Owner attention! International oil prices have fallen for days, but domestic refined oil prices may be stranded

Zhongxin Jingwei Client March 3rd (Xiong Xiyi) At 24:00 today (3rd), the fourth refined oil price adjustment window for the year will open. Several agencies said that this round of oil price adjustments or "stranded."

Data map. Photo by Zhongxin Jingwei

International oil prices hit the biggest weekly decline in four years

In the early morning of February 29, Beijing time, as of the close of the day, the price of light crude oil futures for delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell by 2.33 US dollars to close at 44.76 US dollars per barrel, a decrease of 4.95%. The price of London Brent crude for April delivery fell by $ 1.66 to close at $ 50.52 per barrel, a decrease of 3.18%. At this point, international crude oil prices have fallen for six consecutive trading days, and hit the largest weekly decline in more than four years.

Picture source: China National Petroleum Corporation's official website

Zhuochuang Information pointed out that global public health events have led to continuous economic problems, especially the spread of this event to most European countries, which will further exacerbate the downward pressure on the economy. Under this pressure, crude oil demand is greatly restrained. A report released by the International Energy Agency (IEA) in February stated that as the impact of the epidemic on China and the world economy spread, global crude oil demand is expected to fall by 435,000 barrels per day in the first quarter.

According to Zhongyu Information's analysis, according to the current trend of oil price operation, it is more likely that the oil producers ’union reached a larger production reduction agreement in March, but further reductions in production cannot stabilize the bottom of the oil price in the short term. Judging crude oil futures prices in early March Will continue down. The fall in the bottom of oil prices will prompt core oil-producing countries to respond quickly. From mid-March, oil prices may begin to rebound, but the rebound space is limited.

This round of refined oil prices or stranded

According to Jinlianchuang's calculation, as of the ninth working day on March 2, the average price of reference crude oil varieties was US $ 53.67 / barrel, with a change rate of -0.11%, and the corresponding gasoline and diesel should be raised by 20 yuan / ton.

Zhuochuang Information said that during this pricing cycle, international oil prices rose after falling, and the domestic reference crude oil change rate continued to fluctuate within a positive range. In the later period, international oil prices will continue to be weak, and this round of retail oil product price limits may face stranding or pressure adjustment.

Zhongyu Information ’s analysis on February 28 showed that on the 8th working day (February 28) of this round of refined oil pricing period, Zhongyu Information estimated that the rate of change of crude oil was 0.74%, and Zhongyu Crude Oil ’s valuation was US $ 56.258 / barrel, compared with the benchmark The price rose by $ 0.414 / barrel, and the maximum retail price of refined oil products is expected to increase by 90 yuan / ton on March 3 at 24:00. According to the current (referred to February 28) spot price of crude oil, the final increase in the price adjustment window for refined oil products will remain at 40 yuan / ton, which does not meet the price adjustment conditions of the Development and Reform Commission, and the market may be stranded.

Zhongyu Information further analyzed that if based on the current crude oil spot (referring to February 28), based on the daily decline of US $ 1 / barrel, the final adjustment of this round of price adjustment will remain at an increase of 20-30 yuan / ton , This round of price adjustment window is likely to run aground.

The client of Sino-Singapore Jingwei found that the domestic refined oil prices have undergone three adjustments this year, one stranded and two downward adjustments. The gasoline and diesel prices have been reduced by 835 yuan / ton and 805 yuan / ton, respectively. If this round of price adjustment window is stranded, the adjustment of domestic refined oil prices since this year will present a pattern of "zero rise, two declines, and two stranded".

In accordance with the principle of "one adjustment within ten working days", the next round of price adjustment window for refined oil products will open at 24:00 on March 17. Zhongyu Information believes that from the outlook, the main units in various regions are currently under heavy inventory pressure. After entering the new sales cycle, shipments are more enthusiastic. Considering the weaker price increase this time, it is expected that the domestic market oil price will decline further. The zero mark spread is expected to continue to widen. (Zhongxin Jingwei APP)

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