China-Singapore Jingwei Client on March 20th According to data from China Foreign Exchange Trading Center, on the 20th, the central parity of RMB against the US dollar was reduced by 530 basis points to 7.1052. Since this week, the RMB central parity has been adjusted down by 1,019 basis points.

Source: Official Website of China Foreign Exchange Trading Center

At the same time, on the 19th, the offshore and onshore renminbi exchange rates against the U.S. dollar fell successively to 7.1, a new low of more than five months. On the other hand, the US dollar index rose sharply by 1.57% on the 19th and closed at 102.7468 in the late session of the New York currency market.

Dongfang Jincheng pointed out that this week, the onshore and offshore RMB exchange rates have experienced a decline. On the one hand, the US dollar index has risen this week, and the mid-price pricing mechanism determines that there is a requirement for the yuan to be lowered. On the other hand, since the beginning of the year, the RMB has appreciated against most currencies other than the safe-haven currencies such as the Japanese yen and the Swiss franc. As the market expects the possibility of the epidemic to pass back, the RMB exchange rate will make up slightly.

Many institutions said that under the global spread of the epidemic, the volatility remains high and difficult. As the VaR shock has been transmitted from the stock market to credit and financing markets, the willingness of banks to raise US dollars has declined, and the "US dollar shortage" will dominate market. In the future, emerging market currencies will still face selling pressure, which may further lead to a stronger US dollar. The deputy director of CITIC Securities Research Institute also clearly pointed out that the direct reason for the strength of the US dollar index is the tight liquidity of the US dollar, and we need to be alert to the liquidity risks that are currently being exposed.

However, the team of Sun Binbin of Tianfeng Securities mentioned that "from the shallow Sino-US spread to the deep balance of payments and capital accounts, we have built several lines of defense." The shocks of advanced economies will lead to funds from emerging markets The outflow of the country may cause a currency and debt crisis, but China will be better in this regard. The key is that the central bank has the ability to stabilize RMB liquidity.

Source: Wind

As of press time, the offshore RMB has risen by more than 200 basis points against the US dollar at 7.1278; the US dollar index has fallen in the short term at 102.5187.

For the follow-up trend of the RMB exchange rate, the chief analyst of CITIC Securities fixed income clearly believes that the core factor affecting the RMB exchange rate in the short term is the trend of the US dollar, and the easing of the trend of the appreciation of the US dollar requires the release of liquidity pressure on the US dollar, and the Fed needs to launch more liquidity Support policies.

Dongfang Jincheng said that in the short term, due to the continuous disturbance of the epidemic, the fast-in and fast-out of highly liquid funds may bring some pressure on the RMB exchange rate, but it will not substantially weaken the basis for the reasonable operation of the RMB. The continued depreciation does not constitute the exchange rate operation The main tone. As China's epidemic is first curbed globally, China's economy will also take the lead in restoring stability. As the global central banks have entered the ranks of interest rate cuts, the value of the allocation of RMB assets will become more prominent, and the overall fluctuation of the RMB exchange rate will not change. (Zhongxin Jingwei APP)