Xinhua News Agency, Beijing, March 10th Topic: February prices show structural changes Experts predict that the annual CPI will be high before low
Xinhua News Agency reporters Chen Weiwei and Chen Aiping
The National Bureau of Statistics released data on the 10th. In February, the national consumer price index (CPI) rose by 0.8% month-on-month, a decrease of 0.6 percentage point from the previous month; it rose by 5.2% year-on-year, and decreased by 0.2 percentage point.
"In February, the sudden outbreak of new crown pneumonia had a more complex impact on the price trend. However, with the implementation of a series of policies and measures such as the resumption of work and production by the Central Committee of the CPC and the State Council, and the stabilization of supply and prices, the price operation was generally stable, showing The structural change trend of rising and falling, CPI continues to rise but the growth rate has declined. "Said Zhao Maohong, director of the Urban Department of the National Bureau of Statistics.
The structural change is first reflected in the rapid rise in food prices in food prices and relatively stable non-food prices.
In February, food prices rose by 21.9% year-on-year, an increase of 1.3 percentage points from the previous month, affecting a CPI increase of approximately 4.45 percentage points. In food, pork prices increased by 135.2% year-on-year, which affected the CPI increase by about 3.19 percentage points, which is an important factor to promote CPI; fresh vegetable prices rose by 10.9%, egg prices rose by 1%, and fresh fruit prices fell by 5.6%.
From the month-on-month data that better reflects the short-term situation, in February, pork prices rose by 9.3% month-on-month, or by 0.8 percentage points; the prices of fresh vegetables, fresh fruits, and aquatic products rose by 9.5%, 4.8%, and 3% month-on-month, with different increases. The degree drops.
In Zhao Maohong's view, food prices rose much in February. We need to analyze from the two aspects of supply and demand:
From the perspective of supply, various localities have implemented transportation control measures to varying degrees, and logistics in some areas have been sluggish; manpower shortages have made it difficult to distribute materials, and costs have risen; some companies and markets have postponed the start of construction and the market, which has affected the production and supply of some products. .
From the perspective of demand, affected by factors such as "home" requirements and "hedging" psychology, some residents are hoarding, and some regions have snapped up instant noodles, meat products and quick-frozen foods, and even affected other foods. Push prices up.
In recent years, various regions and departments have adopted measures to maintain supply and stabilize prices. Each region attaches great importance to the supply of "vegetable baskets", actively unblocks logistics, and strengthens market supervision. This all helps to stabilize short-term prices.
At the same time, non-food prices rose moderately. Data show that in February, the price of services changed from a month-on-month increase of 1% to a decrease of 0.2%; a year-on-year increase of 0.6%, a decrease of 0.9 percentage points from the previous month. Among them, the price of medical services increased slightly by 0.1%, and the prices of air tickets and hotel accommodation decreased by 7.8% and 1% respectively.
"In February, due to the epidemic prevention and control, some commercial and service outlets ceased to operate, and consumer demand for some non-necessities was also suppressed. Both supply and demand contracted, prices were basically stable, and some project prices even fell." Zhao Maohong said.
Experts analyze that the epidemic situation will have a periodical impact on the prices of some commodities, but will not cause prices to continue to rise overall. In February, the core CPI excluding food and energy prices rose by 1% year-on-year, a decrease of 0.5 percentage points from the previous month.
Tang Jianwei, chief researcher of the Bank of Communications Financial Research Center, said that during the epidemic, rising food demand and limited supply caused food prices to rise rapidly, supporting CPI at a high level. However, the core CPI dropped significantly, reflecting the weak overall demand, and the subsequent upward pressure on prices was not great.
"From the perspective of total supply, domestic industrial and agricultural production is generally stable, the market is adequate, and prices have a solid foundation for stable operation." Said Guo Liyan, a researcher at the Institute of Market and Price Research at the China Macroeconomic Research Institute, considering the gap in the first and second half of this year. Large, the probability of CPI throughout the year shows a high trend and then a low trend.
Wang Likun, deputy researcher of the Institute of Market Economy of the Development Research Center of the State Council, believes that the stock of pigs has initially stabilized, and it is expected that the "contribution" of pork prices to the 2020 CPI will be high and low. Considering the impact of the epidemic and pork prices, it is expected that the year-on-year increase in CPI in the first half of the year will hover at a relatively high level, and the increase in the second half of the year will gradually decline.