Business will clearly not be good, but the time has not yet come for widespread catastrophe. A survey unveiled this Thursday morning by BPI France indicates that French SMEs expect on average a 15% drop in their turnover this year, because of the economic crisis linked to the coronavirus.
Nearly half (47%) of the 5,556 business leaders surveyed between mid-May and mid-June indicate that the drop in their activity is due to “the regulatory closure of establishments”, while 29% cite the difficulties “to produce with the same efficiency "because of the sanitary measures and 20% the" lack of outlets "or" a reduced supply ", reports the public bank.
Cash that holds up for the moment
The leaders "are significantly revising their outlook on the workforce", but the balance of opinion on employment remains "higher than the low point recorded during the financial crisis of 2008-2009", according to the results of the survey. The impact on employment remains "relatively limited, in proportion to the decline in activity" thanks to the measures put in place by the government, in particular partial unemployment.
Positive point (for the moment): almost half of SMEs consider their cash flow "sufficient" to face the crisis, while 39% believe that the difficulties encountered are "surmountable in view of the support measures requested". Half (51%) of SMEs have used the State Guaranteed Loan (PGE) and 59% of those that have taken out an EMP still retain most of the loan as a cash reserve that can be mobilized for the coming months, according to the report. 'investigation. “Given the magnitude of the shock, the cash flow situation is surprisingly good,” said Philippe Mutricy, research director of Bpifrance, quoted in the press release.
The peak behind us?
Regarding investment, 41% of companies that had projects before the crisis intend to maintain them and also 41% postpone them, while the others will cancel them. “The opening of capital is only considered at this stage by a minority of SMEs”, notes the public bank, even though “the level of equity represents a strong constraint to tackle the recovery for 17% of SMEs, and for 39% a moderate constraint ”.
"The results of our survey of 5,500 SMEs show that the recovery of activity is well underway, even if it will be gradual", summarizes Philippe Mutricy, according to which "the renewed confidence of SMEs (...) gives hope that the peak of the crisis is now behind us ”.
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