In connection with the rapid spread of coronavirus, a number of major international competitions in various sports were threatened. It is not surprising that the UFC 249 tournament fell into the risk zone, in the main duel of which the current lightweight champion Khabib Nurmagomedov and Tony Ferguson should compete. Despite the fact that at the moment the promotion did not report a possible cancellation of the event, and Dana White did assure that the fight would take place in any case, it is likely that the fifth attempt to organize a duel between the two athletes will again fail.
The tournament will be held on time
At the moment, there are several options for the development of events. With the most favorable of them, scientists will be able to quickly find the vaccine against COVID-19 and stop the pandemic. Given that the tournament with the participation of Nurmagomedov and Ferguson is scheduled for April 18, a similar scenario is unlikely. Although billions of dollars are earmarked for the search for the drug, and clinical trials of the vaccine will begin in Seattle on Monday, March 17, experts believe it will take 12 to 18 months to fully administer the drug.
However, if the spread of coronavirus infection can still be quickly stopped, the event will be held according to the plan, and Russian fans will be able to watch the performance of the UFC champion. This will save the promotion from huge financial losses associated with the possible transfer of the show. The Barclays Arena in Brooklyn has already been reserved, broadcasting and production of commemorative products with symbols has been organized, money has been invested in promotion.
It is impossible not to mention the fighters who will suffer to a much greater extent. Many of them are already in the process of preparation and have managed to spend huge amounts of money on camps. If the tournament is canceled, they will most likely lose their fees, and some will also lose bonuses, which will automatically affect their financial situation. True, it cannot be ruled out that some of the UFC expenses for athletes will be reimbursed.
The show will be postponed to the fall
If the situation continues to deteriorate, the UFC may consider holding a show in the fall or winter. The option of transferring it to the summer is not possible, since at that moment Nurmagomedov will restore the body after Ramadan. He will need 45 days to bring his health in order, after which he will have to conduct a full-fledged training camp. Ferguson can only wait until his counterpart is ready to conduct the 29th battle in his career.
However, for Tony, everything can turn out less successfully. If the situation with coronavirus resolves in late spring - early summer, then Conor McGregor will get a chance to hold his second match in 2020. In this case, he can manage to deal with Justin Gatzy and fulfill the condition for a rematch with Habib. After that, the choice will remain with the leadership of the UFC, which is very likely to make a choice in favor of the most high-profile battle in the history of mixed martial arts and leave Ferguson behind.
Only Nurmagomedov himself can always prevent this, always calling the battle with Ferguson a priority. A Russian can force the UFC leadership to leave the American as the first contender, but on condition that in the future he will fight with the Irishman.
The tournament will be held without spectators
This option is by far the most likely. Although the UFC will lose a solid share of revenue due to the lack of fans in the stands, it will still be able to make a profit. It's no secret that the Absolute Fighting Championship gains a lot from the sale of paid broadcasts (PPV) and, unlike many other sports, is able to avoid serious financial losses due to the pandemic. This is what Dana White said last Saturday.
He also noted that at the moment, none of the planned UFC tournaments are at risk. In the best case, the organization will continue to bend its line and hold all of them, and in the worst case, it will refuse low-profit regional shows and focus on license plates. This may be due to the fact that the broadcasts of smaller events are carried out by the ESPN media holding, and are also available through a Fight Pass subscription, which makes them less profitable.
With such a development of events, the Absolute Fighting Championship may well choose the loudest and status fights and add them to the card of paid tournaments, which will make them even more intense and attractive. Thus, the composition of the participants will be even more stellar, which will be a worthy compensation for fans who were left without watching the show on a regular basis.
Show will be canceled
However, one should not exclude that the circumstances will be stronger, which is why the UFC will be forced to refuse to hold a tournament with the participation of Nurmagomedov and Ferguson, as well as a number of others. The reason may be a sharp deterioration in the situation with coronavirus or tightening conditions for events in New York. The promotion management will no longer be able to maintain a firm position and will be forced to cancel all planned events.
Another possible reason for taking tougher measures could be a positive test for a new coronavirus from one of the participants in either the tournament or the camp in which one of the fighters was trained. It was this scenario that made the NBA urgently suspend the season, because its continuation could well lead to a mass epidemic among basketball players.
Of course, the UFC has much more leverage in this matter. They can suspend an infected athlete temporarily and find a replacement for him. But this scheme works under one condition: the situation does not apply to the champion and the first applicant. If the coronavirus is found at Nurmagomedov or Ferguson, the tournament will immediately be in danger of cancellation. Although matchmakers can find a way out even with such a development of events. They can either release Conor to replace Tony, or organize a battle for the time zone.