Chinanews.com Client, Beijing, March 11 (Xie Yiguan) After the global financial market suffered a "Black Monday", investor panic cooled on Tuesday. The Asia-Pacific stock market, the US stock market, and crude oil futures staged a major upturn. The low point rebounded sharply, and the global financial markets affected by the epidemic and oil price war came out of the "haze"?

U.S. stocks stage a major upturn, analysts say they have not adjusted

On Tuesday (March 10), before the opening of the US stock market, the S & P 500 index futures once rose to 2879 points, up 5%, triggering trading restrictions. On the same day, the three major U.S. stock indexes opened higher. During the trading session, the stock index once pulled back, and the rally resumed in the end. The three major stock indexes all rose by nearly 5%.

As of the close, the Dow rose 1167.14 points, or 4.89%, to 25018.16 points, and returned to 25,000 points; the Nasdaq rose 4.95% to 8,344.25 points; the S & P 500 index rose 4.94%, the largest single-day increase since December 2018. At 2882.23 points.

The closing performance of the three major US stock indexes.

Energy stocks rose collectively, Exxon Mobil rose 2.72%, Chevron rose 5.28%, ConocoPhillips rose 2.38%, Schlumberger rose 4.91%, and EOG Energy rose 10.61%. Financial stocks rose, with JP Morgan Chase up 7.77%, Goldman Sachs up 6.76%, Citigroup up 8.19%, Morgan Stanley up 5.33%, and Bank of America up 7.66%. Large-scale technology stocks soared collectively. Apple rose 7.2%, Amazon rose 5.07%, Nai Fei rose 5.09%, Google rose 4.88%, and Microsoft rose 6.84%.

According to foreign media reports, US President Trump met with Republican senators at the White House on the same day and made a proposal to reduce the payroll tax to zero within the year. Trump said that the meeting focused on economic stimulus plans, and that salary tax was also one of the measures discussed at the meeting.

However, market analysts believe that the US government's fiscal policy can offset some of the impact of the new crown pneumonia epidemic and crude oil prices, but it cannot solve these problems.

Allianz's chief economic adviser Mohamed El-Erian said on Tuesday that although US stocks opened higher on Tuesday after a historic decline, the stock market has not bottomed out and the market will become very unstable. Rabobank also said that comparing the trend of US stocks under the same economic risks and the Fed's emergency decision in 2008, it was found that the market has not been fully adjusted.

Asia Pacific stocks close in red, epidemic continues to suppress European stocks

In the Asia-Pacific stock market, on the 10th, the Nikkei 225 Index closed up 0.85% to 19867.12 points; the South Korea Composite Index closed up 0.42% to 1962.93 points; the Hong Kong Hang Seng Index closed up 1.41% to 25392.51 points.

China's stock market is more optimistic for Chinese and foreign institutions. The FTSE China A50 index futures rose strongly by more than 5%. On the same day, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 2996.76 points, up 1.82%, again hitting the 3,000-point mark; the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 11,403.47 points, up 2.65%; the GEM Index closed at 2148.81 points, up 2.66%.

Citibank said that the inflection point of China ’s new crown pneumonia epidemic can now be basically judged. Under the stimulation of a series of fiscal and monetary policies, China's stock market will soon recover, optimistic about China's market-oriented enterprises and the new infrastructure investment sector.

The three major European stock indexes closed on the 10th.

However, the European stock market that subsequently opened failed to take over the pleasing gains in the Asia-Pacific stock market on the 10th. The main European stock indexes opened higher for a time, and collectively "turned green" during the session. At the close, the British FTSE 100 index fell 0.09%; the French CAC40 index fell 1.51%; the German DAX index fell 1.41%.

"It is predicted that the GDP growth rate of the euro area in 2020 will be 0.5%." S & P analysis believes that the macro outlook for the euro area in 2020 is highly uncertain and is getting worse.

Affected by the epidemic, on the 10th, Michelle, President of the European Council, and Feng Delian, President of the European Commission, held a remote video conference with EU leaders to discuss the spread of the new crown pneumonia epidemic.

According to media reports, after the meeting, Feng Delane said that a new crown pneumonia epidemic response investment fund of 25 billion euros (about 195 billion yuan) will be established. The fund will be used to support health care, SMEs, the labor market and the affected parts of the EU economy.

