China News Service Client, Beijing, April 22 (Zhang Xu) Under the dual pressure of low demand and high inventory, WTI crude oil futures May contract hit a negative value. How will the future oil price go? How does it affect China? Is it not costly for consumers to cheer?
-Will the WTI crude oil futures June contract reappear negative?
On the 20th, international oil prices plummeted, and the May WTI crude oil futures contract on May 21 fell sharply by more than 300% to -37.63 USD per barrel, setting a record for the first time in history.
Li Yunxu, a senior researcher at the SDIC Futures Research Institute, told reporters that the duration of the deterioration in demand is the most critical factor in determining the spot trend of the WTI period.
"For the June contract, Cushing ’s high inventory situation in the United States is difficult to alleviate in the short term, but under the neutral estimate of the US marginal improvement in demand in May, low oil prices forced the core production regions to reduce production, and the marginal improvement in demand led to refining The recovery of the plant's construction is expected to increase the spot prices in the production and consumption areas, and the power of crude oil to Cushing will also be weakened. The probability of negative oil prices again is low. "
Li Yunxu reminded that, overall, the structure of crude oil from low to high is difficult to change, and the risk of WTI contracts in recent months is always high when the demand risk is not lifted.
Bank of America Merrill Lynch predicts that it will take several weeks for US crude oil to reach equilibrium again. If demand cannot recover, it is expected that the price of WTI crude oil futures contracts in June will turn negative.
In Taiyuan, Shanxi, the gas station staff is refueling the vehicle. Zhang Yunshe
How does the oil price plunge affect China?
——Petrochemical twins and three major lines were disturbed and made sounds one after another
China's external dependence on crude oil is about 70%. What impact will the collapse of international oil prices have on the domestic market? Recently, PetroChina Shuangxiong, Bank of China, China Construction Bank, Industrial and Commercial Bank, etc. have been alarmed by the changes in the crude oil market.
On April 20, the Party Group of China National Petroleum Corporation held a meeting and pointed out that the low oil price made the company big but not strong. We must focus on the "two benefits and three rates" index system, respond flexibly in management, and strive to minimize the impact of the epidemic situation and oil prices.
On the same day, the Sinopec Party Group held a meeting and pointed out that it took unconventional measures to strictly control non-productive expenditures and significantly reduce operating costs. Adhere to cash as the king, strictly control the growth of interest-bearing debt, and strengthen the control of financial derivatives business.
On April 21, CCB issued a risk warning, recommending investors to pay full attention to the recent risk of crude oil market price fluctuations and reasonably control positions. The Industrial and Commercial Bank of China also issued an announcement saying that the international crude oil products of our bank account will be transferred on April 23, and the Brent crude oil contract for the product reference will be adjusted from June to July after the trading on the same day.
On April 22, Bank of China issued an announcement.
After the trading suspension on the 21st, on April 22, the Bank of China stated that the WTI crude oil May futures contract CME official settlement price-37.63 US dollars / barrel is the effective price, the US crude oil contract of our crude oil products will refer to the CME official Settlement price or settlement. In view of the current market risk and delivery risk, the new open trading of customers Crude Oil (including American Oil and British Oil) will be suspended from April 22, and the closed positions of customers holding positions will not be affected.
——The price discount of domestic gas stations is expected to increase
Some people think that if the price of US crude oil is negative, is it possible to refuel domestically for free? This is misunderstood. The futures price is not a spot price. The negative value of the futures price does not mean that everyone can cheer for you in the future.
Gu Shuangfei, an analyst at South China Futures Energy, said that the negative value of the May delivery price of WTI crude oil is mainly localized in the United States. The impact of WTI crude oil price fluctuations on domestic crude oil is still very small. The target of domestic crude oil anchoring is still Brent crude oil is the Middle East crude oil derived from pricing, and the oil products currently traded in China are also dominated by Basra light oil in the Middle East.
According to the product price formation mechanism released by the National Development and Reform Commission in 2016, when the oil price in the international market is less than US $ 40, the maximum retail prices of gasoline and diesel will not decrease. Since the floor price mechanism has been triggered in mid-March, the current price adjustment of refined oil has been stranded twice in a row, in the "5 yuan era".
Although the retail price adjustment of refined oil products has been stranded, in the area where Shandong local refineries are located, many private gas stations are discounted even more, and the price of each liter of gasoline is more than 2 yuan cheaper.
Jin Jingyuan, a senior analyst at Jinlianchuang Energy Department, predicts that in the next two or three months, the discount of the entire gasoline retail will be strengthened, basically radiating to the whole country, and may be mainly private enterprises.
Under the escort of the Qingdao Maritime Department, the super-large tanker "Yuyi" was safely berthed at the Huangdao Terminal of Qingdao Port. Photo by Ma Guishan
——China can take the opportunity to increase its crude oil strategic reserves
In the eyes of many analysts, low oil prices will compress profits in industries such as oil and gas extraction, fuel processing, and chemical production. "But the plunge in international oil prices has more benefits than harm for China's development. With the current low oil prices, China is also increasing its strategic reserves of crude oil."
The plunge in oil prices has also greatly reduced the cost of China's petroleum, and the cost of a series of industrial production materials that use petroleum as raw materials will also be reduced, such as ethylene, propylene, synthetic fibers, synthetic rubber, etc., and directly drive down the downstream cost of the industrial chain. The resumption of production is very beneficial.
"Falling oil prices have greatly stimulated the purchase of crude oil from Chinese refineries, which in turn has raised the demand for crude oil." According to industry estimates, for every $ 10 down in oil prices, Chinese companies and residents will save 107 billion yuan in expenditure.
The reporter noted that the Shanghai International Energy Exchange, a subsidiary of the Shanghai Futures Exchange, issued an announcement on the 21st, agreeing to PetroChina Fuel Oil Co., Ltd.'s crude oil futures located in Zhanjiang Port, Zhanqiao Port, No. 1, Youyi Road, Xiashan District, Zhanjiang, Guangdong The storage capacity of the designated delivery warehouse will be increased from 400,000 cubic meters to 500,000 cubic meters, and the approved storage capacity will be implemented according to 700,000 cubic meters.
"China is a country with a large demand for crude oil, and it is necessary to increase its strong oil storage capacity near the delivery sites of futures exchanges around the world to ensure China's significant influence on the international crude oil supply chain." Chen Xin, a professor at the Shanghai Institute of Advanced Finance He indicated that it is recommended that after the epidemic period, China should strengthen the acquisition or construction of storage facilities at the international crude oil futures delivery site and shipping port. (Finish)