China-Singapore Jingwei client, April 15 (Zhang Meng) The first step of the central bank ’s third RRR cut in the year took effect today (15th).

Data map. China-Singapore latitude and longitude photo

For the third time in the year, the RRR cut in two steps

On April 3, the central bank announced a targeted reduction of the deposit reserve ratio by 1 percentage point for rural credit cooperatives, rural commercial banks, rural cooperative banks, rural banks, and urban commercial banks operating only in provincial administrative regions. On April 15, It was put into place twice in May 15th, with a reduction of 0.5 percentage points each time, and a total of about 400 billion yuan of long-term funds were released.

It is worth noting that the central bank has implemented two RRR cuts this year. In January of this year, the central bank reduced the quota by 0.5 percentage points and released 800 billion yuan. In March this year, the central bank issued a targeted reduction of 550 billion yuan in long-term funds for loans in the inclusive field.

Su Jian, director of the National Economic Research Center of Peking University, told the client of China-Singapore Jingwei that according to the central bank ’s previous announcement, the targeted RRR cut on April 15 could release about 200 billion yuan of long-term funds. The operation targets small and medium-sized banks, which account for The high proportion of commercial banks is an important force that supports the development of enterprises. The current domestic epidemic situation has been clearly controlled. In March, various economic data have recovered with great probability, and business operations are gradually on track. It is expected that the economy will rebound in the second quarter. It is necessary to provide more liquidity support to small and medium-sized banks in advance, increase credit willingness, and promote The real economy is recovering.

Su Jian also said that the two-time liquidation will help reduce one-time liquidity. Too much liquidity will bring greater pressure on market interest rates. It will also help to control the pace of credit issuance and prevent the centralized credit issuance from driving the leverage rate to rise too fast. .

Guo Xiaobei, a researcher at the China Minsheng Bank Research Institute, pointed out that the targeted RRR cuts can have multiple effects such as credit stability, liquidity stability, cost reduction and risk prevention. This targeted reduction of standards will help to further achieve "precision drip irrigation" for small and medium-sized enterprises, and reflects the policy of supporting small and medium-sized enterprises. It can bring the loan interest rate of small and medium-sized enterprises to a greater extent, and allow them to enjoy better financial services, which is currently extremely precious.

Data map. Photograph by Zhang Meng

How does it affect the property market?

Property market:

In an interview with Sino-Singapore Jingwei client, Zhang Dawei, the chief analyst of Centaline Real Estate, pointed out that now overseas financing of housing companies is limited and they all count on domestic financing. The RRR cut is definitely good for real estate, and a small amount of capital will definitely enter the real estate. But the mainstream is still mainly for the real industry. So the current policy has little effect on real estate. The easing policies in various regions are mainly focused on stabilizing the enterprise, and the RRR cut can only mainly stabilize the enterprise. There are few policies to save the market.

Yan Yuejin, research director of the Think Tank Center of E-House Research Institute, said that the related loan costs will be further reduced. From the perspective of some cities across the country, they have mentioned further reductions in loan costs. To further activate the real estate development and housing trading markets. At the same time, we must prevent illegal funds from entering real estate and form some asset bubbles.

stock market:

Wang Jianhui, the general manager of Beijing Capital Securities R & D Department, believes that under the current situation where liquidity is not tight, the targeted downgrade policy has limited improvement in liquidity expectations. Now that the funds are relatively ample, the central bank has announced the RRR cut and will not have a new impact on the day of landing. For the A-share market, it will continue the mild rebound in the previous period and help stabilize market sentiment.

According to Jiang Han, a senior researcher at Pangu Think Tank, the landing of targeted RRR cuts has little effect on the stock market. The stock market is a barometer, and the impact of the already announced news has been digested.

Is it possible to cut interest rates in the future?

On March 27, the Politburo meeting proposed to guide the loan market interest rate down to maintain reasonable and sufficient liquidity.

On March 31, the executive meeting of the State Council decided to further strengthen the inclusive financial support measures for small and medium-sized enterprises, and further implement the targeted reduction of standards for small and medium-sized banks.

On April 10, the People ’s Bank of China held a press conference on financial statistics for the first quarter of 2020. Sun Guofeng, director of the central bank ’s monetary policy department, said that the benchmark deposit rate has not been adjusted since October 2015, but it does not mean that the actual The deposit interest rate does not change. The actual interest rate of some bank deposits has fallen, reflecting that the market mechanism is working. In fact, the upper and lower limits of deposit interest rates have been liberalized, and banks can set their own floating prices.

Su Jian analyzed that on March 30, the central bank's reverse repurchase rate has fallen, and future MLF and LPR quotations may further reduce interest rates.

Guo Xiaobei believes that the directional RRR cut will help guide LPR to continue its downward movement. This RRR cut, coupled with the central bank ’s open market operation winning interest rate on March 30, fell by 20 basis points, which will help guide the quotation bank to lower LPR quotations and reduce physical financing costs. (Sino-Singapore Jingwei app)

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