It could be different this time.

In recent years, the French Grand Prix usually promised a very sluggish Sunday afternoon.

French lightness of being?

Not in Formula 1.

Sonke Sievers

Deputy Head of Department for Sport Online.

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Instead, heavy fare and few overtaking maneuvers on the Paul Ricard race track, named after the inventor of pastis.

Some observers sneered that the tasty, refreshing spirit made from liquorice and aniseed is the best thing about the trip to Provence, because nobody in the paddock is really enthusiastic about this slope.

But whether popular or not, the France trip of the premier class comes at the right time.

Eleven races have been driven, eleven more are still to come.

Ferrari and Red Bull are fighting a hot battle for the world championship, which could, however, do well with a summer breeze from Provence.

Mercedes seems to be on the move.

The Silver Arrows were further behind the leaders than expected in the first two training sessions on Friday, especially behind Ferrari.

Nevertheless, the leader of the past few years, who has not yet won, has good reasons to calculate his chances of winning this Sunday's race (3 p.m. in the FAZ live ticker for Formula 1 and on Sky).

If the Silver Arrows catch up with the two top teams, the acceleration should have a massive impact on the title fight.

A lean year

The Mercedes team from Brackley in central England has won the manufacturers' championship eight times in a row in the past few years and has won the drivers' world championship seven times in a row, until Lewis Hamilton was dramatically dethroned by Max Verstappen last year.

It was already clear early on in the season that a lean year was in store.

The engineers, who were considered infallible, got bogged down in the development of the W13, choosing the wrong path on the way to the new era of ground effect cars.

The series winner of yore is only the best of the rest.

Clearly better than the midfield, but not fast enough to seriously challenge Red Bull and Ferrari.

A miserable twelve laps in the lead illustrate the Mercedes malaise: Red Bull comes in at 336, Ferrari at 311. The Silver Arrows, who are used to success, took seven third places, but haven’t won a race – so far.

The engineers have worked hard, persistently developed the W13 and learned to understand the car and its peculiarities better.

Advantage Mercedes?

The Paul Ricard race track should now suit the Silver Arrows perfectly.

The course is characterized by fast and medium-fast corners.

The drivers can play to the strengths of the W13 on these passages, whereas it weakens in tight corners and on long straights.

In addition, Paul Ricard's asphalt is particularly flat.

This allows the engineers to tune the cars lower, i.e. to drive them with little ground clearance.

The Mercedes needs this to function perfectly.

And the heat!

Tire wear in southern France is higher than anywhere else.

Asphalt temperatures of around 60 degrees Celsius will put additional strain on the Pirelli tires.

Advantage Mercedes: The W13 is considered tire-friendly.

Steady Silver Arrows

The silver ones have the more reliable car than Red Bull and Ferrari.

Lewis Hamilton is the only driver to have finished all races.

The Scuderia in particular can only dream of this: The Reds have already had six retirements and have so far completed the fewest race laps of all teams.

In the extreme heat of Provence, which was even windless on Friday, the stability of Mercedes should be a powerful bargaining chip.

Whether the team can fight for victory in the penultimate race before the summer break will also depend on whether the announced new parts are used – and work.

For the Hungarian Grand Prix next week, Mercedes wants to further develop the W13.

Tip the scales?

Should the silver ones actually prove capable of winning over the course of the season, at least on individual routes, the team could tip the scales in the open duel for the drivers' world championship, which defending champion Max Verstappen in the Red Bull is fighting with Charles Leclerc in the Ferrari.

At half-time, Verstappen leads with 208 to 170 points.

The world champion won six out of eleven races, Leclerc three.

Their teammates, Sergio Perez for Red Bull and Carlos Sainz for Scuderia, each won once.

If the protagonists weakened, there were hardly any beneficiaries, apart from the stable mates or the direct competition.

That could change dramatically if two top teams become three and Mercedes can strike when the opportunity arises.

Then they would steal valuable championship points from the competition, which could make the difference in the billing.

Tactical or technical shortcomings, of which Ferrari in particular already made plenty, carried even more weight.

Should Red Bull and Ferrari leave France with a headache, Mercedes will probably be responsible - and not the excessive consumption of the typical spirit.