(Countering new crown pneumonia) China's economic war "epidemic" record: Why did the Chinese economy withstand the impact of the epidemic in the past two months?

China News Agency, Beijing, March 16 (Reporter Wang Enbo) "The national economy withstood the impact of the new crown pneumonia epidemic from January to February." At the press conference held by the State Council Information Office on the 16th, Mao Shengyong, a spokesperson for the National Bureau of Statistics of China, opened the door To give this judgment.

Under the impact of the epidemic, there have been some variables in China's economic operation. The data disclosed on the same day showed that from January to February, consumption, investment and industrial added value dropped by 20.5%, 24.5% and 13.5% year-on-year respectively. However, in the variables, there are also some "invariant" that are worthy of attention and become the footnote of the above judgment.

For example, the volume of production demand is considerable, and the advantages of ultra-large-scale economics remain unchanged. In 2019, China's total economic volume is nearly 100 trillion yuan (RMB, the same below), and the output of major industrial products has maintained the world's number one for many years, which provides a strong guarantee for responding to emergencies. From January to February, the total output value of China's industrial enterprises above designated size still reached 11.5 trillion yuan, the total retail sales of consumer goods exceeded 5.2 trillion yuan, and the completion of fixed asset investment exceeded 3.3 trillion yuan.

For another example, the strong supply capacity of the industrial system is still “online” and the development resilience remains unchanged. During the epidemic prevention and control, China's production of important industries related to national economy and people's livelihood has not been interrupted, and products such as ethylene, crude steel and pig iron have maintained good growth. Through orderly regulation, the capacity of masks, protective clothing, alcohol and other disinfectant supplies urgently needed by the society has also been greatly improved in a short period of time, meeting the needs of epidemic prevention.

Many previous analyses have pointed out that the impact of the epidemic on the economy is short-term and one-time. It is these "invariants" that have allowed China's economy to withstand shocks and to "take off" after a temporary "squat".

Wen Bin, chief researcher of China Minsheng Bank, told reporters that the short-term impact of the epidemic on the economy is more obvious, but the current trend of domestic epidemic prevention and control is gradually improving, and positive factors are increasing. The long-term positive of the Chinese economy has not changed, and the impact of the epidemic is temporary. Controllable, this year's economy will show a trend of low to high.

It is worth mentioning that at the same time as the "home" of the whole people and many traditional industries are stalled, some emerging kinetic energy has come forward to become a bright spot in China's economy.

Taking the Internet as an example, Mao Shengyong pointed out that it has played a very good role in the prevention and control of epidemics, the deployment of materials, the delivery of consumer goods, online education, online remote consultation and cultural and entertainment consumption. From the perspective of market sales, from January to February, online retail sales of physical goods in China increased by 3% year-on-year, accounting for 21.5% of total retail sales of social consumer goods, an increase of 5 percentage points over the same period last year.

Another new initiative that has received a lot of attention comes from "new infrastructure". The Standing Committee of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held a meeting on March 4 and pointed out that the construction of new infrastructure such as 5G networks and data centers will be accelerated. Among the key construction projects announced this year, the proportion of “new infrastructure” projects has increased significantly.

Liao Qun, chief economist of China CITIC Bank (International), pointed out that the "new infrastructure" based on information infrastructure will help economic development in two ways. In the upstream direction, multiple related industries such as information equipment manufacturing and electronic component manufacturing will be driven. In the downstream direction, the establishment of information infrastructure will greatly increase the production capacity and efficiency of various industries, thereby benefiting the entire economy and society.

In addition, in order to hedge the impact of the epidemic, China ’s various ministries and commissions have recently launched a series of policy “combination punches” to support epidemic prevention and control, promote resumption of work and production, and help enterprises to survive difficult times. The effects are constantly showing. The most recent card was that the central bank decided to lower the quota on the 16th and release 550 billion yuan of long-term funds.

Mao Shengyong revealed that in order to better hedge the impact of the epidemic and respond to external risk challenges, the official next step will be to strengthen macro policy adjustments, "this is affirmative."

In Wen Bin's view, the focus of macro policies in the next stage is still to strengthen counter-cyclical adjustments, and funds can be secured through measures such as a modest expansion of the fiscal deficit rate. With the opening of foreign banks' easing policies and the fall in domestic inflation, monetary policy has further opened up space. Comprehensive use of RRR cuts, interest rate cuts, and open market operations should be used to maintain reasonable liquidity. The benchmark interest rate on deposits should be reduced in a timely and appropriate manner to guide the real economy's financing costs downward.

Ye Yindan, a postdoctoral fellow of the Bank of China Research Institute, pointed out that the current situation of China ’s epidemic prevention and control continues to improve, and the production and living order is accelerating. However, the global epidemic situation is becoming increasingly severe. Against this background, effectively driving domestic demand is the key to stable growth. Focusing on actively expanding domestic demand and speeding up work and production. (Finish)