If you didn't know that all sorts of things can happen on the many, many kilometers on French roads, including things that the Tour de France drivers cannot influence, you would say after the eighth of 21 stages: That's it.
The winner is certain.
No one will be able to dispute Tadej Pogacar, who is only 22 years old, his second win in a row at the world's largest cycling race.
The UAE Emirates team professional is in a class of his own so far.
Unassailable in the time trial.
Unassailable in the mountains.
His astonishing storm into the yellow jersey, which he took from the Dutchman Mathieu van der Poel on Saturday, was a triumphant drive that left behind a row of heavily beaten competitors. Real opponents were not in sight. Pogacar outclassed everyone in the group of classification drivers in difficult conditions, rain and wind, and drove them to the ground. The day's win went to Belgian Dylan Teuns (Bahrain Victorious), who does not play a role in the overall standings.
While some outliers were allowed to drive a few minutes ahead, the top drivers had gathered in a group around Pogacar for a long time.
Then there was no more fun.
On the penultimate climb, the 1297 meter high Col de Romme, Pogacar attacked just under two kilometers from the summit, and it seemed as if he had switched to a motorcycle.
Only Richard Carapaz, who had slipped into the head role of the Ineos Grenadiers team instead of Geraint Thomas, was initially able to follow him.
Now comes the high mountains
But even the mountain specialist from Ecuador only managed to grip Pogacar's rear wheel a few hundred meters before falling back.
Pogacar left him standing there without saying a word, started up and away.
And Carapaz is not just anyone, Carapaz is the Giro winner of 2019, and someone who was trusted to be able to ride for the overall victory on this tour.
Pogacar took 3:20 minutes from him to the finish.
The first week of the Tour de France had already been paved with headlines.
Terrible mass falls.
Cavendish's comeback among the super sprinters.
Van der Poel's ride in the yellow jersey.
But when it comes to winning the Tour of France, who will triumph on the Champs-Elysees in Paris in the end, it all plays only a minor role.
The big, the decisive stories are written in the high mountains, and the first chapter took place on Saturday on the eighth stage from Oyonnax to Le Grand-Bornand.
150.8 kilometers into the Alps, hard, very hard, but not yet extreme, a starter for the heavy fare that is still to come.
But even the climbs this Saturday, three of the first category, ensured that there was only one favorite for the overall victory in the end: Pogacar.
At the start of the tour a week ago, there were three drivers who were trusted to win the overall race, Pogacar, his compatriot Primoz Roglic (Jumbo-Visma) and the Briton Geraint Thomas.
Two of them said goodbye to the best on Saturday.
Roglic and Thomas lost touch, both paid tribute to fall injuries, but apparently also did not bring the form to the tour that would have been necessary to be able to stand up to Pogacar, in the time trial and in the mountains.
This Sunday is really going into the high mountains.
Mountain driving in its purest form.
The first peak of the highest category.
In the final it goes up to Tignes at an altitude of more than 2000 meters, a brutal incline.
Two years ago Tignes had already prepared for the arrival of the tour, but then a storm with hail, snowfall and mudslides caused the 19th stage to be abandoned.
The organizer had to pull the emergency brake.
The stage on this Sunday is a greeting to Tignes, a compensation for the disappointment from back then. Five hard, sometimes extreme climbs are on the program: Côte de Domancy, Col des Saisies, Col du Pré, Cormet de Roselend, Tignes - a festival for mountain bikers, those specialists who weigh less than a supermodel and still pedal insane watts. After the fireworks that Pogacar burned down on Saturday, many mountain specialists will look forward to the stage with shudders. And with the hope that the Slovenian might take it easy.