the report, at the same time, Fitch’s forecast for the U.S. economy this year has shrunk from 5.6% to 4.6% (expected to grow by 4% next year), while its forecast for China’s economic growth this year has increased from 1.2% to 2.7%. (The economy is expected to accelerate 7.7% next year).

In the second quarter of this year, China's economy grew by 3.2%.

When it comes to Russia, expectations are also slightly better-thanks to the expansion of domestic demand and financial support to boost employment (estimated funding is equivalent to about 3.5% of GDP), the economy has shrunk from 5.8% to 4.9%.

The rebound in oil prices also contributes to the improvement of Russian forecasts.

The forecast value of oil prices for the whole year of this year has risen from 35 US dollars per barrel (1 US dollar equals to 6.83 yuan-this net note) to 41 US dollars.

However, the long-term forecast for oil prices has been slightly lowered, from $55 per barrel to $53 (the forecast for 2022 is reduced from $53 per barrel to $50).

　　The report pointed out that Russia’s GDP will not return to the level of the end of 2019 until early 2022. At the same time, trade will show negative growth from 2021 to 2022: exports will be restricted due to the "OPEC+" agreement, and imports will follow. The ruble appreciates and increases (the average exchange rate is 72 rubles for one dollar this year and 70 rubles for one dollar next year).

　　Fitch believes that global central banks will continue to cut interest rates further.

　　According to the report, Fitch’s adjusted forecast does not mean that all is up: the euro zone’s economic forecast has fallen from a contraction of 8% to a contraction of 9% (the decline in the second quarter was even greater, with a contraction of 12.1%), and the UK’s economic forecast A shrinkage of 9% fell to 11.5% (expected to grow by 5.5% in 2021).

Consumption in France and the United Kingdom has now exceeded the level of February, but Europe is facing the consequences of rising unemployment (with the cancellation of the employment stimulus plan). Companies are cutting capital expenditures, which account for 8% to 10% of GDP in the United States and Europe. % Of the transportation and tourism industries are still in severe depression.

　　At the same time, Fitch estimates that the EU and the UK will switch to the terms of trade within the WTO framework early next year.

　　The report pointed out that for the economies of developing countries other than China this year, Fitch also lowered its forecast from a 4.7% contraction to a contraction of 5.7% (this is firstly because the forecast value of India has fallen sharply from a contraction of 5% to a contraction of 10.5%. ).

According to data in the second quarter, global GDP fell by 8.9%, while many countries experienced a decline of more than 20% (for example, India, the United Kingdom, and Spain).

Fitch believes that the global economy will fall by about 10% in the first half of 2020.