The paralysis generated by the health alarm will have a strong impact resulting in the destruction of 300,000 jobs if it lasts four weeks , according to an analysis carried out by Cepyme, the employers of medium and small companies prepared by the Autonomous University of Madrid. .

If the immediate effect is analyzed, the effect on employment is massive. The Professor of Applied Economics at the Autonomous University, Julián Pérez , has indicated that throughout the next month, job suspensions through Temporary Employment Regulation Files (ERTE) could affect between two and a half and three million people . These workers are covered by the emergency plan approved two days ago by the Government, which establishes that they will all have unemployment benefits channeled through the State Public Employment Service (SEPE).

The destruction of employment would be concentrated, according to the study, on SMEs, which represent 98% of the country's business network: 70,000 would be destroyed in micro-SMEs; 70,000 in small companies and 40,000 more in medium. 50,000 jobs would fall in large companies. The rest would correspond to self-employed workers.

The study is estimative, its foundation is the slowdown in consumption and its most determining variable is the duration of the state of alarm that the economy is paralyzed by the health crisis. The president of Cepyme, Gerardo Cuerva, stresses that stopping and closing is not the same as keeping the activity on hold so that when the state of alarm passes, recovery is as fast as possible. Cuerva has encrypted in thousands the Employment Regulation Files (ERTE) that are being presented in Spain and has asked Labor to automate them as much as possible.

The final effect of the crisis will depend, according to the study, on the prolongation in time of this situation, although considering an initial duration of four weeks, it could generate a direct impact of around 0.9% of GDP, which would rise to 1.7% when including indirect and induced effects on the entire economic system.

Among the most affected sectors are accommodation and hotel services , where SMEs represent around 70% of total employment; travel agencies (59%); the textile industry (81%); clothing (65%) and leather and footwear (79%). Along the same lines, some services with a relative impact of more than 5%, such as libraries, archives and museums, gambling and betting, or sports and recreational activities, also have an employment share in SMEs of around 80%. The study contemplates the closure to 100% of the hospitality industry, which employs more than two million people in Spain.

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