Syria: nine years of conflict, Bashar al-Assad in reconquest, but dependent

Text by: RFI Follow

March 15, 2011 began the uprising in Syria. Since then, this revolt has turned into a war that has killed around 384,000 people and millions of refugees and displaced people, according to the OSDH. The Syrian President Bashar al-Assad still in place is determined to reconquer the whole territory with his foreign allies.

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Several Syrian regions still escape the regime of Bashar al-Assad. In the east, the Kurds still control vast territories, even if their autonomy project was largely weakened by the partial American disengagement and by the Turkish offensives.

In the north, the province of Idleb has found a very precarious calm in recent days. But what future for the millions of Syrian civilians that the war has massed in this enclave still held by rebel and jihadist groups?

This conflict is the “ worst human-made disaster since World War II, ” the UN estimated in 2017. It has caused the exodus of more than 11 million displaced people and refugees out of the 25 million Syrians, sometimes hurrying to the gates of Europe. According to the new assessment of the OSDH, which relies on a vast network of military and medical sources across Syria, at least 384,000 people have died since the start of the conflict on March 15, 2011.

NGOs tirelessly denounce the abuses and human rights abuses perpetrated by the regime, accused of deadly chemical attacks, but also of torture and arbitrary arrests.

A weakened regime

The Syrian president insists that his goal is to win back. But this can only be envisaged with the military support of Moscow and Tehran. Bashar al-Assad owes the survival of his regime in particular to these two allies, but at the cost of great dependence.

Nine years after the start of the conflict, the Syrian president frequently speaks of victory, but in a country under the tutelage of his allies. Still very isolated internationally, the country is suffering from a serious economic crisis.

A bruised country

As Paul Khalifeh , our correspondent in Beirut, relates, on the eve of Russia's involvement in the war in September 2015, the Syrian army only controlled 10% of the territory. A fragmented territory, made up of the capital Damascus and major cities, while the majority of rural areas were in the hands of rebels and jihadists.

Five years later, with the support of the Russians, the Iranians and the Lebanese Hezbollah, government troops regained control of the border with Jordan and Lebanon, part of that with Iraq. They have reconquered 70% of the territory, reestablished the main communication routes between the regions, the most recent being the M5 motorway, which crosses Syria from north to south via Damascus and Aleppo.

Over the years, the Syrian army and its allies have eliminated the armed opposition brigades, and the Islamic State group, which controlled half of the country. In its latest offensive, it took control of much of the province of Idleb, the last rebel and jihadist stronghold.

Turkey remains the last major regional player still influential in the northwest. The northeast of the country, controlled by Kurdish militias, still escapes from central power.

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• Syria
• Bashar al-Assad

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