After the epidemic, the layout of big cities is facing optimization, these types of investment will become hot spots
The polycentric development model means that there will be some obvious changes in the spatial layout of Chinese cities in the future, and the development of suburban groups and satellite cities will accelerate.
The outbreak of the new crown pneumonia epidemic has also sparked discussions about choosing between large and small cities. However, in the opinion of industry insiders, after the epidemic, the population concentration in large cities will not change, and it may even accelerate further. Therefore, how to improve the resilience of large cities and optimize the urban layout is even more important.
Experts predict that suburban groups and satellite cities will usher in rapid development, and the various transportation infrastructures connecting these groups and living circles will become investment hotspots.
The trend of population concentration in big cities will not change
Feng Kui, a researcher at the Center for the Reform and Development of Chinese Cities and Towns, analyzed First Financial Reporter that the epidemic is a short-term shock and will not change the basic direction of China's urban spatial evolution. In the future, China's central cities will still have greater development. Central cities lead urban circles and urban agglomerations, and the basic path of urban agglomerations to promote coordinated regional development will not change.
"Because the epidemic helped us find the shortcomings of urban agglomerations, metropolitan areas, and central cities, with the repair of future shortcomings, they will gain more kinetic energy in high-quality development." Feng Kui said, in terms of urban quality, In the future, there must be both a positive list and a negative list. The positive list is longer than the long board, and the negative list is to check for shortcomings, fill loopholes, and find weak points.
The epidemic also shows that in the face of major catastrophes, the space for self-sufficiency is particularly important.
Hu Gang, the chairman of the South China Urban Research Society and a professor at Jinan University, analyzed First Financial reporters that the trend of population concentration in large cities and advantageous regions will not change, which is determined by economic laws. Public resources such as health care and education in large cities and employment development opportunities are difficult for small and medium cities to match.
Among them, after the epidemic, comprehensive medical resources are undoubtedly the focus of more attention. According to the Fudan University Hospital Management Institute's "2018 Fudan Edition Chinese Hospital Rankings" List of Top 100 Hospitals, 21 hospitals in Beijing ranked first, and 18 in Shanghai ranked second; Guangzhou ranked 9 Home ranks third. After Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Wuhan, Xi'an, Chongqing, and Hangzhou, four cities ranked second with five hospitals; Nanjing and Chengdu each had four; Jinan, Tianjin, Changsha, and Shenyang each had three.
Judging from the distribution of top hospitals, they are mainly concentrated in municipalities directly under the Central Government, large central cities and strong provincial capitals. And similar to Shenzhen, Xiamen, Suzhou, Qingdao, Ningbo and other coastal non-provincial capitals are also actively making up for the shortcomings in medical and health.
Zhang Ming, head of Guangzhou Dingju Technology Service Co., Ltd. said that not only are big cities with abundant medical resources, but also receive high attention and good transportation infrastructure. In the event of an emergency, transportation of materials is also more convenient. These are inaccessible to small cities.
Peng Peng, executive chairman of the Guangdong Provincial Institutional Reform Research Association, analyzed First Financial reporter that from a medical perspective, many small and medium-sized cities have weak medical resources and many medical equipment are expensive. It is not economical if the population is too scattered. Many excellent medical professionals are more willing to stay in big cities. Therefore, in the future, it is necessary to promote the development of small and medium cities through large cities, and implement hierarchical treatment and joint development.
Peng Peng also said that although the population will not be transformed into a big city, many adjustments can be made within the big city. For example, the city's medical resources should not be excessively concentrated in a certain area, especially in the old urban area, and the spatial layout should be more reasonable.
As the population gathers, there will be more infrastructure investment in big cities in the future. Hu Gang said that due to the impact of the epidemic, the resilience of big cities in the future-the rapid response and recovery capabilities of cities under the impact has received widespread attention. Storage, transportation roads, public venues, medical assistance, power and water supply facilities are all key to the construction of resilient cities. Big cities must have two different operating systems in the regular and unconventional periods in the future.
