- From June, the government will review the rules of partial unemployment.
- Apart from certain sectors, the State will no longer compensate 100% of the cost for businesses.
- The debate relates to the economic risk of the reduction - or the conservation - of a generous partial unemployment.
The government is convinced of this: the unprecedented system of partial unemployment, put in place at the time of the coronavirus crisis, made it possible to avoid an explosion in unemployment. "We sheltered the French when the wind was blowing hard (...) to avoid the waves of layoffs," said Labor Minister Muriel Pénicaud at the end of April on France Inter.
In early May, 11.7 million employees * were affected by the scheme. This represents more than one employee in two in the private sector. But a lot could change next month.
A "remainder of expenses" for companies
For the time being, the State is in fact compensating 100% of the amounts paid by companies for short-time working, up to a limit of 4.5 times the minimum wage per employee concerned (around 6,900 euros gross monthly). A significant effort for public finances, since the estimated cost of the measure amounts to 25 billion euros. It is in this context that Muriel Pénicaud explained on Monday that the state was going to be less generous with companies using short-time working.
From June 1, "all sectors that cannot operate by administrative decision" such as hotels and catering, events or culture will continue to benefit from partial unemployment fully supported by the State. For the others, an additional financial effort will have to be made. Companies will have to assume "a small part" of the cost of short-time working, said the Minister of Labor, ensuring that discussions were underway to define this "remaining dependent".
"Encourage" to return to work?
The stake is not small. By making partial unemployment less attractive, the government seeks to avoid the phenomenon of “stowaways”. Some companies have in fact been able to take advantage of the generous conditions offered by the State to save part of their wages… while asking employees to work full time. “There may have been windfall effects, recognizes Bruno Ducoudré, economist at the OFCE. But given the economic shock, this effect is rather limited. ”
The government also wants to anticipate economic recovery. In this, it is in line with the tribune signed by Pierre Cahuc and Stéphane Carcillo in Le Monde . The two economics professors say that partial unemployment “excessively generous can considerably slow down the resumption of work (…) This would worsen the fall in gross domestic product (GDP), with the key the disappearance of many very small companies (VSEs) ) and SMEs, despite other state aid. Unemployment would then rise sharply and sustainably, which would have dramatic consequences on health and mortality. In other words, the two authors believe that partial unemployment, if it were not reformed, would end up causing exactly the opposite of what it was created for.
"No one is unemployed for pleasure"
The argument is disputed. "When it has orders, a company has no interest in maintaining short-time working, notes Bruno Ducoudré. On the contrary, it must leave very quickly, fill the boxes after a period of stoppage, and therefore it needs its employees 100%. To think that partial unemployment is a trap for inactivity is a little bit wrong. ”
"No one is partially unemployed for pleasure, said Wednesday morning Olivier Faure, first secretary of the PS. Let’s be careful not to create precarious situations that would endanger many families in France ”. Even the employers are careful. Geoffroy Roux de Bézieux, President of Medef, recognized at the end of April that "this trajectory [the reduction of partial unemployment] worries us a lot, because we must not be mistaken, on June 2, there will not be 100% turnover. There is no demand or not enough demand, the French, legitimately enough, are worried about their jobs, so they will not or will not consume enough ”. Little consumption, this means production that is difficult to sell. So a less profitable business, and whose costs would be further increased by the progressive "disengagement" of the state from the partial unemployment scheme.
Finding the right balance
"The government has launched massive partial unemployment to alleviate the health emergency linked to confinement," recalls François Hommeril, president of the CFE-CGC. Now that this risk has been replaced by economic urgency, he believes that it can "harden" the conditions of access to this system and that it is up to companies to take a little responsibility by setting up the conditions for recovery. of activity. This position is logical and consistent. However, resources will still be needed to support businesses in economic difficulty ”.
The executive must therefore find the right balance between a good anticipation of the economic recovery which would justify a reduction in partial unemployment and the protection of employment and employees' incomes.
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* As the OFCE points out in a note, “the figures reported by Dares (the service of the Ministry of Labor) relate to requests for authorization and not hours (and employees) actually declared as part-time workers. They therefore constitute a potential maximum and not an actual number of employees on short-time working ”.
- Coronavirus
- Economy
- Unemployment
- Confinement
- Job