International oil prices have risen collectively as risk aversion has cooled

On Tuesday, the price of U.S. WTI crude oil futures rose 10.38% to close at $ 34.36 per barrel, rebounding from a trend that plummeted nearly 25% the previous trading day; Brent crude oil futures prices also rose 8.6% to close at 37.31 per barrel US dollars. Affected by the crude oil price war on Monday, both WTI crude oil and Brent crude oil hit their biggest one-day drop since the 1991 Gulf War.

US WTI crude oil futures price chart.

According to the Wall Street Journal, former Saudi Arabian energy minister Farikh is reportedly mediating a crude oil price war with Russia. If the mediation is successful, OPEC may hold an emergency meeting in April.

According to Russian media reports, Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak said on Tuesday that the door of OPEC cooperation has not been closed, and the next OPEC meeting is planned to be held from May to June. Russia does not rule out joint measures with OPEC to stabilize market.

However, the haze of the crude oil price war has not dissipated.

On the 10th, Saudi Aramco announced that its supply in April would reach 12.3 million barrels per day. This means that it will increase crude oil production by 26%. On the same day, Novak said that Russian crude oil production has the capacity to increase 500,000 barrels per day, and Rosneft can increase production by 300,000 barrels per day.

In addition, Saudi Arabia has reached an agreement with Kuwait to restore production from a joint operating oil field in the so-called "neutral zone." Kuwait reduced the official price of crude oil sold to Asia in April by $ 4.65 / barrel.

Panic index drops sharply, US bond yields soar

On Tuesday, the financial market panic index VIX closed at 47.30, a decline of 13.15%, the largest one-day drop since February 6, 2018. The price of gold with a safe-haven nature suffered selling pressure, and COMEX gold futures closed down 1.58% to $ 1649.2 per ounce.

On the same day, U.S. Treasury yields rebounded sharply from historical lows. March U.S. Treasury yields rose 8.1 basis points to 0.467%, 2-year Treasury yields rose 14.9 basis points to 0.55%, and 5-year Treasury yields It rose 19.3 basis points to 0.675%, the 10-year US bond yield rose 26.4 basis points to 0.812%, and the 30-year US bond yield rose 27.5 basis points to 1.28%.

Data map.

At the same time, the US dollar index rose 1.61% to 96.5709, the largest single-day gain in more than three years. Non-US currencies fell across the board, with EUR / USD down 1.49% to 1.1282, GBP / USD down 1.62% to 1.291, AUD / USD down 1.23% to 0.6506, USD / JPY up 3.22% to 105.66, and offshore RMB / USD down 114 The basis point was reported at 6.9639.

According to market analysis, expectations that governments will take stimulus measures to combat the impact of the epidemic are heating up, driving the dollar and US debt yields to rise sharply. However, BenUdy, a macro economist at Kaitou, said that the current reversal will not be interpreted too much as a positive signal that the market is back to normal.

The Fed cuts interest rates again? Can it boost the market?

On the 9th, the Federal Reserve announced that it would increase the size of overnight repo operations from $ 100 billion to more than $ 150 billion from March 12 to ensure the normal operation of the repo market.

However, Trump tweeted on the 10th that the Fed raised rates too quickly and cut rates too slowly. The Fed should reduce interest rates to those of rival countries. The Fed needs to be a leader, not a follower it has been playing.

The Federal Reserve will hold a meeting next week, and the market generally expects that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates again after taking urgent action last week.

Goldman Sachs chief economist Hazus said in a report to customers that the Fed is expected to cut interest rates by 50 basis points during the March interest rate meeting and cut interest rates again in April to bring interest rates back to 0% to 0.25%. Historical low. Barclays also expects that the Fed will cut interest rates by 50 basis points at both the FOMC meetings in March and April, thereby bringing the monetary policy to the zero limit.

Data Map: New York Stock Exchange.

Citibank believes that although global central banks may adopt interest rate reduction strategies, the actual effect remains to be seen, as historical experience shows that similar interest rate cuts may make investors more cautious. Goldman Sachs strategists also pointed out that because no other event-driven bear market was caused by a virus, it was unclear whether monetary countermeasures were effective. (Finish)