The market value has reached a new high, surpassing Coca-Cola to become the world's first, can Maotai's share price continue to "fly"?

　　1 Moutai = 4.8 Gree

　　= 9.6 BYD = 12 BOE

On April 17, the exterior of Maotai Building of Guizhou Maotai Group in Beijing. China News Service reporter Hou Yushe

　　It is said that there are two types of stocks on the A-share market, one is called Guizhou Maotai, and the other is called other stocks.

　　People's enthusiasm for Maotai stocks seems to be catching up with Moutai itself. On the trading day that just ended, Maotai's stock price soared 3.71%, and the price per share reached an astonishing 1244.5 yuan, making it the first high-priced A-share.

　　This price also pushed Maotai's market value to a new high, reaching 1.56 trillion yuan, surpassing the Coca-Cola Company and becoming the first company in the global food and beverage market value industry.

　　Based on the closing price on the 22nd, the market value of Moutai = 4.8 Gree (326.1 billion yuan in market value) = 9.6 BYD (162.1 billion yuan) = 12 BOE A (132.6 billion yuan).

Last year, I earned 110 million yuan and paid 20 billion dividends.

　　On the evening of April 21, Guizhou Moutai released its 2019 annual report. Guizhou Moutai achieved a total operating income of 88.854 billion yuan, an increase of 15.10% year-on-year; realized a net profit of 41.206 billion yuan, an increase of 17.05% year-on-year A net profit of 110 million yuan per day.

　　In addition, Maotai, Guizhou, announced a bonus plan for "trenching". The plan shows that based on the total share capital of 1.256 billion shares at the end of 2019, a cash dividend of 170.25 yuan (including tax) will be distributed to all shareholders of the company for every 10 shares, and a total of 21.387 billion yuan of profit will be distributed.

　　In response, Xue Yuhu, an analyst at Founder Securities, said that the indicators of Maotai in 2019 are very beautiful. The intensive period of intensive adjustments of the company is over, and the operation and management are returning to a stable and positive trend. Moutai began to adjust its channels in 2018, reducing dealers. The annual report shows that in addition to the series of liquor distributors in 2019, more than 120 domestic distributors in Maotai have been cleaned up and eliminated, which is almost at the end.

　　At the same time, we will increase direct sales and direct supply terminals. In 2020, we will continue to substantially increase the quota of direct stores and the supply of direct sales channels in the province. We will also cooperate with e-commerce represented by Tmall, Suning, JD.com, Wumart, China Resources Vanguard, and Yonghui Supermarket. Signed a direct supply agreement for the representative supermarket channel to sell 1499 yuan worth of Maotai, expanding the Maotai consumer group, consolidating and strengthening the company's brand image and market position.

　　Xue Yuhu further pointed out that in March Maotai successfully changed coaches, Gao Weidong succeeded Li Baofang as chairman of the company. The executive team team that lasted nearly three years was successfully completed, and the company entered a stable development stage again, starting a new round of journey.

Several institutions raise Maotai stock price expectations

　　In the face of the annual performance handed over by Maotai, many research institutions have taken a positive attitude.

　　CICC said that Guizhou Moutai's net profit in 2019 slightly exceeded expectations, mainly due to higher than expected average price increases, while taking into account the company's product structure upgrade and direct sales ratio continued to increase, this year and next year's profit forecast is raised. Raise the target price of Guizhou Moutai to 1407 yuan.

　　GF Securities said that the increase in price and volume of Maotai promoted steady growth in revenue. The impact of the new coronary pneumonia epidemic on the company was only at the level of the price. The target of Maotai ’s total revenue increase of 10% in 2020 is expected to be exceeded. Will speed up. Raise the target price of Maotai in Guizhou to 1506 yuan.

　　CITIC Securities said that the Maotai wine expansion project is expected to support a compound growth rate of 6-7% in the next 5 years.

　　Although the consumption of Maotai is connected with the economic boom, the company is showing more stability against cyclical fluctuations due to its strong brand power and scarcity, and the reasonable dynamic PE valuation range of stock prices is expected to stabilize at 30-40 times. Raise Moutai's one-year target price to 1500 yuan.

High-end liquor will usher in a new spring?

　　Due to the impact of the epidemic, many domestic industries are still "wintering", but some analysts pointed out that the rising share price of Maotai may be a precursor to the new spring of the entire high-end liquor industry.

　　Xue Yuhu said that this year, liquor is no longer a national restrictive industry, and local governments have begun to focus on promoting investment in liquor industry projects to promote industry development. Following the announcement of the Anhui Provincial Liquor Industry Promotion Policy, on April 13, the Sichuan Provincial Department of Economics and Information released the notice of "Key Tasks for High-Quality Liquor Industry in 2020". The liquor industry is a large taxpayer, and regional liquor enterprises with a brand and channel base will get better development with policy support.

　　There are also institutions linking the “new infrastructure” to the liquor industry.

　　Chuancai Securities analyst Ouyang Yujian, after reviewing the impact of the "Four Trillion" plan on the liquor industry, found that the liquor industry's fundamentals recovered in the first half of the year after the implementation of the "Four Trillion" plan; The industry recovers; and the stock price rebounded before the fundamentals.

　　Ouyang Yujian said that the "four trillion" plan and the "new infrastructure" are quite different in many aspects, such as the macro background, policy focus, duration of action, and strength of action. Considering that the policy has a time lag from landing to communication to the enterprise side , And this round of policy is less stimulating than the "Four Trillion" plan. It is expected that high-end wine will receive the first positive feedback from the policy in the second half of this year. Although the overall effect is expected to be less than the "Four Trillion" plan, the period of action will be Up to several years. It is expected that the "new infrastructure" investment in 2020 will bring at least about 4 billion yuan to 5 billion yuan of business and government affairs consumption income for high-end wine.

　　Overall, the "new infrastructure" will drive the further development of high-end liquor represented by Yi Maotai.

　　At present, various institutions are almost unanimously optimistic about Maotai's future stock price trend, the market is difficult to find a bearish voice, but investors still need to be vigilant, after all, the stock market is risky, and you need to be cautious when entering the market.

　　Author: Chen Kangliang