Optimizing the layout of big cities: the rise of suburbs and satellite cities
The economies of scale in large cities cannot be blocked, and optimizing the urban layout is even more critical. Prof. Li Guoping, Dean of the Capital Development Research Institute of Peking University, believes that core cities in the metropolitan area are generally troubled by transportation, housing, environment, and price issues. Therefore, a multi-centric, networked metropolitan structure needs to be established to form a number of centers. To decentralize the single center.
The polycentric development model means that there will be some obvious changes in the spatial layout of Chinese cities in the future, and the development of suburban groups and satellite cities will accelerate.
58 The "Property Market Report during the Epidemic Period" recently released by the same city and Anjuke shows that affected by the epidemic, buyers will pay more attention to indoor air circulation, residential population density, and community size when choosing a house in the future, accounting for more than 50%. %; For the tendency of choosing a lot, 48.4% of buyers are more inclined to buy suburban houses with better living conditions.
Zhang Bo, director of the branch office of Anju Guest House Industry Research Institute, analyzed the First Financial Reporter. On the one hand, due to the impact of the epidemic, the travel of people is restricted accordingly. The external environment of the residential community and the internal dimensions of the living space are required in a short period of time. Increased, this demand will decline after the epidemic. On the other hand, it also indicates that the population's requirements for an ideal living life will further increase. In the future, the attractiveness of satellite cities or suburban areas that integrate the production and city of first- and second-tier cities, especially the well-planned and environmentally-friendly areas, will become increasingly attractive. This phenomenon is especially true. It will be more obvious in first-tier cities.
Hu Gang analyzed that after the epidemic is over, people's requirements for living environment and community will increase, and many people will tend to communities with better environment. "If you already have a suite in the city center, you can choose to buy one in the suburbs if you can."
In fact, in many large cities, the proportion of the population in the suburbs and peripheral areas is rising. Take Hangzhou as an example. In recent years, the growth rate of the permanent population in the old urban areas of Hangzhou (upper urban area, lower urban area, Jianggan District, Gongshu District, Xihu District, and Scenic Areas) has been much lower than that of the whole city; the surrounding areas (Binjiang District, Economic Development Zone, Dajiang East, Xiaoshan District, Yuhang District, Fuyang District, Lin'an District) are the main areas for Hangzhou's permanent population growth.
In Guangzhou, the population of peripheral areas such as Zengcheng, Nansha, Luogang has grown rapidly in recent years, and the subway passenger traffic in these areas has grown rapidly.
Feng Kui predicts that in the future urban development, more emphasis will be placed on urban groups, half-hour life circles, and quarter-hour life circles. Of course, various transportation infrastructures that connect these groups and living circles have become hot spots for investment.
Among them, urban rail transit, especially the urban express rail, will become an important part of the shortcomings of infrastructure construction. According to the statistics of the China Urban Rail Transit Association, as of December 2019, of the urban rail transit operating lines totaling 6,720.27 kilometers, the urban express rail reached 715.61 kilometers, accounting for 10.63%, becoming the most important standard outside the subway. It can be seen that in recent years, as China's population has concentrated in central cities and metropolitan areas, the role of the urban fast track has become increasingly prominent.
According to Hu Gang's analysis, the speed of the urban fast track can generally reach 100 ~ 160 kilometers per hour. Many originally took an hour, but now it can be reached in half an hour. This has also expanded the scope of the central city and made the surrounding suburbs Satellite City has become an area where people can live, commute, and daily life, which has greatly optimized the spatial layout of large cities.
In the process of suburbanization of the population, the development of suburbs, and satellite cities, the infrastructure construction of roads, parking lots, schools, and hospitals surrounding these areas will also increase significantly, and infrastructure investment in large cities will increase.
Peng Peng said that in the future, the spatial structure of central cities and large cities should be optimized and adjusted, such as increasing investment in education and medical care in peripheral areas, and increasing the attractiveness of peripheral areas. The construction of new urban areas and surrounding areas must be of high standards, and public infrastructure must be improved. With the improvement of comfort in peripheral areas, coupled with factors such as housing prices, the development of peripheral areas will become better and better.
He believes that after many people move to the outer area and the central city area is "sparsely", the central city area can arrange more squares and public spaces, which can be used as important places for emergency rescue, thereby further optimizing the urban space layout.