Under the impact of the epidemic, China's consumption data rarely showed negative growth. The National Bureau of Statistics of China announced on March 16 that the total retail sales of consumer goods in the first two months of this year were 5,213 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 20.5%.
How will the consumption power of ordinary people be suppressed by the epidemic? In this regard, experts interviewed by "Securities Daily" reporters said that as the epidemic prevention and control situation continues to improve, consumer demand will gradually be released, and various types of consumption will rise sharply, but different types of consumption must be distinguished. Consumption enterprises must rely on more policy stimulus, and measures to promote the consumption expansion system need to be implemented as soon as possible.
Basic consumption:
The vegetable basket is "light"
The "basket of vegetables" is the "basic consumption" of ordinary people in their daily lives. How has this expenditure been in recent times? The reporter found that the price of fruits and vegetables had dropped and the vegetable basket was "light".
Last Sunday (March 22), less than 7 o'clock, the mobile vegetable cart at the gate of a certain community arrived on time. The mobile vegetable cart was introduced by the government. Because it is directly supplied by Beijing Xinfadi Market, vegetables and fruits are very fresh and are popular among nearby residents. During the interview by reporters, many neighbors who bought vegetables said that "the prices of vegetables are cheaper and the burden of living is reduced."
At about the same time, Chu Hua (pseudonym), who lived outside the East Fifth Ring Road, Chaoyang District, Beijing, went out to the Beijing Baliqiao Agricultural Products Center Wholesale Market, 5 kilometers away, and purchased food at home for the next week. "Variety and quantity of vegetables have increased significantly compared to the previous two weeks, and prices have also fallen." Chu Hua said.
Consumers' feelings can be confirmed from the data released by the Ministry of Commerce and the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs on March 20.
According to the monitoring of the Ministry of Commerce, on March 19, the average wholesale price of 30 kinds of vegetables in 100 large-scale agricultural and sideline products wholesale markets nationwide fell by 12.5%. Specifically in Beijing, the market volume of Xinfadi vegetables increased by 2.8%, and the average wholesale price fell by 12.2%.
According to data released by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, on March 20, the "Wholesale Price Index of Agricultural Products 200" was 127.46, a decrease of 0.33 points from the previous day, and the Wholesale Price 200 Index of "vegetable baskets" products was 131.56, 0.37 points lower than the previous day.
The price of vegetables has dropped significantly. What is the reason? Industry sources said that the decline was mainly seasonal. Recently, the market volume of vegetables produced in cold sheds in northern production areas has gradually increased, the cost is lower than that of warm shed vegetables, and prices continue to fall. In addition, the number of catering companies purchasing from the wholesale market is clearly insufficient. After the supply of vegetables is restored, the demand has not been followed up in time, which has made the overall supply of vegetables adequate, and some vegetables have exceeded demand, which has a certain driving effect on the downward price.
"In the later period, as a series of national and local policies and measures gradually came into effect, the recovery of production and living order accelerated, coupled with the warmer weather, the listing of fresh agricultural products increased, the supply of daily necessities will be more abundant, and prices are expected to fall further. "Said the Ministry of Commerce.
The owner of the mobile vegetable car at the gate of the district told reporters that the vegetables and fruits sold by the vegetable car are uniformly priced by the company, and they hope to use lower prices to provide security for ordinary people.
National Development and Reform Commission spokesman Meng Wei said that since March, grain and oil prices across the country, as well as in Hubei Province and Wuhan have been operating steadily, and pork and vegetable prices have fallen. With the "last mile" of transportation and logistics distribution, important living materials Prices are expected to maintain a stable operation.
Quality Consumption:
Large space for improvement
Because of the epidemic, the “House Economy” was splendid and indirectly driven the sales of many commodities. Zhao Ping, director of the International Trade Research Department of the China Council for the Promotion of International Trade, believes that in order to improve the quality of life, both quality goods and quality services will be more popular than before. In the future, quality consumption will become an important direction for consumption upgrade.
It is worth noting that in the "Implementation Opinions on Promoting Consumption Expansion and Quality Enhancement and Accelerating the Formation of a Strong Domestic Market" jointly issued by 23 departments including the National Development and Reform Commission recently, it was explicitly stated that "the launch of quality grading pilots, advocating premium prices and promoting brand consumption , Quality consumption. "
"China's long-term positive economic fundamentals and internal upward trend have not changed, and residents' income levels will increase accordingly. Consumption will continue to be the main engine of economic growth." Wu Chaoming, chief economist of Caixin Securities, accepted the Securities Daily "The reporter said in an interview.
Bank of Communications Financial Research Center chief researcher Tang Jianwei told the Securities Daily reporter that in order to make up for the losses suffered by consumption, measures to promote consumption expansion and quality improvement need to be implemented as soon as possible, on the one hand, to stabilize consumption growth as soon as possible in the short term, and to promote consumption in the medium to long term Upgrade.
So, what should we do? Zhang Anyuan, chief economist of CITIC Construction Investment Securities, told reporters that the most fundamental source of promoting consumption is to increase the disposable income of residents. There are two channels. The first is economic growth and wealth creation. The second is through fiscal and tax policies, through special policy arrangements, such as tax base treatment of personal income tax, auto purchase tax, and special deduction arrangements for housing loans.
The answer given by Tang Jianwei is that the most direct and effective way is to provide tax reductions and financial subsidies, and implement measures to reduce import tariffs on consumer goods, reduce the burden of taxes and fees on services and production industries that are closely related to consumption, and promote them as soon as possible. Consumption expansion and production recovery.
At the same time, he said that the epidemic focused on the offline service industry with a focus on user aggregation, such as transportation, tourism, catering, and offline education. It has brought about more alternative online economic development, such as e-commerce, new media, online live broadcast, and online education. These industries have more consumer demand, which has become an important direction for consumer upgrades.
Wu Chaoming believes that in order to better play the role of consumption as an engine of economic growth, the most important thing now is to release consumption potential: first, fiscal policies are more active and promising, and subsidies and other measures are used to improve residents' consumption capacity; Important time windows, local governments create more consumption opportunities for residents, encourage businesses to appropriately increase profit margins, and stimulate support for household consumption; third, reduce the burden on residents, of which housing loans are the largest debt of the residential sector, stabilize the real estate market and weaken " The "siphon effect" is also crucial to restore residents' consumption potential. The fourth is to encourage residents to moderately increase credit and raise personal and household consumption levels through low-cost borrowing.