Nothing will be the same from now on in the alliance between Renault and Nissan.
The heads of the two companies, Luca de Meo and Makoto Uchida, have already started negotiations to reshape that alliance.
The talks started this weekend, coinciding with the celebration of the Formula 1 Grand Prix of Japan, although they will continue throughout the month.
Renault and Nissan (to which Mitsubishi would later add), have been allied since 1999,
when the former came to the rescue of the former to end up taking control of it thanks to the 43% it owns in its capital.
But it is an unbalanced union, since Nissan, which owns 15% in the French manufacturer, has never had the right to vote in decisions about the future of Renault.
On the other hand, the French state - with a participation similar to its own - can even block those measures with which it does not agree.
Like, for example,
when the merger with FCA was negotiated, which ended up giving up the operation due to "the political conditions" that existed in France.
FCA later ended up joining PSA to form the current Stellantis.
Before De Meo's arrival at the top of Renault in 2020, that imbalance had been undermining relations between the two companies for years, with
Nissan eager to free itself from the influence of the French manufacturer.
The
trigger that took the tension to maximum levels
came precisely when Carlos Ghosn, the plenipotentiary boss in the entire structure, was accused of fraud from Japan.
Detained for several months, at the end of 2019 he carried out a bizarre escape to end up in Beirut,
from where he cannot be extradited to Japan.
rebalancing of forces
The situation could take a crucial turn because, according to the French press, Renault could reduce its stake in Nissan
to 15% in exchange for giving it entry into the new electrical entity called Ampère.
The operation would mean losing control over Nissan, according to Japanese law.
"Renault could consider reducing its stake until it owns, in the long term, only 15% of Nissan," French newspaper Les Echos reported on Sunday.
"An amount that would symbolize a new balance with its Japanese partner."
According to Les Echos, Renault could recover "up to 4,000 million euros" with the sale of those shares.
An injection of money that would come in handy
when it is still going ahead with its restructuring, which has already allowed it to earn almost 900 million euros in 2021.
In order not to brutally destabilize the markets, the two partners "would reflect on the constitution of a trust that would organize , in the long term, the fall of Renault's participation, according to predefined value levels".
split into two units
"The transaction, if agreed, could be announced as early as November," the Wall Street Journal reported on Friday.
The same medium indicates that
Renault will communicate on November 8, within the framework of its capital market day,
the new decisions on the reorganization of its business.
In this sense, the plan to get rid of up to 60% of its combustion engine and gearbox business is also known, which could go to the Saudi oil company Aramco (20%) and the Chinese manufacturer Geely, owner of brands such as Volvo, Polestar or Lynk&Co, which would take 40%.
This, within a plan -similar to the one adopted by other manufacturers such as Ford- to
separate its activities into two areas: one for traditional engines (including hybrid systems) and which would be called Horse;
and another exclusively 100% electric, which would be the aforementioned Ampere,
focused on France.
The costly transformation required by the latter would be financed, in part, with the sale of the majority of the first company.
The latter is another aspect that should be discussed with Nissan.
And, in principle, it would not affect Renault's vehicle manufacturing plants in Spain, although it would affect those for engines (Valladolid) and gearboxes (Seville).
Renault has always said that our country would be the focus of its production of hybrid cars, but also that it will be the second European country where it makes 100% electric cars.
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